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Author Topic: UK Opinion Polls Thread  (Read 40650 times)
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« Reply #500 on: April 18, 2012, 04:42:48 pm »
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Quote from: Robot Rominee on April 18, 2012, 04:24:51 pm
Quote from: food justice on April 18, 2012, 04:19:44 pm
Shouldn't they put Farage in that poll now?

One would think, but it'd mess up comparisons with past polls.

He'd definitely poll above Clegg, and would probably have an outside chance of making second...
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« Reply #501 on: April 18, 2012, 04:44:41 pm »
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But since UKIP haven't won any seats yet, let's not run away with ourselves, eh?
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« Reply #502 on: April 18, 2012, 04:50:07 pm »
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Quote from: food justice on April 18, 2012, 04:42:48 pm
Quote from: Robot Rominee on April 18, 2012, 04:24:51 pm
Quote from: food justice on April 18, 2012, 04:19:44 pm
Shouldn't they put Farage in that poll now?

One would think, but it'd mess up comparisons with past polls.

He'd definitely poll above Clegg, and would probably have an outside chance of making second...

He'd probably tie with Clegg and he'd be nowhere near second. Barely anyone know who Nigel Farage is would only be a minor reason for that.
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afleitch
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« Reply #503 on: April 18, 2012, 04:52:33 pm »
Quote from: Leftbehind on April 18, 2012, 04:44:41 pm
But since UKIP haven't won any seats yet, let's not run away with ourselves, eh?

Worth noting that on a forced choice question, Labour's lead with YouGov would be cut to 4. The UKIP protest in opinion polls is something we've seen in the past and usually dissapates. I'm not worried given we still have 3 years left to go.
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« Reply #504 on: April 19, 2012, 04:16:01 pm »
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Presumably a bit of an outlier, but tonight's YouGov has Labour on 45%, 13 points ahead of the Tories.  Lib Dem retention is down to 29% (there's going to be a large margin of error on that, though).

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/21o4h4zdaz/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-190412.pdf
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« Reply #505 on: April 20, 2012, 03:46:20 pm »
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Quote from: YL on April 19, 2012, 04:16:01 pm
Presumably a bit of an outlier, but tonight's YouGov has Labour on 45%, 13 points ahead of the Tories.  Lib Dem retention is down to 29% (there's going to be a large margin of error on that, though).

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/21o4h4zdaz/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-190412.pdf

But Ed's not doing well enough. Roll Eyes
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« Reply #506 on: April 23, 2012, 01:50:54 pm »
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Labour take an 8% lead with ICM (!!!!)!

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/5223

Political Betting must be in uproar, given the gold standard's getting YouGov style leads.
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« Reply #507 on: April 23, 2012, 05:18:10 pm »
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Speaking of which, another record 13% lead.
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« Reply #508 on: April 28, 2012, 05:09:33 pm »
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YouGov.

40-29-10-10

29! Never thought i'd see the day.
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afleitch
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« Reply #509 on: April 28, 2012, 05:47:15 pm »
Populus has a 5 point gap.
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« Reply #510 on: April 28, 2012, 08:47:59 pm »
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Do you mean ComRes? Populus' last poll had a 9 point gap.

YG - their lowest Tory figure & highest UKIP figure.

Interesting that there's still 10% for Others with UKIP removed.
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« Reply #511 on: April 29, 2012, 07:07:26 am »
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http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/bkmm9p70rl/YG-Archives-Pol-SundayTimes-results-27-290412.pdf

Diabolical numbers for the blues in there. This double-dip's done them no good, obviously. The gap on net approvals between Cam/Mili has narrowed from a 23% "lead" for Dave, to just 7%. Ed'll soon be the least hated. Peter Kellner saying that only comparable collapse was for Gordon Brown when he flunked the election that never was.

