UK Opinion Polls Thread

[Leftbehind]

That is an ICM poll, right? Checking wikipedia, no other pollster had the LDems so high and Labour so low sfor month.

Yeah ICM tends to consistently state by far the highest Lib Dem support, most of it's accounted for their presumption that 50% of Don't Knows will go back to their former party - which always helps government parties, but especially so when they've disillusioned large swathes of their support like the Lib Dems have done - but even then, there's about 2% either way.

I find it's worth checking the tables to see the figures before the adjustments, in any case.

An interesting poll recently by Yougov on regional representation [tables here] -
"How well or badly do you think the x party represents and understands voters in..." (Good - Neither - Bad - D/K)

Labour;

Scotland North Wales Midlands South

32% | 17% | 26% | 25% 41% | 16% | 23% | 20% 30% | 21% | 23% | 25% 30% | 22% | 26% | 22% 19% | 20% | 43% | 18%

Tory;

Scotland North Wales Midlands South

10% | 17% | 52% | 21% 12% | 18% | 52% | 18% 11% | 22% | 45% | 22% 21% | 22% | 37% | 20% 46% | 16% | 22% | 16%

[Leftbehind]

Don't worry, Scotland will leave and Wales and the North will become unpopulated wastelands.

[Leftbehind]

As we're spoilt for choice recently I thought I'd dig this up.

So, firstly, polling in Lib Dem seats and closely fought targets done by Yougov;

Firstly, vote share in 2010: Lib 41%, Con 32%, Lab 19%
Vote share now: Lab 34% (+15%), Con 29% (-3%), Lib 15% (-26%)
Vote share when those polled above are reminded to think about their own constituency and incumbent (measuring tactical voting): Lab 31% (+12%), Con 28% (-4%), Lib 24% (-17%)

Mayoral vote by Yougov:
Boris 45% (-4%), Ken 40% (-1%), Paddick 7% (+2%), Other 8% (+4%)
Also an Assembly VI done in the same poll;
Constituency: Lab 44%, Con 35%, Lib 11%, Oth 10%
List: Lab 46%, Con 35%, Lib 9%, UKIP 5%, Grn 3%, BNP 1%

Finally, tonight's polls:
Yougov: Lab 43% (+4%), Con 32% (-1%), Lib 8% (-2%), Oth (including UKIP 9%(!!!)) 17% (n/c)
Populus: Lab 42% (+4%), Con 33% (-1%), Lib 11% (n/c), Oth 14% (-2%)
TNSBMRB: Lab 42% (+4%), Con 32% (-3%), Lib 10% (-1%), Oth 16% (n/c)

A mirage of consistency, there.

[Leftbehind]

I don't know what's the funniest part of that. UKIP in 3rd? The fact that the LibDems would still be down to 7 seats even with the "own constituency" question? The Tory's rock hard support base of 36% ebbing away to Hague/Howard levels? Ken being such a crap candidate that he's trailing the party by a (quite frankly) stupid amount against an idiot like Boris?

If the Locals reflect the polls (they won't), gains'll be getting to a stupidly high number.

I think that's a bit unfair to Ken, I'm of the opinion there aren't many Labour characters who could win against the 'lovable buffoon' that is Boris. He's easily more popular than his party, and also attracts goodwill from even the anti-Tory section. The only thing to be changed in hindsight for me is Ken's tax affairs.

[Leftbehind]

2 questions:

How likely is Clegg to lose his own seat (Sheffield Hallam) with the current numbers?

Is the UKIP surge temporary (anger over the budget) or lasting?

 a) slim. Pre-tuition fees (October 2010 to be exact - which will be looked on retrospectively as within the honeymoon period), Ashcroft comissioned a poll in Sheffield Hallam, and even then, the published VI was:
Lib 33% (-20%), Lab 31% (+15%), Con 28% (+5%), Oth 8% (n/c). I think it's safe to say - and Clegg's quoted as one of the casualties of the new Lib Dem poll's implied 50 seat losses - that the Liberals have lost further ground since then.

b) difficult to say at the moment. It's mainly derived from disaffected Tories and overwhelmingly elderly Britons. Many of these get their news from papers that wouldn't be satisfied with Pinochet, so I do think there's a more permanent groundswell for right-of-Tories, but given it's more or less immediately after a budget in which said elderly Tory voters suffered, it does have the appearance of a protest spike.

[Leftbehind]

The re-emergence of the swingometer actually being relevant?



excepting Scotland, of course.

