UK Opinion Polls Thread

[politicaltipster]

Hope this is in the correct place, if not feel free to move it.

What does everyone about the lastest YouGov poll. Essentially, I'm projecting a Conservative majority of 30 based on putting the latest polls through Samplemiser (see link for detailed figures). Labour's economic team still have a positive rating for economic competance, which indicates that the damage from the Inland Revenue scandal is only a flesh wound.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/11/23/filtered-polling-data-conservative-majority-of-30/

[politicaltipster]

I might have my own misgivings about these polls but I'm going to project a Conservative majority after putting this (and other polls) through the filtering program Samplemiser.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/11/27/filtered-polling-data-conservative-majority-of-54/

[politicaltipster]

New YG poll. Filtering it through SM produces a Conservative majority of 100 (92 with UNS).
Even a Labour hack like myself is getting a bit pessimistic and I've sold off all my Labour contracts until they fall a bit lower.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/12/16/filtered-polling-data-conservative-majority-100/

[politicaltipster]

New British projections (with Rolling Averages and Polls-of-polls as reference points)

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/british-polling-projections-conservative-majority-of-4/

Very small Conservative majority.

[politicaltipster]

New British projections - hung parliament with Labour as the largest party.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/02/20/british-polling-projections-hung-parliament/

[politicaltipster]

My final Samplemiser prediction for the first preferences FWIW is that Boris Johnson will (unfortunatly) win by 8.15 (though I don’t know about the second preferences).

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/05/01/final-prediction-johnson-leads-by-815/