Australia General Discussion

[BaconBacon96]

How long until a spill?

Ah I think the Liberals will want to avoid looking like Labor did.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Apparently Abbott has wheeled Margie out... he must be s***ting himself.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Morgan Poll is out... also a day early...

Primaries
LNP: 35% (-2.5)
ALP: 38.5% (+1.5)


TPP (on 2013 preferences)
LNP: 43.5% (-3)
ALP: 56.5% (+3)

TPP (allocated preferences)
LNP: 42.5% (-2.5)
ALP: 57.5% (+2.5)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The thing I don't understand about Abbott's plan is that this budget is largely impossible to pass.

Most of the major reforms and cuts will be dead in the water, in this Senate or the next  - sans the fuel rax rise with Greens support; perhaps the debt levy if Labor end up supporting it and the mining and carbon tax repeals if Abbott does the dance of the seven veils for Palmer.

So surely Abbott has just pissed everyone off for no real gain...

[MaxQue]

The thing I don't understand about Abbott's plan is that this budget is largely impossible to pass.

Most of the major reforms and cuts will be dead in the water, in this Senate or the next  - sans the fuel rax rise with Greens support; perhaps the debt levy if Labor end up supporting it and the mining and carbon tax repeals if Abbott does the dance of the seven veils for Palmer.

So surely Abbott has just pissed everyone off for no real gain...

Theorically, couldn't he call a double dissolution to get a more friendly Senate (in theory, since, right now, it would be suicidal from them)?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The thing I don't understand about Abbott's plan is that this budget is largely impossible to pass.

Most of the major reforms and cuts will be dead in the water, in this Senate or the next  - sans the fuel rax rise with Greens support; perhaps the debt levy if Labor end up supporting it and the mining and carbon tax repeals if Abbott does the dance of the seven veils for Palmer.

So surely Abbott has just pissed everyone off for no real gain...

Theorically, couldn't he call a double dissolution to get a more friendly Senate (in theory, since, right now, it would be suicidal from them)?

He doesn't have a trigger for the DD yet... there is potentially one coming, but the big triggers won't come until after the new Senate sits.

[Mordecai]

I think Turnbull is open to a double-dissolution... not so much the Government.

It's probably his last chance at being Prime Minister, but I don't think Abbott's that stupid.

The thing I don't understand about Abbott's plan is that this budget is largely impossible to pass.

Most of the major reforms and cuts will be dead in the water, in this Senate or the next  - sans the fuel rax rise with Greens support; perhaps the debt levy if Labor end up supporting it and the mining and carbon tax repeals if Abbott does the dance of the seven veils for Palmer.

So surely Abbott has just pissed everyone off for no real gain...

Maybe he deliberately overreached with such a far-right wing budget so that the compromise he thinks he'll get will be what he actually wanted all along. Also, maybe he thinks that he's better off being unpopular right now and that he can count on increased popularity down the road in two years, when he thinks the economy will pick up again.

[Hifly]

The Western Australia Labor Party has voted unanimously to expel Martin Ferguson from the party. Martin Ferguson is not happy.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/23681651/wa-labor-a-national-disgrace

[MaxQue]

The Western Australia Labor Party has voted unanimously to expel Martin Ferguson from the party. Martin Ferguson is not happy.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/23681651/wa-labor-a-national-disgrace

People are usually never happy to be expelled.

[BaconBacon96]

The reason I've never been too keen on Labor is because of things like this.

[Platypus]

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-george-christensen-tells-budget-complainers-to-live-like-impoverished-asians-for-perspective-20140522-38qxh.html

QUEENSLANDAH~!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-george-christensen-tells-budget-complainers-to-live-like-impoverished-asians-for-perspective-20140522-38qxh.html

QUEENSLANDAH~!

At the same time as we cut $8bn from foreign aid?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-george-christensen-tells-budget-complainers-to-live-like-impoverished-asians-for-perspective-20140522-38qxh.html

QUEENSLANDAH~!

At the same time as we cut $8bn from foreign aid?

I guess Australians will be living like impoverished Asians.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well, it sets the bar low at least. Children aren't dying on the street, therefore we're doing great!

[Knives]

I'm starting to think Dennis Napthine, despite delivering a supposedly brilliant budget is completely ed. I mean in 2013, the Libs couldn't even manage 2PP win here in Victoria and recent polling has Labor at 61% to the Libs 39%. I really think Dennis will be our first one timer in ages, which is good.

[Platypus]

I'm moderately confident in predicting the Greens to hold the balance of power in the Legislative Council, but I have no idea for the LA. The extensive redistribution makes it a bit messy, but basically I reckon it comes down to the coalition needing to win seats off Labor in the country and hold onto seats in the Southeast of Melbourne (from Prahran to Frankston* to Ferntree Gully) to win, both of which are possible.

But more likely is Labor winning back a bit of the East of Melbourne. Hard to say really, but I'd say Labor has the edge at this point, but don't necessarily deserve it.

[Knives]

I'm moderately confident in predicting the Greens to hold the balance of power in the Legislative Council, but I have no idea for the LA. The extensive redistribution makes it a bit messy, but basically I reckon it comes down to the coalition needing to win seats off Labor in the country and hold onto seats in the Southeast of Melbourne (from Prahran to Frankston* to Ferntree Gully) to win, both of which are possible.

But more likely is Labor winning back a bit of the East of Melbourne. Hard to say really, but I'd say Labor has the edge at this point, but don't necessarily deserve it.

They do over the Liberals.

[Simfan34]

Maybe he deliberately overreached with such a far-right wing budget so that the compromise he thinks he'll get will be what he actually wanted all along. Also, maybe he thinks that he's better off being unpopular right now and that he can count on increased popularity down the road in two years, when he thinks the economy will pick up again.

I like the guy, but I don't get the impression he's clever enough to do this.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Maybe he deliberately overreached with such a far-right wing budget so that the compromise he thinks he'll get will be what he actually wanted all along. Also, maybe he thinks that he's better off being unpopular right now and that he can count on increased popularity down the road in two years, when he thinks the economy will pick up again.

I like the guy, but I don't get the impression he's clever enough to do this.

But he might think he's clever enough even if he ain't.

[BaconBacon96]

I'm starting to think Dennis Napthine, despite delivering a supposedly brilliant budget is completely ed. I mean in 2013, the Libs couldn't even manage 2PP win here in Victoria and recent polling has Labor at 61% to the Libs 39%. I really think Dennis will be our first one timer in ages, which is good.

All I'm hoping for is that Geoff Shaw loses his seat.

[Talleyrand]

Essential Research has 3 new state polls out.

Labor is up 53-37 in Victoria, while the Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland and New South Wales (this is the first poll under Baird in the latter). The first is an election-winning lead for Labor, while the latter two would represent swings of around 10% against first-term governments.

Of course a lot could change over the next year, but the ALP might have some reasons for joy soon.

[BaconBacon96]

The Coalition is completely stuffed in Victoria. In New South Wales and Queensland they should hold though, due to their very large majorities.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I'm starting to think Dennis Napthine, despite delivering a supposedly brilliant budget is completely ed. I mean in 2013, the Libs couldn't even manage 2PP win here in Victoria and recent polling has Labor at 61% to the Libs 39%. I really think Dennis will be our first one timer in ages, which is good.

All I'm hoping for is that Geoff Shaw loses his seat.

I'm sure he will lose his seat, look at how successful Thomson and Slipper were last federal election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Coalition is completely stuffed in Victoria. In New South Wales and Queensland they should hold though, due to their very large majorities.

The swings in NSW and QLD are going to be MASSIVE...