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Author Topic: UK Opinion Polls Thread  (Read 43378 times)
Sibboleth Bist
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« Reply #350 on: November 22, 2010, 09:40:10 pm »
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Ah, the famous villages of Glasgow.

---

All questions... answered. Once again:

Quote
People in Britain are divided between the Red Party, the Blue Party and people who don’t like either. The main dividing line between the parties is that followers of the Red Party say ‘bath’ and followers of the Blue Party say ‘barth’. All subsequent policy differences stem from this fundamental linguistic division, as people who say ‘bath’ are more likely to live in small houses and follow football than people who say ‘barth’, while people who say ‘barth’ are more likely to have gone to university and to pretend to follow football than people who say ‘bath’. The ‘bath/barth’ division has dominated British politics since 1924.

People who do not like either Party do so for different reasons. The largest group (who support the Yellow Party) think that what matters is not how words are pronounced, but the manner in which they are uttered. They tend to argue that supporters of the Red and Blue parties are wrong to say ‘bath’ or ‘barth’ like this when they ought to say either like that. Supporters of the Yellow Party tend to like muesli or tractors but never both. Other parties include the Purple Party (who want to invade Belgium), the Whites Only Group (who hate people with dark skins and like to shave their heads – presumably to prove their whiteness) and the Green Party (who say ‘barth’ but also like trees and soft drugs). In addition, there are the Blue and White Party (who say ‘bath’ but are supported by people who would say ‘barth’ if they lived south of the wall and who want a divorce) and the Red and Green Party (who say ‘bath’ in an unusual way and who want a trial period of seperation but won’t comment on suggestions of divorce).

Finally there are the Northern Ireland Parties. They are divided over the correct position that a bowler hat should be worn in and used to shoot each other for reasons that make no sense.

I may have to adjust this at some point, due to the changes in the position of the Yellow Party, but as a guide to the last election it's fine.
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afleitch
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« Reply #351 on: November 23, 2010, 05:31:12 am »

I may have to adjust this at some point, due to the changes in the position of the Yellow Party, but as a guide to the last election it's fine.

North of the wall the divide is clearly between 'bath' and 'beth.' Those who say 'beth' support the Yellow Party or the Blue Party if they have a surname as a first name and support the Blue and White Party if they don't. They are fans of the field sport with the squashed ball or if surrounded by round ball fans; Partick Thistle. Those who say 'bath' vote for the Red Party (from 2007-2010 The Broon Party) even if they now own the type of house where there is clearly a 'beth.' They are fans of the field sport with the round ball. Those who are concerned about bowler hat etiquette but say 'bath' and like the round ball now also vote for the Blue and White Party as they are concerned that the Red Party is too Green (not be be confused with Green Green, but rather green green but of course to explain all that would just be silly). There are also some supporters of the Fake Tan Party (subsequently Faketanidarity) who want to be redder than the average Scot.
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« Reply #352 on: November 23, 2010, 08:22:11 am »
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By "rural areas" I'm referring to N. England and Scotland.

The rural parts of both of those areas usually vote Tory, Lib Dem or SNP.
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« Reply #353 on: November 30, 2010, 09:07:53 pm »
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This will bring a smile to a few people's faces - Lab and Con alike.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2894
« Last Edit: November 30, 2010, 09:25:06 pm by Refudiate »Logged

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« Reply #354 on: December 01, 2010, 04:13:58 pm »
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Angus Reid/Political Betting
40 (+3)
35 (nc)
13 (-2)

YouGov/The Sun
41 (+1)
38 (-2)
11 (+1)
« Last Edit: December 01, 2010, 05:32:26 pm by Refudiate »Logged

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« Reply #355 on: December 01, 2010, 06:17:16 pm »
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Angus Reid/Political Betting
40 (+3)
35 (nc)
13 (-2)

YouGov/The Sun
41 (+1)
38 (-2)
11 (+1)

