Australia General Discussion

[Mr. Morden]

Talk about going back to the future.

Random tangent: When did people start using the phrase "back to the future" to mean "back to the past"?  When the movie came out 30 years ago?  I've noticed its usage in that sense (usually by journalists writing headlines) more and more in recent years.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I personally think Fiona Simpson or Tim Nicholls would have been better choices for the new LNP leader - Springborg (and for that matter, Langbroek), have had their goes.

[Barnes]

Abbott has moved the spill forward to 9:00 am Monday.

[Phony Moderate]

Abbott has moved the spill forward to 9:00 am Monday.

Just prior to that announcement, Turnbull praised Abbott for not bringing it forward to Monday...

[BaconBacon96]

Turnbull has appeared outside his house and declared he supports the PM. Surely this means the spill motion will collapse tomorrow.

EDIT: He did leave open the possibility of running if the motion succeeds but surely this a blow to the spill's momentum.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Turnbull has appeared outside his house and declared he supports the PM. Surely this means the spill motion will collapse tomorrow.

EDIT: He did leave open the possibility of running if the motion succeeds but surely this a blow to the spill's momentum.

Apparently the decision to move the meeting has really angered back-benchers.

I wouldn't get too excited ... I think Abbott's numbers are slipping.

[Barnes]

Yeah, moving the time is just a further example of Abbott promising to listen and respect backbenchers more and then immediately sticking it to them.

[morgieb]

Still he probably will survive this spill. But I'll be amazed if he's still in power by the next election, unless he calls a double dissolution or something.

[Barnes]

I know we all love to speculate about double dissolutions, but does the government have a trigger at this point?

[Ebowed]

Moving the spill forward like this seems like a Campbell Newman style sort of move.  Poor form.  Or as Turnbull would call it, a 'captain's call.'

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Still he probably will survive this spill. But I'll be amazed if he's still in power by the next election, unless he calls a double dissolution or something.

Sinodinos, someone with considerable power in the 'establishment' wing of the party, has confirmed he will be supporting the spill. With Teresa Gambaro talking about 5 years of 'intimidation and hubris'... this is starting to slip.

Either Abbott just holds on tomorrow (I'm convinced there's no more than 15-20 votes in it right now) and this gets resolved in a month or 6 weeks, once the polling really collapses (they're already down 57-43) ... or the momentum opens up over the next 24 hours.

I know we all love to speculate about double dissolutions, but does the government have a trigger at this point?

As far as I'm aware, they don't.

[Barnes]

Still he probably will survive this spill. But I'll be amazed if he's still in power by the next election, unless he calls a double dissolution or something.

Sinodinos, someone with considerable power in the 'establishment' wing of the party, has confirmed he will be supporting the spill. With Teresa Gambaro talking about 5 years of 'intimidation and hubris'... this is starting to slip.

Either Abbott just holds on tomorrow (I'm convinced there's no more than 15-20 votes in it right now) and this gets resolved in a month or 6 weeks, once the polling really collapses (they're already down 57-43) ... or the momentum opens up over the next 24 hours.

I know we all love to speculate about double dissolutions, but does the government have a trigger at this point?

As far as I'm aware, they don't.

I think this was the last straw for most of the undecideds; we'll see shortly if that was enough.

I though as much with the DD trigger. The one that the government did have from the old Senate was nullified when they passed the bill in question post July 2014.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Still he probably will survive this spill. But I'll be amazed if he's still in power by the next election, unless he calls a double dissolution or something.

Sinodinos, someone with considerable power in the 'establishment' wing of the party, has confirmed he will be supporting the spill. With Teresa Gambaro talking about 5 years of 'intimidation and hubris'... this is starting to slip.

Either Abbott just holds on tomorrow (I'm convinced there's no more than 15-20 votes in it right now) and this gets resolved in a month or 6 weeks, once the polling really collapses (they're already down 57-43) ... or the momentum opens up over the next 24 hours.

