UK Opinion Polls Thread

[tpfkaw]

Random aside, but I heard the redistricting in the UK after the 2011 census is expected to heavily favor the Conservatives at the expense of Labour (as it heavily favors Labour right now).  Is that true?

[tpfkaw]

Well, I asked a Briton about it on another forum (back in April), and he said that the reason for Labour overrepresentation was the population decline in Labour-dominated areas since the last census, and that they should be expected to lose ground after 2011.

[tpfkaw]

Well, I asked a Briton about it on another forum (back in April), and he said that the reason for Labour overrepresentation was the population decline in Labour-dominated areas since the last census, and that they should be expected to lose ground after 2011.

Marginally, maybe. Institutionally the map favors Labour, but this is because the map is drawn based on population, not voters, and voters in really Labour areas are almost universally less likely to turn out than voters in Conservative areas (really Conservative seats can get as high as close to 80% turnout while really Labour seats can go as low as 50% turnout).

I suppose, but that's true in the US, too, and representation here generally tracks the two-party vote fairly closely, or even favors the Republicans.  I guess it must be because Labour still has a fairly strong rural presence (and the Conservatives a fairly strong urban presence) compared to the Democrats and Republicans over here.

Well, I asked a Briton about it on another forum (back in April), and he said that the reason for Labour overrepresentation was the population decline in Labour-dominated areas since the last census, and that they should be expected to lose ground after 2011.

I'm not the best on boundary commision stuff (you're best asking here), but yeah, we're getting new boundaries and the size of the house of being reduced to 600. As far as I know, the reason you've been given for it isn't entirely true, just partially. Scotland and Wales are currently over represented heavily, compared to England - at the last count, Wales is set to lose 10 seats, I think. Another reason for the numbers "favouring" Labour is the fact that turnout is generally much lower in safe Labour seats than in safe Tory seats, meaning that it takes less votes, on average, to get a Labour MP elected. Nothing, except having pro-Tory boundaries, could prevent this.

And no, we don't do our boundary reviews like the US does. Our last review was before the 2010 election and there was one before the 2005 election (I think) and 1997 before that.

Of course, if the coalition loses the confidence of the house before the boundary commision's finished its review, this is all moot.

Thanks for the explanation.  That's probably the best I'm going to get.

[tpfkaw]

I suppose, but that's true in the US, too, and representation here generally tracks the two-party vote fairly closely, or even favors the Republicans.

Don't forget 35% of Britons didn't vote Labour or Conservative. First-past-the-post, like we have in the UK and US, break down when there's more than two parties in the mix.

Yes, but it's my understanding that the Lib Dems (and most of the other minor parties outside of N. Ireland) mainly take votes from Labour, so that should hurt them more than anyone else, right?

[tpfkaw]

By "rural areas" I'm referring to N. England and Scotland.

[tpfkaw]

ICM/Guardian:
39 (nc)

Who's best place to deal with the nation's problems?
36% Labour

That seems a slight bit odd...

[tpfkaw]

Note that the composition of the current government is given 41% but that the combined vote for its parties is 50.

But that makes sense since the poll asked about "the Coalition" and I'm sure quite a few voters from both parties answered neither, since they would prefer a majority for their party.

[tpfkaw]

YouGov (Jan. 31)

Lab - 42 (-2)
Con - 40 (+2)
Lib - 8 (nc)

[tpfkaw]

Last two polls with a unified "coalition" ticket:

YouGov: Coalition: 352, Lab: 275, Other: 22
ComRes: Lab: 321, Coalition: 304, Other: 24

That clearly seems to be the way to go for Cameron and especially Clegg.

[tpfkaw]

On the other hand a coalition ticket would probably have every single Left-leaning Liberal backbencher calling for Clegg's head.

Their minds might be swayed if there's a good chance they won't be sitting on a bench at all.

[tpfkaw]

2 questions:

How likely is Clegg to lose his own seat (Sheffield Hallam) with the current numbers?

Is the UKIP surge temporary (anger over the budget) or lasting?

[tpfkaw]

Shouldn't they put Farage in that poll now?

[tpfkaw]

Shouldn't they put Farage in that poll now?

One would think, but it'd mess up comparisons with past polls.

He'd definitely poll above Clegg, and would probably have an outside chance of making second...