[Leftbehind]

Finally, tonight's polls:
Yougov: Lab 43% (+4%), Con 32% (-1%), Lib 8% (-2%), Oth (including UKIP 9%(!!!)) 17% (n/c)
Populus: Lab 42% (+4%), Con 33% (-1%), Lib 11% (n/c), Oth 14% (-2%)
TNSBMRB: Lab 42% (+4%), Con 32% (-3%), Lib 10% (-1%), Oth 16% (n/c)

A mirage of consistency, there.

Angus Reid: Lab 41%(+1%), Con 29%(-3%), Lib 11%(+1%), Oth (including UKIP 8%) 19% (+2%)
Opinium: Lab 37% (-2%), Con 32% (-2%), Lib 9% (+1%), Oth (including UKIP 10%) 22% (+3%)

It doesn't look like the TNS BMRB tables are up yet, but Populus only have UKIP at 4% in last night's. So there we have it - the mirage of consistency's vanished.

[Leftbehind]

Interested to see that despite these leads, in the preferred government question Labour's actually lost ground since the poll taken before on the first week of April - which you wouldn't expect. 

[Leftbehind]

But since UKIP haven't won any seats yet, let's not run away with ourselves, eh?

[Leftbehind]

Speaking of which, another record 13% lead.

[Leftbehind]

Do you mean ComRes? Populus' last poll had a 9 point gap.

YG - their lowest Tory figure & highest UKIP figure.

Interesting that there's still 10% for Others with UKIP removed.

[Leftbehind]

As mentioned in another thread, 10% UKIP and 9% GRN.

[Leftbehind]

Depends if you believe Con & Lab voters wouldn't vote elsewhere in a substantive amount when given the opportunity?

[Leftbehind]

He has neither the policies nor the personality to enthuse his supporters, so only receives a lukewarm backing from them, with the unfortunate mantle of being hated by two sets of parties supporters for his attacks on them as pretty much the sole opposition.

Yougov (again) & TNS-BRMB have 13% Labour leads tonight. Also a government approval graph:

[Leftbehind]

Record 14 point lead for Lab in Yougov tonight.  

LAB 45%, CON 31%, UKIP 8%, LDEM 7%. Approval -42%.

Long term approval trend, created by Statgeek on UKPR before tonight's figures.

[Leftbehind]

Yougov's trackers on best parties for issues:

[Leftbehind]

Forgot to post the leader's graph:


Oh, and a new Ipsos Mori:
Lab 43% (+5%)
Con 33% (-2%)
Lib 9% (-3%)

[Leftbehind]

Some results worth posting embedded away in some jubilee poll, comparing what was the reality in the 50's when she gained the throne, and their appeal now:

National ID cards
45% In favour
39% Opposed
17% Don't know

In England people are currently charged a prescription fee of £7.65 for drugs prescribed by a doctor, whatever the actual cost of the drugs. The elderly, children, pregnant women and people on benefits are given free prescriptions. In Scotland & Wales there are no prescription charges. Which of the following best reflects your view?
50% All prescriptions should be free
37% The poor, elderly, children and pregnant should get free prescriptions, others should pay a prescription fee
7% Everyone should pay a prescription fee
5% Don't know

National service
50% Would like to see return
40% Wouldn't like to see return
10% Don't know

Corporal punishment in schools
47% Wouldn't like to see return
45% Would like to see return
8% Don't know

Death penalty for murder
46% Would like to see return
43% Wouldn't like to see return
11% Don't know

Rationing of important foods where there is shortages
62% Wouldn't like to see return
25% Would like to see return
13% Don't know

Nationalisation of industries like gas, electricity and telecommunications
58% Would like to see return
23% Wouldn't like to see return
19% Don't know

[Leftbehind]

Haha, we aren't exactly a libertarian paradise are we? I mean, even a plurality of Tory voters support the re-nationalization of gas, electricity and telecommunications.

The last time Yougov done a comprehensive nationalisation poll, of those asked it found:

Public (with >50% support)
Hospitals, primary and secondary schools, prisons, roadwork, rubbish collection, job centres, libraries, water, rail, universities, postal service, elderly carehomes, power stations, national parks

Private (with >50% support)
Mobile telephones, newspapers, supermarkets

Undecided (failing to gain 50% support either way)
Pre-school nurseries, airports, landline telephones, sports centres, banks, television channels, theatres

[Leftbehind]

Yougov have done a poll on how the public defines certain issues/stances as left/right:

[Leftbehind]

The majority Labour + Lab-Lib surpasses 45% for - I believe - the first time, at 46%.

[Leftbehind]

lol at the Liberals coming second in the 'put their own party interest before country' question.