So, the day has come that Angus Reid is more pleasant to read than Yougov.
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« Reply #356 on: December 01, 2010, 08:05:19 pm »
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Amused that Angus Reid are still working here; presumably they've made certain major adjustments to their weighting. Anyway, why are YouGov still doing daily polls? During an election that's quite interesting, outside one? Obviously because The Scum is paying them to, but why is The Scum paying them to do that? Someone at YouGov must be very good at scamming newspapermen.
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« Reply #357 on: December 01, 2010, 08:06:26 pm »
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Kellner?
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« Reply #358 on: December 02, 2010, 03:36:12 am »
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What does everyone expect the media shifting to no no, Miliband really is rubbish will have on the polls?
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« Reply #359 on: December 18, 2010, 02:44:04 pm »
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ComRes online/Independant on Sunday

39 (+1)
37 (nc)
11 (-2)

If we had STV, we'd need a 3 party government probably... oh dear, the Liberals are on death's door, surely.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2010, 05:11:47 pm by Refudiate »Logged

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« Reply #360 on: December 22, 2010, 05:10:54 pm »
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This month's YouGov Welsh Assembly:

Const:
44 (nc)
23 (+2)
21 (nc)
6 (-3)

Reg:
42 (+1)
22 (+2)
21 (+1)
5 (-4)
5 (+1) (Yes, it's UKIP...)

And tonight's national:
42 (nc)
41 (+1)
8 (-1)

It's numbers like this which leave me waiting in anticipation to see Election Day 2015, especially Nick Clegg's reaction.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2010, 05:14:12 pm by Refudiate »Logged

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« Reply #361 on: December 22, 2010, 05:14:51 pm »
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Those libdem numbers are pretty damning.Smiley
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« Reply #362 on: December 22, 2010, 06:36:23 pm »
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The tables show that the LibDems are tied with the Communist Party in the North Wales region.
http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ITVWales-DecemberPolling-221210.pdf

And we're only 7 months in folks...
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« Reply #363 on: December 22, 2010, 06:58:24 pm »
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And we're only 7 months in folks...

Doesn't that work both ways though? If the situation improves, wouldn't the Lib Dems benefit?
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« Reply #364 on: December 22, 2010, 07:24:55 pm »
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The tables show that the LibDems are tied with the Communist Party in the North Wales region.
http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ITVWales-DecemberPolling-221210.pdf

Amusing, though poll internals are always dodgy, YouGov poll internals doubly so (a consequence of the panel system) and North Wales has been one of the weakest parts of the U.K for the LibDems since 1992. Still, lol.
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« Reply #365 on: December 22, 2010, 07:26:39 pm »
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And we're only 7 months in folks...

Doesn't that work both ways though? If the situation improves, wouldn't the Lib Dems benefit?

The usual tendency is for the polling position of the government to erode throughout the Parliament, until the last few months before the election. O/c the Con/Lib split shown by YouGov is a little different to that shown by other polling firms; they tend not be quite so extreme.
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« Reply #366 on: December 23, 2010, 07:55:47 am »

Bear in mind 'politics' hasn't really started back up again since the GE; at least not in people's minds.

We had an overload at the start of the year with expenses, then the GE then the summer, then the conference season and then a few piddling weeks before the festive season. Business as usual will start up again in the New Year

Also the Lib Dems often do creep back down between elections; it's a bigger drop than usual but I don't think it presents a true picture. The Lib Dems still remain a powerful 'not Labour/not Tory' choice for many voters.

Oh - and can I also thank Labour supporters and those who sympathise in the media for focusing your guns on the Lib Dems for the past 6 months. You've hardly given the Tories a challenge Wink If the fall out from May 2010 is all you focus on for the next few years then that would be super - k thnx.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2010, 07:57:53 am by afleitch »Logged

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« Reply #367 on: December 23, 2010, 09:21:47 am »
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Also the Lib Dems often do creep back down between elections

When Joe Public forget that they even exist. Hardly an excuse now...

