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September 03, 2015, 04:27:19 pm
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| |-+  International General Discussion (Moderators: Peter, afleitch)
| | |-+  Will Vladimir PUtin still be in power TWO years from now.....
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Poll
Question: On December 29 2016- will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?
Yes   -70 (89.7%)
No   -8 (10.3%)
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Total Voters: 78

Author Topic: Will Vladimir PUtin still be in power TWO years from now.....  (Read 1809 times)
ingemann
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« Reply #25 on: August 30, 2015, 03:08:25 pm »
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I can see Putin remaining in power in some form or another until the 2030s or even the 2040s. This is way off topic, but why didn't Putin just simply invade and take over all of Ukraine yet?

Likely because he can't.

Yes he could likely overrun the Ukraine, but it's more complex than that, it's believed the war have cost 2000 Russian soldiers. That's a significant loss for a such limited intervention in a area dominated by pro-Russians with a reformed and modernised army against a broke country with 1/3 of Russia's population with a army 30 years out of date.

A full invasion would cost significant losses, maybe enough to risk a revolt at home, the sanctions would become much uglier, and Ukraine would likely begin to become supported fully by the west with weapon and money.
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Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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« Reply #26 on: September 02, 2015, 12:28:17 pm »
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There are three things that could take out Putin:

1) An Orange Revolution/Euromaidan-style protest campaign led by liberal pro-Westerners (not gonna happen)

2) A challenge from the right by diehard ex-Soviets thinking that Putin "lost" them Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, and maybe even some other places. (Possible, but unlikely)

3) A challenge within his own party/inner circle by disgruntled oligarchs who see Putin as damaging their bottom line with his shenanigans, yet who are generally sympathetic to his causes. In this scenario, either United Russia splits, or rallies around another candidate who can bring stability. (This is the most likely scenario in my mind)

However, none of these will likely play out within two years, so I vote yes.
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Smart power-minded moderately libertarian social democrat

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