UK Opinion Polls Thread

[minionofmidas]

A rolling thread is certainly preferable to a new thread for every poll. And yes, here's better than over at elections.

[minionofmidas]

I'd disagree there; polls during election time can magnify short term issues in the news and ignore long term trends.

Polls never have anything to do with long term trends; only General Elections do and some of those should probably be ignored as flukes.

Quite a lot of them, actually ... but of course that way of looking at it has little to recommend itself to professional politicians whose jobs are on the line ... or even to anyone whose future may depend on the next election's outcome.

[minionofmidas]

Speaking of which we are doing some 'testing of the waters' in Lanark and Hamilton East. We are a little hopeful of coming from 4th to 2nd here.

With the SNP first?

[minionofmidas]

Such a shame that Cameron gets to be Prime Minister. 

I'm always asking this question...What's the word on an election being called? Is 2009 out of the question?

you don't like Cameron?

No. The man comes across as, and apparently is, a total phoney. I've never been a fan.

Yeah. Kind of figured he's not your type of Tory.

[minionofmidas]

On the day Nick Clegg delivers a gaffe filled PMQs, YouGov brings us:
44 (+1) - 35 (nc) - 13 (-1)

Lowest for the LibDems from YouGov since 16th November 2007.

It's a wonder the Conservatives aren't pushing Cameron to throw Clegg under the bus and go to the country

What's the new dissolution rules again? 66% and parliament's dissolved?

But it's not passed into law yet!

[minionofmidas]

Thought they were the SaLaDs?

The new party was named Social and Liberal Democrats (SLD); after shortening this to The Democrats in October 1988, it changed to Liberal Democrats in October 1989.

[minionofmidas]

Interesting. I suppose the "voters" columns are the self-placements of voters, while the other columns are aggregate placements by voters of all parties? Would be interesting to see party's and leader's placements by party support.

[minionofmidas]

fwiw (which is ridiculously little), feeding the last two polls here into a swingometer gives respectively

Labour 375, Con 232, LD 19, other 23

and

Labour 335, Con 282, LD 8, other 24

The 8 LD seats would be Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion, Norfolk North, Twickenham, Bath, and Yeovil.

[minionofmidas]

I like the one seat the others are losing to Labour in the first scenario compared to the second.

Gordon.
That's right. Lol.

[minionofmidas]

I fail to see any poll showing the SNP "opening a lead". Unless you meant against the National Government.

[minionofmidas]

I fail to see any poll showing the SNP "opening a lead". Unless you meant against the National Government.

What is this 'National' Government you speak of?

The English one. It is called the National Government because it is supported by only one of the four nations of the United Kingdom.

[minionofmidas]

It's not artificial - it's sweetened though. More than you would if you whipped your own cream.

[minionofmidas]

My theory is that the Tories look dirty, and saying you back the LibDems is a way of saying "I back Cameron, but he's dirty"

Quite likely, yeah. Intracoalition shifts of that kind are very common where coalitions are common.
Or it's just noise.

[minionofmidas]

23% other in the list vote?