Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

S***'s about to go down in Victoria

[Knives]

You could not believe how excited I am, if Labor goes through with this and Napthine loses the election I will be insurmountably happy that, that ing maggot will be proven to be a terrible joke of a leader. I haven't hated a politician as much as I hate Napthine, he's just such a smug  - can't stand him.

[Talleyrand]

Could there be an early election in Victoria, or do the fixed terms prevent that?

[Knives]

Could there be an early election in Victoria, or do the fixed terms prevent that?

If parliament is dissolved, the election must occur roughly at longest 2 months after or at shortest about a month. But there can definitely be an early election.

[Platypus]

It would require the ALP to accept Shaw's vote though, and that's not worth it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It would require the ALP to accept Shaw's vote though, and that's not worth it.

Actually, it wouldn't - Andrews is moving for Shaw's expulsion... which would create a 43-43 deadlock. While the Speaker CAN vote, it makes governing next to impossible and deadlock along with no-confidence (which this scenario could trigger also) are the two mechanisms to permit an early election.

[Barnes]

The ALP has released a Campaign Review for last year's federal election.  The party attributes its lose to, rather obviously, party disunity and campaign mismanagement, but it makes for an interesting read, nonetheless.

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/australianlaborparty/pages/2378/attachments/original/1403229510/2013_Campaign_Review_FINAL.pdf?1403229510

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I submitted to that review process and I think there was a lot of agreement among all of them.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Um... apparently Al Gore is in Canberra and may be appearing with Clive Palmer at a press conference in about an hour, the mind truly boggles ...

[BaconBacon96]

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s4033228.htm

Have stranger things happened?

[Barnes]

I submitted to that review process and I think there was a lot of agreement among all of them.

It seems very well thought out and presented.  Labor has certainly made an impressive turn-around in management in the past year; now whether or not the polls accurately reflect their standing or just general dissatisfied with the government remains to be seen...

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s4033228.htm

Have stranger things happened?

Oh most certainly - usually when Paul Keating was battling it out in the House.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So pretty good news right? RET etc. has been saved from the ideologues. What's the chance of Palmer's emissions trading scheme passing? I'm guessing none.

Also LOL @ the Greens opposing fuel tax indexation. This Parliament is amusingly wacky.

[Barnes]

So pretty good news right? RET etc. has been saved from the ideologues. What's the chance of Palmer's emissions trading scheme passing? I'm guessing none.

Also LOL @ the Greens opposing fuel tax indexation. This Parliament is amusingly wacky.

Most certainly no chance. Most likely the Carbon Tax will be repealed in a few weeks followed by Direct Action also being rejected by the Senate, leaving Australia with no way at all to address climate change - a prospect that wouldn't be very troubling to the Coalition

As far as the fuel tax indexcation, the Greens are split on the issue with a large part of their caucus arguing that it's really a cruel method of addressing emissions by repressively targeting the worse off in society with little actual benefit with regards to reduction.

[Barnes]

Sorry if I missed this from somewhere else, but is there any indication of who the Coalition might offer up to serve as President of the Senate come July 7?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

An ETS won't get through the House, so... the ONLY way for it to happen is to have the Senate make the ETS transition a condition of ending the carbon price.

Mind you a scenario where the carbon price goes and the direct action is killed, saves the Government $2.5 billion over the forward estimates.

My personal view is that the ALP and Greens need to push Palmer into a corner "do you believe in this or not?" "will you stand by your statements about the importance of this issue or not?" - this is the opportunity to maintain the legislated ETS, linked to the EU which is due to come on stream on 1 July 2015.

[Barnes]

Antony Green has a great piece outlining the proposed reforms to the Senate electoral system:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/06/how-the-senates-new-electoral-system-might-work-lessons-from-nsw.html

If you haven't been following this issue before, now's a chance to aquatint yourself with it.

[YL]

Antony Green has a great piece outlining the proposed reforms to the Senate electoral system:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/06/how-the-senates-new-electoral-system-might-work-lessons-from-nsw.html

If you haven't been following this issue before, now's a chance to aquatint yourself with it.

So, no more inter-party deals on group voting tickets (good riddance, that really was the worst thing that anyone has ever thought of doing to STV) and no more compulsory full preferencing. 

There would still be an above the line option, but with preferences for parties determined by what the voter writes on the ballot: a voter could say put a 1 in the Green box and a 2 in the Labor box which would be interpreted as preferencing the Green candidates in the order chosen by the party and then the Labor candidates in the order chosen by the party.  I suspect a lot of voters would just put a 1 in their chosen party's box and not go beyond that, especially given that that's what they do in the existing system, so there would be a lot of non-transferable votes.

[Talleyrand]

Latest Newspoll, probably a fluke, has Labor ahead 51-49 in Queensland.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/06/29/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-in-queensland-2/

[Barnes]

This is likely an outlier, but Newman's lead in the polls is almost certainly gone. Regardless, the LNP's majority is so massive that they'll very likely retain government even if they lose the 2PP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think the ALP is ahead - but the LNP primary vote is being vacuumed up by Palmer, but as Hugh and I both stressed during the Federal Election, don't assume the PUP vote will flow strongly to the LNP.

Newman is probably doomed, he won his seat by a pretty narrow margin, if the state-wide swing is as big is it probably will be... he's gone and moving him to a safer seat now will probably cost them more seats.

[Barnes]

I don't think the ALP is ahead - but the LNP primary vote is being vacuumed up by Palmer, but as Hugh and I both stressed during the Federal Election, don't assume the PUP vote will flow strongly to the LNP.

Newman is probably doomed, he won his seat by a pretty narrow margin, if the state-wide swing is as big is it probably will be... he's gone and moving him to a safer seat now will probably cost them more seats.

Oh, that's right, he's in one of those Brisbane seats. Yeah, he'll definitely need to relocate.

[morgieb]

I don't think the ALP is ahead - but the LNP primary vote is being vacuumed up by Palmer, but as Hugh and I both stressed during the Federal Election, don't assume the PUP vote will flow strongly to the LNP.

Newman is probably doomed, he won his seat by a pretty narrow margin, if the state-wide swing is as big is it probably will be... he's gone and moving him to a safer seat now will probably cost them more seats.

And given it's OPV, most likely most of the PUP votes will exhaust.

Newman's gonna be interesting......he'll definitely try to move to a safer seat, but will he?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why has Katter's Party evaporated since the last Queensland election?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why has Katter's Party evaporated since the last Queensland election?

Katter was a total flash-in-the-pan... plus it massively under-performed. People are happy to support protest parties when they do well... not when they balls-up utterly. 

[Barnes]

Why has Katter's Party evaporated since the last Queensland election?

Katter was a total flash-in-the-pan... plus it massively under-performed. People are happy to support protest parties when they do well... not when they balls-up utterly. 

Yeah, Katter's always been a joke. How's that merger with Palmer going?