UK Opinion Polls Thread

[Phony Moderate]

A bit off topic, but has anyone seen the latest European Election Poll?

[Phony Moderate]

I can see both Labour and the Lib Dems falling below the 20% mark at the next election. I think UKIP are going to win a seat or two, and possibly the Greens and the BNP too.

[Phony Moderate]

BIG NEWS:

ICM Westminster Poll:

Conservatives - 40%
Liberal Democrats - 25%
Labour - 22%

Bye bye New Labour.

[Phony Moderate]

My prediction - General Election next month.

[Phony Moderate]

My prediction - General Election next month.

Haha, wow. That would be awesome but why do you feel that way? Do you think Brown thinks it will only get worse and/or he just wants it over with at this point?

I think after these elections are over and Brown is in the Commons, he will feel like being on trial, because Cameron and his buddies will put so much pressure on him to call an election. He will call one in the hope that it gains him some respect and maybe a boost in the polls.

[Phony Moderate]

Can Yankees watch BBC live for tomorrow on their website? (no the iPlayer does not work for us)

justin.tv

[Phony Moderate]

Bump.

We should probably keep the opinion polls in this thread, at least until the next election is called.

[Phony Moderate]

Some interesting polls recently.

YouGov:

National Government - 59% (Tories - 43%, Lib Dems - 16%)
Labour - 36%
Others - 5% (must be the lowest for some time)

ICM:

National Government - 57% (Tories - 41%, Lib Dems - 16%)
Labour - 35%
Others - 8%

[Phony Moderate]

Com(edy)Res(ult) Poll:

National Government - 58% (Tories - 40%, Lib Dems - 18%)
Labour - 31%
Others - 11% (LOL)

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov Poll:

National Government - 57% (Tories - 42%, Lib Dems - 15%)
Labour - 36%
Others - 7%

If these numbers were repeated at the next General Election (based on UNS):

National Government - 343 seats (Tories - 322 seats, Lib Dems - 21 seats)
Labour - 281 seats
Others - 26 seats

National Government majority of 36

[Phony Moderate]

Interestingly, Angus Reid doesn't seem to have conducted a poll since the election.

[Phony Moderate]

OnePoll:

National Government - 63% (Tories - 40%, Lib Dems - 23%)
Labour - 30%
Others - 7%

[Phony Moderate]

Ipsos-Mori Poll:

National Government - 54% (Tories - 40%, Lib Dems - 14%)
Labour - 38%
Others - 8%

[Phony Moderate]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2772

Holyrood constituency: CON 10%(-3), LAB 46%(+1), LDEM 11%(nc), SNP 32%(+3)
Holyrood regional: CON 11%(-1), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 12%(nc), SNP 30%(+2)

[Phony Moderate]

ICM:

37/37/18

The first poll to show Labour not behind the Tories since....

[Phony Moderate]

Sky News "Poll":

43/24/8

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov Government Approval:

Approve - 39%
Disapprove - 41%

[Phony Moderate]

Tonight's YouGov brings yet another new low for the Orange Tories.

43-38-11. LOL

Not long until the two coalition parties aren't even polling above 50% together.

According to ElectoralCalculus, if that poll was repeated in a General Election (on a UNS), Simon Hughes, Alan Beith, Nick Harvey, Chris Huhne and Vince Cable would all be ousted.

[Phony Moderate]

Ipsos/MORI Poll:

National Government - 52% (Tories - 37%, Lib Dems - 15%)
Labour - 37%
Others - 11%

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov at 39-39-13, first tie they've had. I don't know if the bigger story is the tie or the fact that the LDs started conference at 13% and, even after the speech of Clegg's political life, they've soared to... 13%.

Oh dear....I accidentally posted that in the wrong thread....

[Phony Moderate]

Anyway, I think we may see the Lib Dems going into single digits within the next week or two. Some Kennedyite Lib Dems who are not too keen on the coalition may switch their voting intentions to Labour in the aftermath of the leadership election results (albeit, maybe briefly).

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov Poll:

National Government - 51% (Tories - 39%, Lib Dems - 12%)
Labour - 40%
Others - 9%

[Phony Moderate]

ICM/Grauniad: Labour 37, Tories 35, LDems 18

First ICM Labour lead for three years, of course.

Also, the lowest Tory vote share in a poll since the crazy days of the election campaign.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov Poll:

National Goverment - 50% (Tories - 39%, Lib Dems - 11%)
Labour - 41%
Others - 9%

Highest Labour share in a poll since October 2007.

[Phony Moderate]

BPIX Poll:

Tories - 41%
Labour - 37%
Lib Dems - 13%

Angus Reid:

Labour - 38%
Tories - 35%
Lib Dems - 16%

The first time Angus Reid have ever had Labour in the lead.