Gotta feel sorry for the Tories though. If they had a majority, they wouldn't have all this dysfunction and division dragging them down. The Liberals are harming any potential for good government.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2010, 09:26:42 am by Refudiate »Logged

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« Reply #368 on: December 23, 2010, 10:16:27 am »
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Also the Lib Dems often do creep back down between elections

When Joe Public forget that they even exist. Hardly an excuse now...

Gotta feel sorry for the Tories though. If they had a majority, they wouldn't have all this dysfunction and division dragging them down. The Liberals are harming any potential for good government.

If anything being part of a popular coalition would have propelled them ahead of Labour. It really is emblematic for how impopular the coalition is with Libdem voters or other left-leaning voters that the party not only isn't polling above their GE total but have instead lost 2/3rds of that support.
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« Reply #369 on: December 23, 2010, 12:19:38 pm »
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The Lib Dems still remain a powerful 'not Labour/not Tory' choice for many voters.

But do they? For the most part LibDem ministers sound no different to Tory ones, and in terms of media profile it is only ministers that they have. Well, with the exception of the increasingly pathetic Simon Hughes, and his public vacillations on seemingly everything are unlikely to have the sort of positive impact that he presumably assumes likely. What the LibDems did by going into coalition with the Tories in the way that they did (ministers in every department rather than concentrations in certain areas) was change their role within the political system dramatically. They can't play the role of generic protest choice any more, they can't claim to represent anything radically different to the two mass parties and an end has probably come to representing themselves essentially different things in different parts of the country without absurdity. Their local government base is probably going to be annihilated in most major local authorities over the next few years as the rule of anti-government protest kicks in (and no amount of pounding the pavements looking out for dog sh!t can stop that. Plenty of decent 'local champion' type Labour councillors lost 1997-2009 and plenty of the same type  of councillor - though Tory - lost 1980-1996), something that will have consequences, though basically unpredictable ones.

Now, all of this doesn't mean that they're doomed to disappear down the plughole, but it does mean that they'll have to seriously reconsider what they are actually for.
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« Reply #370 on: December 23, 2010, 12:23:19 pm »

Also the Lib Dems often do creep back down between elections

When Joe Public forget that they even exist. Hardly an excuse now...

Gotta feel sorry for the Tories though. If they had a majority, they wouldn't have all this dysfunction and division dragging them down. The Liberals are harming any potential for good government.

If the Tories had a small majority I can assure there would have been more 'dysfunction' courtesy of the backbench 'awkward squad.'

I do wonder whether 'potential for good government' will matter come May when Labour tries to form an administration at Holyrood. The SNP aren't going around trashing the Lib Dems for example Wink
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« Reply #371 on: January 06, 2011, 05:04:21 pm »
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Lab 43
Con 39
LD 7

Tonight's YouGov. The LDs hit another all time low. Labour only behind the Coalition by 3%.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2011, 05:07:32 pm by Refudiate »Logged

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« Reply #372 on: January 07, 2011, 01:02:24 am »
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LD 7

Tonight's YouGov. The LDs hit another all time low.


MORI/Times, 21/8/89, LD 4%
MORI/Times, 26/7/89, LD 4%
MORI/Times, 27/6/89, LD 4%
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« Reply #373 on: January 07, 2011, 01:29:57 am »
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Ok Cameron seriously needs to drop Clegg and either have the balls to call another election or try and govern with a minority government. What good is the man doing him? Nothing, all he was full of hotair during the campaign, and a wasted vote on the part of the electorate that could have saved Britain from going through the travesty of him in government if they had actually voted for real change in the Tories or voted Labour.
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« Reply #374 on: January 07, 2011, 01:35:22 am »
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Ok Cameron seriously needs to drop Clegg and either have the balls to call another election or try and govern with a minority government. What good is the man doing him? Nothing, all he was full of hotair during the campaign, and a wasted vote on the part of the electorate that could have saved Britain from going through the travesty of him in government if they had actually voted for real change in the Tories or voted Labour.

Why on Earth would he do that?
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The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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