32% blame the Tory-Liberal cuts, compared to 17% who blame Brown Labour. Stick a fork in them, they're done.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2012, 07:14:57 am by Le changement! C'est maintenant! »Logged

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« Reply #512 on: April 29, 2012, 08:07:33 pm »
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Quote from: Le changement! C'est maintenant! on April 29, 2012, 07:07:26 am
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/bkmm9p70rl/YG-Archives-Pol-SundayTimes-results-27-290412.pdf

Diabolical numbers for the blues in there. This double-dip's done them no good, obviously. The gap on net approvals between Cam/Mili has narrowed from a 23% "lead" for Dave, to just 7%. Ed'll soon be the least hated. Peter Kellner saying that only comparable collapse was for Gordon Brown when he flunked the election that never was.

32% blame the Tory-Liberal cuts, compared to 17% who blame Brown Labour. Stick a fork in them, they're done.

The one thing I'd say that is on the Coalition's side is time. Much could happen for better Smiley  or worse Sad  between now and May 2015

Am I better off than I was two years ago? Yes (nothing to do with the government) and no (much to do with the government)
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« Reply #513 on: May 01, 2012, 04:03:00 pm »
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http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/aial8f44t2/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-010512.pdf

1.5% swing to the Tories in 15 years. Wink
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« Reply #514 on: May 02, 2012, 07:42:49 am »
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YouGov Welsh poll:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-17906118

Topline voting intention figures are as follows:

Westminster (change since 2010 GE): CON 23% (-3), LAB 50% (+14), LD 7% (-13), PC 12%(+1)
Welsh Assembly constituency (change since 2011): CON 19% (-6), LAB 48% (+6), LD 7% (-4), PC 18% (-1)
Welsh Assembly regional (change since 2011): CON 13% (-10), LAB 33% (-4), LD 9% (+1), PC 22% (+4)
Local elections (change since 2008): CON 17% (+1), LAB 48% (+21); LD 7% (-6); PC 14% (-3); Independents and Others 15% (-12)
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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« Reply #515 on: May 02, 2012, 07:53:59 am »
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23% other in the list vote?
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« Reply #516 on: May 02, 2012, 07:55:56 am »
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Quote from: Minion of Midas on May 02, 2012, 07:53:59 am
23% other in the list vote?

Er... alcohol?
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« Reply #517 on: May 03, 2012, 02:03:19 am »
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As mentioned in another thread, 10% UKIP and 9% GRN. Smiley
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« Reply #518 on: May 03, 2012, 10:23:26 am »
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Any Scotland/Wales poll which has such a disapparity between constituency and regional can surely be written off, right?
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« Reply #519 on: May 03, 2012, 02:11:22 pm »
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Depends if you believe Con & Lab voters wouldn't vote elsewhere in a substantive amount when given the opportunity?
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« Reply #520 on: May 03, 2012, 02:13:59 pm »
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It's more that people don't entirely understand what the regional ballot is for, so sometimes you see odd numbers.
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« Reply #521 on: May 06, 2012, 05:54:08 am »
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This weekend's YouGov, not much of it was taken after the election results.

43 - 31 - 9 (UKIP on 8%)

David Cameron approval (his lowest yet)
31 (-1) / 62 (-1)

Ed Miliband approval
27 (nc) / 60 (-5)

Nick Clegg (his lowest too)
17 (-3) / 74 (+1)

Gets worrying for Dave if Ed Miliband starts looking like the least ugly sister, right?

Labour've also taken the lead on the "Which would you prefer to see after the next election?" question, last asked in January.
A Tory government led by David Cameron 36 (-5)
A Labour government led by Ed Miliband 42 (+8)
« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 06:06:47 am by Le changement! C'est maintenant! »Logged

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« Reply #522 on: May 07, 2012, 12:20:51 am »
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How come Milliband's approvals are so crap?
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« Reply #523 on: May 07, 2012, 04:41:36 am »
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Quote from: morgieb on May 07, 2012, 12:20:51 am
How come Milliband's approvals are so crap?

He's hasn't got a good raport with the public and there's still hate towards the last government. We're very much in "plague on all your houses" territory.
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« Reply #524 on: May 09, 2012, 04:42:42 pm »
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He has neither the policies nor the personality to enthuse his supporters, so only receives a lukewarm backing from them, with the unfortunate mantle of being hated by two sets of parties supporters for his attacks on them as pretty much the sole opposition.

Yougov (again) & TNS-BRMB have 13% Labour leads tonight. Also a government approval graph:

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