Australia General Discussion

[morgieb]

I'm leaning towards a 60-41 result in Abbott's favour, though in reality I have no idea.

[Talleyrand]

I'd guess it'll be 72-29 in Abbott's favor. Unsettling, but he'll be alright.

[Barnes]

Counting has begun on the spill motion...

[Talleyrand]

Defeated 61-39 apparently.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Defeated 61-39 apparently.

Confirmed - 61-39

[Barnes]

With one informal and one absence.

[morgieb]

Regardless of him winning, there's 40% of the party room that thinks Abbott should resign. If Turnbull or Bishop steps up, he'll likely lose the vote.

[Phony Moderate]

Yeah, it was said that Thatcher was doomed after 20% failed to support her in late 1989.

[Knives]

Embarrassing for the Liberals, that's all this is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If, as expected, the Cabinet and party exec stuck to Abbott - then the 39 votes against him constitutes a vote of no confidence in the PM from 58% of the back-bench.

[morgieb]

Apparently Tony Abbott isn't doing a press conference any more but instead has gotten a couple of cameras from Channel 9 into his office. Interesting.

[BaconBacon96]

A little bit better for Abbott than I thought it would be in terms of votes. This is only going to prolong the drama though. This is far from over.

[morgieb]

Now Abbott's dropped the GP co-payment policy. Running scared.

[Platypus]

As expected, although if we assume cbinet solidarity (and we shouldn't, at least not unanimously) then the backbench has a majority against him. He's toast, it's just a case of whether it's burnt toast for the Libs or if they can scrape it off a bit.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As expected, although if we assume cbinet solidarity (and we shouldn't, at least not unanimously) then the backbench has a majority against him. He's toast, it's just a case of whether it's burnt toast for the Libs or if they can scrape it off a bit.

That's the thing, this was the same margin as the first Hawke-Keating challenge (22 votes) ... without someone actually campaigning and publicly presenting as a alternative. Plus Hawke had won four elections and been in office 8 years. Abbott has been in office less than 18 months.

But all it would take is for 13 votes to switch... 13

[windjammer]

Why Abbott has become so unpopular?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why Abbott has become so unpopular?

He was never popular.

[You kip if you want to...]

Why Abbott has become so unpopular?

He was never popular to begin with.

[Barnes]

Why Abbott has become so unpopular?

He was never popular.

That's essential to understanding this whole issue.

From a while ago, but still relevant:

Can Shorten really become the PM in 2 years? I know Australia is really unprone to government changes and than Labor was heavilly defeated, but Abbott is really unpopular and gaffe-prone.

Abbott has never really been popular, it's just that Labor eventually became more unpopular than him for a long enough window for him to win the election.  That said, the Coalition has quite a healthy majority, but Australian changes of government are known to be achieved by very sizable swings (discounting Whitlam in '72). 

As we all know, it's really not possible to predict any outcome two years before an election, but I certainly think that Labor has established a real lead and if an election were held today they would come within a fair shot of winning, if not indeed achieving a majority.

[BaconBacon96]

The question now is how long does Abbott last now? Six weeks? Three months? Six months? This can't continue indefinitely.

[morgieb]

The question now is how long does Abbott last now? Six weeks? Three months? Six months? This can't continue indefinitely.

He'll get turfed in between April and June IMO.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The protestations about "this is all over and we should give the PM space" are cute, but empty.

This was the first strike, test his position in the party room without a challenger, that was awful for the PM... I tend to agree that this has morally let a few front-benchers off the hook in relation to supporting a challenge.

Again, assuming a full party room of 102 - they need 52 to call a spill ... 39-52 = 13. You think there aren't 13 in the 41 front-benchers/exec office holders who are prepared to flip? It's a very brave stance if you don't.

I think there are a few options.

1. Just wait for another major blunder - but again, that could be months down the track and have hurt the Government's stocks even more.

2. Capitalise on these numbers, organise and call another spill motion for sometime this week, with a viable challenger.

3. Wait until after the Budget - have a number of front-bench resignations - request the spill sometime in June. The logistics of how the Budget is assembled is way too complex to allow for any kind of significant change during April. March is out due to the NSW election.

The reality is, that in order to not impact the NSW election in late March, if they want to do something before then, they need it sometime this month, before the campaign starts in earnest.

So, I would suggest the windows for actions are
Between now and early March - late May to late June - sometime in November.

[andrew_c]

The Liberals would try get rid of Abbott as soon as possible.  The longer this ordeal drags on, the more it would hurt the party.

[BaconBacon96]

The party is already back in chaos. You've got Luke Simpkins out saying the GP Co-Payment is gone, while the senior ministers are saying otherwise.

Either way it looks bad. Ridiculous.

[Talleyrand]

The LNP is desperately trying to hold onto power in Queensland, arguing that because there may eventually be a byelection in Ferny Grove, they should keep power as a caretaker government until then.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-springborg-speculates-on-ending-speculation-20150209-139xu8.html