Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 25, 2014, 01:24:10 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  International General Discussion (Moderators: Peter, afleitch)
| | |-+  UK Opinion Polls Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 23 Print
Author Topic: UK Opinion Polls Thread  (Read 45049 times)
PASOK Leader Hashemite
Hashemite
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31484
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #75 on: August 03, 2008, 07:54:33 pm »
Ignore

I guess I can add the other poll here.

Angus - Reid says...





Funny how both polls have it at a sixteen point lead.

After checking, it's a Populus poll.
Logged

afleitch
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21977


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #76 on: September 17, 2008, 01:31:56 pm »

Ipsos Mori show Tories breaking 50%

CON: 52%
LAB: 24%
LIB: 15%

'Tis a silly poll but...

Seat forecast on a uniform swing

CON 488
LAB 121
LIB 13

CON MAJ 326
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52234


View Profile
« Reply #77 on: September 17, 2008, 01:35:20 pm »
Ignore

This is going to be one hilarious election (whenever it happens).
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56838
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #78 on: September 17, 2008, 01:50:38 pm »
Ignore

Ipsos Mori show Tories breaking 50%

CON: 52%
LAB: 24%
LIB: 15%

'Tis a silly poll but...

Seat forecast on a uniform swing

CON 488
LAB 121
LIB 13

CON MAJ 326


Desperate Spinner: our vote is holding up! This is the first Mori poll in months that it's not fallen further off a cliff! Recovery!!!!!

A Different Desperate Spinner: 121 seats is a whole 69 more than we managed in 1931; and boundaries then were more favourable to us than they are now!!!!

But, seriously...

I heard that the LibDem figure was actually 12%. Not that it matters; this isn't a poll done to measure public opinion so much as it is to change the opinions (in a newsworthy direction, whatever that is) of a small group of people next week or so. I know, I know, I'm a dreadful (to paranoid) cynic about that sort of thing, but this time the chances of me being wrong are rather small. Especially given the source, so to speak. I guess we'll see more polls like this over the next few days, but hopefully not quite so comical.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
afleitch
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21977


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #79 on: September 17, 2008, 02:01:29 pm »

Ipsos Mori show Tories breaking 50%

CON: 52%
LAB: 24%
LIB: 15%

'Tis a silly poll but...

Seat forecast on a uniform swing

CON 488
LAB 121
LIB 13

CON MAJ 326


Desperate Spinner: our vote is holding up! This is the first Mori poll in months that it's not fallen further off a cliff! Recovery!!!!!

A Different Desperate Spinner: 121 seats is a whole 69 more than we managed in 1931; and boundaries then were more favourable to us than they are now!!!!

But, seriously...

I heard that the LibDem figure was actually 12%. Not that it matters; this isn't a poll done to measure public opinion so much as it is to change the opinions (in a newsworthy direction, whatever that is) of a small group of people next week or so. I know, I know, I'm a dreadful (to paranoid) cynic about that sort of thing, but this time the chances of me being wrong are rather small. Especially given the source, so to speak. I guess we'll see more polls like this over the next few days, but hopefully not quite so comical.

It's all good fun. It has the Tories winning Glasgow North for example. I think it's as wrong as the 50%+ Labour got in polls in '95-'96.

However...

I think it points to movement towards the Conservatives that should see it form the next government. It is also pointing towards Mr Cameron being given a landslide (at around the same time the economy picks up which we will, of course take the credit for even if we had nothing to do with it as all governments do Smiley ). This will probably be enough to secure Mr Cameron two terms.

I'm a bit like Pym when it comes to landslides, but I can't deny one would be nice to experience.
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21977


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #80 on: September 17, 2008, 02:22:40 pm »

Speaking of which we are doing some 'testing of the waters' in Lanark and Hamilton East. We are a little hopeful of coming from 4th to 2nd here.
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #81 on: September 17, 2008, 02:30:50 pm »
Ignore

Speaking of which we are doing some 'testing of the waters' in Lanark and Hamilton East. We are a little hopeful of coming from 4th to 2nd here.
With the SNP first?
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
afleitch
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21977


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #82 on: September 17, 2008, 02:47:45 pm »

Speaking of which we are doing some 'testing of the waters' in Lanark and Hamilton East. We are a little hopeful of coming from 4th to 2nd here.
With the SNP first?