I know we all love to speculate about double dissolutions, but does the government have a trigger at this point?

As far as I'm aware, they don't.

I think this was the last straw for most of the undecideds; we'll see shortly if that was enough.

I though as much with the DD trigger. The one that the government did have from the old Senate was nullified when they passed the bill in question post July 2014.

It wouldn't shock me, if the Government, regardless of who the PM is, didn't try to get a trigger very soon.

Samantha Maiden is suggesting that she's heard that Sindinos is actually the mastermind behind it all. If so, Abbott should be very, very worried.

[BaconBacon96]

Sinodinos is definitely the kind of politician who would orchestrate this kind of thing. I find it hard to believe this is purely a backbench revolt.

The smart thing for Turnbull to do if becomes PM would be to call an election within a short time of taking office, to catch Labor off guard and to get a new mandate for what will undoubtedly be a rather different Cabinet with somewhat different policies. It wouldn't even need to be a double dissolution it would just need to be soon, before his honeymoon period ends.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Senator Sean Edwards from SA has announced that Abbott called him to tell him that there will be an open tender process that would enable a local business to build the Navy's next-gen fleet, and backtracking on the original decision to have them built by a Japanese firm.

Edwards had said that unless such an assurance was given, he would support the spill.

This doesn't strike me as a move by a confident leader.

EDIT: Edwards now says he will not support the spill...


I get the feeling that there is a lot going on underneath the surface. I think the result or results tomorrow will be surprising.

[BaconBacon96]

Indeed Abbott looking worried.

I was thinking about another issue that hasn't really been addressed. If Turnbull becomes leader and PM by a few votes that isn't exactly a resounding endorsement for him either. Can we trust a government led by him to be stable, even if the polls support him? I'm not sure if we can.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's one of the few situations in Aust politics that I don't feel comfortable giving a prediction.

I mean, I don't think the numbers are there for the spill to be successful... but I do think the result will be close enough for Abbott to consider his position. Equally, I wouldn't be surprised for the Lib MPs (known for cowardice in these moments) to recoil and give Abbott a comfortable margin, nor would I be surprised if spill motion gets up...

Ugh.

EDIT: Newspoll will be out in the next few hours - plus Sky News will have some kind of preview at 8pm EDT (about 5 mins).

[BaconBacon96]

Anthony Albanese talking about a motion of no confidence if Turnbull becomes PM tomorrow...that's just silly Anthony.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll

Primaries
LNP: 35%
ALP: 41%
GRN: 12%

TPP
LNP: 43%
ALP: 57%

Better PM
Abbott: 30%
Shorten: 48%

Satisfaction
Abbott: Satisfied 24%
Shorten: Satisfied 42%

Dissatisfaction
Abbott: Dissatisfied 68%
Shorten: Dissatisfied 40%

So... Abbott is at -44 (Gillard had a -45 in Sept 2011) and Shorten at +2%

Best to Lead Liberals:
Abbott 25% Turnbull 64%
Abbott: 27% Bishop 59%
Turnbull 49% Bishop 38%

[morgieb]

Will the party realise Abbott's a failure tomorrow, or will they keep their heads in the sand?

I think the latter is more likely. These sorts of things require two bites of the cherry generally.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Keep in mind, Gillard's worst Newspoll was 42-58%.

How much worse do they want things to get?

[Talleyrand]

That satisfaction rating matches Gillard's record low of 23-68 in September 2011. Yeah...

[BaconBacon96]

Momentum for the spill motion seems to have grown extraordinarily over the past day. I'd be very surprised if it gets under 40 votes.  The chances of Abbott being dumped now have grown greatly. Either way, Abbott's position will be pretty much near untenable.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hmmm... I'm going to make a probably foolish prediction.

Spill fails - 55-46... but it could be +/- 10 either way.

[Barnes]

ABC News 24 bro-block as been lifted, if anyone wants to watch.

I think Abbott will scrape by, but his days are numbered. I wouldn't be surprised if Abbott is dumped in a few weeks.