UK Opinion Polls Thread

[Silent Hunter]

Could someone tell me the purpose of the Lib Dems?  I just don't see it.

Comedy.

[Silent Hunter]

I'm wondering if YouGov were smoking something in that poll .

The Man From G.O.P.- I'd say the 1983 period, but it's a guess.

[Silent Hunter]

What are your views on Electoral Calculus?

[Silent Hunter]

So, I just had my head sawed off by a whiner, so I'll ask this as best I can. Why are Labour MPs not battering down Browns door at this very moment to tear him out of his office.

Simply put, there's no viable alternative leader out there at the moment. Everyone likely is too inexperienced (Milliband), too radical (McDonnell) or guilty by association.

I'm pretty sure we'll lose the next election and a leadership contest is unlikely to change that. A recovery before May 2010 is unlikely.

[Silent Hunter]

Are Tories still underpolled by UK pollsters ?
Is this old story always true, even for 2-3 points ?

At the moment, I doubt it. That's my instinct, though.

[Silent Hunter]

Is there any light anywhere for them? Other than they have reached the bottom (have they?)

The economy might begin to recover early next year. Emphasis on might.

[Silent Hunter]

Probably won't affect the outcome by much. Remember that the economy had 4 years of robust growth after the ERM crisis. In the polls the Tories were ahead of Labour on who best to manage the economy in 1997. A few months of an improving economy will not be enough to reverse Labours deficit on this issue.

No, but it might contract the Tory lead slightly.

[Silent Hunter]

Probably won't affect the outcome by much. Remember that the economy had 4 years of robust growth after the ERM crisis. In the polls the Tories were ahead of Labour on who best to manage the economy in 1997. A few months of an improving economy will not be enough to reverse Labours deficit on this issue.

No, but it might contract the Tory lead slightly.

So reduce a 20+ lead to a 15+ or 10+ lead perhaps? That still means a Conservative victory and at the rate things are going, a landslide. I do expect voters to drift back to Labour as they did for the Tories in 96-97. But I do not believe it will be enough to help Labour anything other than to limit the damage.

Yeah, that's what I meant.

[Silent Hunter]

Big Society speech. Good for the Tories, or bad?

Neutral; it's not going to sway many minds either way. The real time to seriously watch is when the new financial year starts and the cuts really hit; especially with the elections in May.