UK Opinion Polls Thread

[The Man From G.O.P.]

When's the last time a poll showed a lead bigger than the 2nd place party's support?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Let's see how far we've come since I last asked this....



How long till Brown is gone?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Con: 48%
Lab: 28%
Who: 17%






A survey by Ipsos MORI put the Tories up four points on 48%, Labour down two on 28% and the Lib Dems unchanged on 17%.
The Prime Minister's personal ratings are also down.
Almost two thirds (64%) are dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job, and a quarter (26%) are satisfied.
A third (33%) were satisfied with Mr Brown last month, and three in five (59%) dissatisfied.
Sky's political correspondent Glen Oglaza said the survey is "dire news" for Labour.
He said: "This is not the worst poll of Gordon Brown's premiership - that was last September, when the Conservatives hit 52% - but nevertheless it is absolutely dreadful for Labour and very good for the Tories."
Ipsos MORI’s February 2009 Political Monitor was carried out by telephone between February 13 and 15 among 1,001 British adults.

So, I just had my head sawed off by a whiner, so I'll ask this as best I can. Why are Labour MPs not battering down Browns door at this very moment to tear him out of his office. Why are the LD's not about to get traction?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Because Labour are a party of the working class, and the LDs are not. And British politics is all about class.

Ok, so, form that response I can gather Labour has reached the floor of their support levels at somewhere between 22-25%, but that means there's a lot of space to fill, why can't the LDs tame more than a few points off Labour losses?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

When the Labour percentage goes up and down it's usually turnout (ie; within the various parts of society prone to Labour voting, rather than society as a whole) related. At least when we're in an environment in which the swingers have already swung firmly away anyway (which we are right now. Make no mistakes about that).

---

Slightly amusing that of all the polls published over the past few weeks, days even, the one to get the most attention is the one by the company with a very bad record in recent years and which is currently using a largely untested methodology (and much of the bits that aren't untested are a little dubious and tend to greatly magnify swings) Life is funny.

Would you like to be the first to suggest that the poll isn't in the general areas of the public mood?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

People get oddly worried because the Tories only have a 10 point lead.

Isn't that close to the bare minimum of what they need to win enough seats though?

Only on a Uniform National Swing. But the country don't swing like that. A UNS swing in 2005 would have seen a Labour majority of 100. They got 66. It is probably more important who is voting, not how they are voting; if Tory voters come out and vote they get in. If Labour voters stay at home they get in. There doesn't have to be many 'switchers' from Labour to Tory for the Tories to win a majority.

I've spoken to Al about starting a General Election thread with swings, seats and gadgets for the next election.

Which will probably be sooner than most people think

Do it Now

[The Man From G.O.P.]

YouGov

CON 41 (-2)
LAB 22 (-5)
LIB 19 (+1)

Lowest Labour vote share in a Westminster voting intention opinion poll in 60 years of polling

Alex Salmond must be frothing at the mouth at the thought of an election right now.

Big question is where is the -2 and -5 going? the Lib Dems must be soo thrilled to see they still can't catch a break, then again, Lembit Opik looked the fool on BBC today, I'm just not sure if the LD's are catching as much heat as the two big parties.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

YouGov

CON 41 (-2)
LAB 22 (-5)
LIB 19 (+1)

Lowest Labour vote share in a Westminster voting intention opinion poll in 60 years of polling

Alex Salmond must be frothing at the mouth at the thought of an election right now.

Big question is where is the -2 and -5 going? the Lib Dems must be soo thrilled to see they still can't catch a break, then again, Lembit Opik looked the fool on BBC today, I'm just not sure if the LD's are catching as much heat as the two big parties.

The 'Others' share always creeps up around the time of the Euros and this recent crisis has inflated that even more. Seeing a 41% vote share for the Tories and down just 2 points after everything is pleasing. It means the Tory core vote is stronger than people often give them credit for. Cameron this week acted like Blair did when he was in opposition...and I mean that as a compliment.

Yeah, he was swift about it, and gave no doubts anyone could get the chop if they didn't comply. I was surprised to see Brown drag out the "review and examine" language one more (last?) time, I really thought they would try to do better than that.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Am I right in thinking 20% is not the ceiling for the Lib Dems... are they really not going to benefit from Labour's horrible numbers.


That graph is really interesting though. Is it possible they could actually intersect at some point? What kind of reaction would that news story get?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Is there any light anywhere for them? Other than they have reached the bottom (have they?)

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Just watched Margaret Beckett on QT... the crowd reaction was... interesting.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Circulating that Brown will reshuffle the deck chairs after they finish 3rd to the Tories and UKIP. Balls to be Chancellor.

Uh. Ok. Let's pick the guy who might be one of a few people less popular then Darling.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

justin.tv

I see... will I search for "BBC" or what?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

justin.tv

I see... will I search for "BBC" or what?

Remember, Euros will be covered on Sunday when the counting takes place.

And most county councils will not be announcing results until Friday.

Yeah, that's really lame. I figured we'd get Euro results tomorrow.

Anyway, this is probably the best link to watch anything live (from around the world) - http://wwitv.com/portal.htm

Not sure it has BBC proper on it.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

I do believe this might be the best one so far.


http://www.atdhe.net/watchtv4.php?b=n

[The Man From G.O.P.]

What does everyone expect the media shifting to no no, Miliband really is rubbish will have on the polls?