We don't tend to think about the other parties Tongue I think we can come in 3rd myself and that's about it.

I think the SNP can overhaul double digit Labour majorities in a host of seats from Edinburgh East to Livingston. However it is very difficult to predict. Seats like Stirling are particularly tricky. If SNP popularity takes a slide and Labour remain low then it makes everything interesting. I would expect an unhealthy number of 3 or even 4 way marginals.

While I don't expect them to outpoll Gordon Brown in his seat I would bet a few pennies on it anyway. Alistair Darling is probably the biggest scalp, if the Tories can benefit in Edinburgh SW
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52234


View Profile
« Reply #83 on: September 17, 2008, 02:55:34 pm »
Ignore

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister.  Sad

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22231
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #84 on: September 17, 2008, 03:00:13 pm »
Ignore

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister.  Sad

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

you don't like Cameron?
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52234


View Profile
« Reply #85 on: September 17, 2008, 03:02:33 pm »
Ignore

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister.  Sad

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

you don't like Cameron?

No. The man comes across as, and apparently is, a total phoney. I've never been a fan.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22231
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #86 on: September 17, 2008, 03:05:02 pm »
Ignore

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister.  Sad

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

you don't like Cameron?

No. The man comes across as, and apparently is, a total phoney. I've never been a fan.

shame actually...I thought we might find something to agree on politically.

I do like him. Smiley

But regardless who the leader is, I'd vote Conservative in Britain right now.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2008, 03:44:38 pm by Franzl »Logged
afleitch
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21977


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #87 on: September 17, 2008, 03:07:36 pm »

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister.  Sad

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

Yes and No. It handily combines it with the Euros Grin

However I (hack hat on) believe Brown has every intention of bringing the party down with him. He will hang on until the last possible moment in 2010.

Going in 2009 I think is better for him TBH. It is anticipated that mid 2010 will see an uptick in the economy and the 'mini-boom' that will bring. With the Tories in the door they will simply claim credit for it or be associated with it at the very least. Always remember that the Tories got a drubbing in 1997 after 3 years of solid growth on the part above the Eurozone average. We may end up with a Tory landslide, but it will provide them with a years worth of a shaky economy and all the problems that may entail if the recovery is not as strong as is hoped.

If they go into the election whenever it is, if they privately prepare for defeat (unlike the Tories in '97) they will be all the better for it.
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #88 on: September 17, 2008, 03:38:51 pm »
Ignore

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister.  Sad

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

you don't like Cameron?

No. The man comes across as, and apparently is, a total phoney. I've never been a fan.
Yeah. Kind of figured he's not your type of Tory. Smiley
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56838
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #89 on: September 17, 2008, 04:26:16 pm »
Ignore

It has the Tories winning Glasgow North for example.

Now that is rather amusing Smiley

However...
Quote
I think it points to movement towards the Conservatives that should see it form the next government. It is also pointing towards Mr Cameron being given a landslide (at around the same time the economy picks up which we will, of course take the credit for even if we had nothing to do with it as all governments do Smiley ). This will probably be enough to secure Mr Cameron two terms.

Meh. I won't criticise thee for fantasising this time Grin

Though I'll say that you're always better off being happy with what you have now than looking for better and better news in the years to come (an interesting flaw in modern society is the latter trait). Best way to avoid disillusionment really.

(fwiw I still expect a Tory majority of between 40 and 60 at the next election. Though I'm not stubborn enough to avoid lowering or raising that if the facts do change. I'll also stick my neck out and say that the swing (whatever it is) will be highest in suburban areas, especially post 1970's ones and especially ones with a lot of growth in the past decade).
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22510
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: -4.35

View Profile
« Reply #90 on: September 19, 2008, 02:27:11 am »
Ignore

     Why do I suspect that this election is never going to happen while the Tories are polling ahead by such large margins. Tongue
Logged

Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8507
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -8.35

