Based on the ComRes poll (for fun) and the probabilistic forecast we would see the following
CON 347
LAB 229
LIB 44
If Hague or Howard was still Tory leader, that map would give me nightmares. But since Cameron is okay with me, its all cool. Labour can't win indefinetely.
You show the Lib Dems going from 62 seats to 44. I understand why their vote would decline (Iraq fueled their 2005 gains) but I can't see large numbers of people switching from Lib Dem to the Tories, the ideologies are too different. Or do Lib Dems hate Labour more than the Tories?
In rural and suburban England, do the Tories overperform because Labour and the Lib Dems split the left wing vote? All that blue reminds me of a generic Kansas or Nebraska county map.
