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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #2350 on: September 13, 2015, 03:17:17 PM »
Quote from: BaconBacon96 on September 13, 2015, 03:04:44 PM
Recent Australian history has shown that incumbency is no longer enough for first-term governments to get reelected on. He would really have to be insane to go to an election with this kind of polling.

Does he even have a trigger for a double dissolution though?

The one that I am aware of is a bill to abolish the CEFC that was rejected before the new Senate was seated in 2014 - so there's actually a bit of discussion over whether that can really qualify.  I do believe there is another, but don't quote me on it.

Regardless, he can call a House election whenever he wants.

And the point about incumbency is most certainly a valid one - just take a look at Victoria or Queensland! 
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #2351 on: September 13, 2015, 03:31:08 PM »
A bill that would have increased oversight of trade union officials was rejected for a second time by the Senate in August, which gave another trigger to Abbott.

Here's a link.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2352 on: September 13, 2015, 04:42:50 PM »
There are two DD triggers.

The issue about mindset is important. It's incredibly clear that they bought their own spin. They seemed to believe that the economy would improve just because of their election and that that the carbon and mining taxes really were a break on the economy ... despite one actually working and the other so ineffective it didn't matter.

Abbott thinks he's the natural heir to Howard, hence his view that he can also come from behind and win like Howard did. Forgetting that Howard knew both how to take advantage of opportunities and how to maneuver to get Labor to make errors. Abbott is a crash-though type, not a political strategist.
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« Reply #2353 on: September 13, 2015, 04:44:38 PM »
Yes, I think the "incumbency effect" is horrendously overrated by the media. Perhaps it's because for quite some time in the nineties and noughties the federal government and most states were led by very talented politicians who could successfully bamboozle the their opponents. Abbott quite frankly is no Howard, bless.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2354 on: September 14, 2015, 12:52:04 AM »
It's happened.

Turnbull has resigned and requested a ballot.
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Barnes
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« Reply #2355 on: September 14, 2015, 12:53:36 AM »
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 14, 2015, 12:52:04 AM
It's happened.

Turnbull has resigned and requested a ballot.

There goes me going to sleep anytime soon! Grin
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Barnes
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« Reply #2356 on: September 14, 2015, 12:55:43 AM »
Julie Bishop also met with Abbott.  The pact materializes!
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2357 on: September 14, 2015, 12:55:57 AM »
It's happening!
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Barnes
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« Reply #2358 on: September 14, 2015, 12:58:20 AM »
Turnbull is about to hold a press conference.
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Knives
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« Reply #2359 on: September 14, 2015, 01:07:43 AM »
ah  em all.

what a pack of self serving c**nts, hopefully there will be an election soon.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2360 on: September 14, 2015, 01:11:35 AM »
And he's challenging. He's attacked Abbott leadership, his 'captain's calls' and interestingly, his Cabinet decision making.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2361 on: September 14, 2015, 01:12:30 AM »
Quote from: BaconBacon96 on September 14, 2015, 01:11:35 AM
And he's challenging. He's attacked Abbott leadership, his 'captain's calls' and interestingly, his Cabinet decision making.

It was a pretty aggressive set of comments.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #2362 on: September 14, 2015, 01:24:01 AM »
So when is the next time Australia will have a Prime Minister that serves an entire term with-out being toppled in an internal leadership election?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2363 on: September 14, 2015, 01:27:29 AM »
Quote from: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 14, 2015, 01:24:01 AM
So when is the next time Australia will have a Prime Minister that serves an entire term with-out being toppled in an internal leadership election?

Time is a strange beast Tongue
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2364 on: September 14, 2015, 02:02:23 AM »
Abbott has been strangely silent, a full hour after Turnbull's speech.
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Barnes
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« Reply #2365 on: September 14, 2015, 02:05:09 AM »
Quote from: BaconBacon96 on September 14, 2015, 02:02:23 AM
Abbott has been strangely silent, a full hour after Turnbull's speech.

Abbott is scheduled to speak shortly.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2366 on: September 14, 2015, 02:31:07 AM »
Thinking about Cabinet changes. I think it's safe to say Joe Hockey, Kevin Andrews, Mathias Cormann and Eric Abetz would resign. Peter Dutton maybe? Who is supporting who isn't clear on this one.
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Barnes
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« Reply #2367 on: September 14, 2015, 02:34:51 AM »
Lots of radio silence just at the moment, definitely.

I think Morrison has clearly come over.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2368 on: September 14, 2015, 03:03:05 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2015, 03:05:27 AM by BaconBacon96 »
Sky News said there are 23 undecideds. That's a lot.

Edit: Abbott to speak in approximately 10 minutes.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2369 on: September 14, 2015, 03:18:20 AM »
The ballot will be tonight.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #2370 on: September 14, 2015, 03:25:38 AM »
This looks pretty dire for Abbott.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2371 on: September 14, 2015, 03:36:01 AM »
Hockey going to bat for Abbott and calling out Turnbull.

No matter how you shape it, this is going to get bloody.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2372 on: September 14, 2015, 03:37:07 AM »
Hockey going after Turnbull.

Sky News are also saying that Peter Dutton is emerging as Abbott's new favoured Deputy Leader.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #2373 on: September 14, 2015, 03:37:23 AM »
Hockey is obviously taking Turnbull's statement very personally.  All gloves are coming off.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2374 on: September 14, 2015, 03:43:07 AM »
Apparently Warren Truss is gonna speak.

lolwat
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