View Profile
« Reply #91 on: September 19, 2008, 02:39:40 am »
Ignore

Although I had a feeling that David Cameron was going to wipe the floor with Gordon Brown in the upcoming poll regarding next year's general election, I didn't expect Cameron to break the near invincible glass ceiling in UK political polls of 50 percent. It took myself by surprise, even my Global Economics teacher as I stated Holy S**t upon learning Cameron's achievement and learning that Gordon Brown has a worse popularity rating than George W. Bush.
Logged



Here's to the State of Richard Nixon

Some things are better left covered up.
PASOK Leader Hashemite
Hashemite
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31484
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #92 on: September 19, 2008, 06:53:23 am »
Ignore

Guys, it's one poll in 2008. This election could be in two years time.
Logged

afleitch
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21977


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #93 on: September 19, 2008, 07:02:21 am »

Guys, it's one poll in 2008. This election could be in two years time.

True. But the Tories have maintained a 10% then a 15-20+% lead in the polls for some months now. The Tories target is a 42% vote share. They may exceed that but they won't get over a 50% share. To do so, and to heap up a majority of 200-300 would be dangerous for the British democractic process.

I will accept a Tory landslide that is enough to keep them in power for 2 or 3 terms. But I don't want a 1931 style rout.
Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6030
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #94 on: September 19, 2008, 09:37:50 am »
Ignore

I will accept a Tory landslide that is enough to keep them in power for 2 or 3 terms. But I don't want a 1931 style rout.

A super majority is not a good thing...

Quote from: Benjamin Disraeli
No government can be long secure without a formidable opposition. It reduces their supporters to that tractable number which can be managed by the joint influences of fruition and hope. It offers vengeance to the discontented, and distinction to the ambitious; and employs the energies of aspiring spirits, who otherwise may prove traitors in a division or assassins in a debate.
Logged
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56838
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #95 on: September 19, 2008, 11:30:39 am »
Ignore

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
afleitch
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21977


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #96 on: January 22, 2009, 04:39:56 pm »

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.

Speaking of panic and showing what a moveable lot the voters are.

Probably best for an update. The Tories began to dive in September falling below 40% in one ComRes poll in October and sinking below 40% 'for real' in mid December. Labour soared above 30% to hit 35-36 in mid December with a Tory lead of a few %

But 2009 has painted a different picture so far with leads of 10, 9, 13 and 14, putting the Tories back to pre conference levels, but not near the inflated summer lead.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #97 on: January 22, 2009, 04:52:18 pm »
Ignore

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.

Which makes the likelihood of such situation....

Well, I'd put the odds at decently high.  Much higher than you might think.
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21977


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #98 on: January 22, 2009, 05:06:23 pm »

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.

Which makes the likelihood of such situation....

Well, I'd put the odds at decently high.  Much higher than you might think.

I actually agree with that statement. Even if Brown waits until 'last moment 2010' and the economy is spluttering to life again, what is behind him may haunt him. This recession may break all sorts of post war 'records' - economic contraction, bailouts, bankruptcies and even break Thatcher's unemployment record. What will the government have going for it?

I doubt Labour will fall below 150 seats or anthing calamatous, but a 1997 style rout is a possibility. It will be interesting to see the strength of the SNP at national level and what that could translate to. On that note I'd still put a flutter on Brown loosing his seat.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #99 on: January 22, 2009, 05:10:16 pm »
Ignore

Elections like 1931 are only possible in an atmosphere of mass panic.

Which makes the likelihood of such situation....

Well, I'd put the odds at decently high.  Much higher than you might think.

I actually agree with that statement. Even if Brown waits until 'last moment 2010' and the economy is spluttering to life again, what is behind him may haunt him. This recession may break all sorts of post war 'records' - economic contraction, bailouts, bankruptcies and even break Thatcher's unemployment record. What will the government have going for it?

I doubt Labour will fall below 150 seats or anthing calamatous, but a 1997 style rout is a possibility. It will be interesting to see the strength of the SNP at national level and what that could translate to. On that note I'd still put a flutter on Brown loosing his seat.

Well, with what Britain's doing right now in terms of economic policies, there's about 100 times more likely chance of serious currency devaluation or outright debt default before the election than any attempt of an economic recovery.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 23 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines