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Author Topic: Australia General Discussion  (Read 73061 times)
Senator Polnut
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« Reply #25 on: November 29, 2007, 12:42:24 am »
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I'm really really surprised - I think it's a combination of anti-Turnbull and feeding Nelson to the wolves kinda thing.
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« Reply #26 on: November 29, 2007, 12:54:03 am »
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I think you're right, but I also think a large amount of Nelson's support is a pro-Howard thing-those who were locked-on Howard supporters seem to have gone significantly to Nelson.
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #27 on: November 29, 2007, 02:51:21 am »
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They will probably lose in 2010, and then Turnbull might get a chance for 2013.

I concur with the statements of Hugh. But when will Abbott or Turnbull challenge Nelson for the leadership? Six months? 2 years? Who knows.
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« Reply #28 on: November 29, 2007, 03:02:43 am »
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After 2010.
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« Reply #29 on: November 30, 2007, 05:05:38 am »
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Yesterday Kevin Rudd announced his Cabinet. I thought the Rudd Cabinet would have been a good one, considering he would be selecting it. I have been proven wrong.

He has kept Peter Garrett as Environment Minister, made Julia Gillard take on the responsibilities of being Education Minister as well as the important Industrial Relations portfolio and the worse mistake he made was selecting Stephen Smith to be the Foreign Minister. You think the new Opposition Leader and former Defence Minister was weak and ineffective wait until you see him in action. Brendon Nelson eat your heart out.
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Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #30 on: December 02, 2007, 04:15:54 am »
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Kevin Michael Rudd and his Cabinet will be officially sworn in as the new Government of Australia tomorrow, by the Governor-General Michael Jeffrey. It will be one day shy of the first anniversary of Kevin Rudd taking control of the Federal ALP, after he defeated Kim Beazley for the Leadership 49-39.
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« Reply #31 on: December 04, 2007, 04:00:38 am »
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Even though Kevin Rudd has only been Prime Minister of Australia for one day, he is thumping Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson in the polls. Nelson's opponent for the Liberal leadership, Malcolm Turnbull is also thumping Nelson too, with voters saying he's twice as popular than Nelson. Here's the results, from the Australian Poll conducted on the weekend.

Prefered Prime Minister:
Kevin Rudd (ALP)          61%
Brendan Nelson (LIB)   14%

Who should lead the Liberal Party?
Malcolm Turnbull        34%
Brendan Nelson         18%

Some interesting times lie ahead for the leadership of Brendan Nelson. 
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« Reply #32 on: December 17, 2007, 11:08:14 am »
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so, two weeks of the Rudd government. Opinions?
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« Reply #33 on: January 10, 2008, 02:46:08 pm »
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EL BUMPO
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« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2008, 10:00:01 am »
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Time to reserrect this thread:

Here's an article in The Australian on The Nationals.


Quote
Nats swamped by a demographic tide



George Megalogenis and Sarah Elks | March 11, 2008

IT may already be too late to save the Nationals. The 87-year-old party is in long-term decline as two separate population shifts undermine its traditional voter heartlands in the bush and in the Queensland and NSW sunbelts.

Labor is rising in its place on the coast as interstate migration swamps the locals who have been wedded to the Nationals for generations. And the Liberal Party and independents are encroaching inland as people move from rural communities to country towns where the Nationals are less favoured.

The population pincer means that the Nationals are in danger either way - whether they merge with the Liberals or remain as a separate entity.

Nationals leader Warren Truss would understand the problems facing his party better than most - his once-ultra-safe electorate of Wide Bay has seen its margin fall by more than half since 1996, from 18.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent at the last election.

The southeast Queensland seat has traditionally been dominated by conservative rural voters farming the land around Gympie and Maryborough.

But now the fastest-growing part of the electorate is in the south, where the Sunshine Coast's urban sprawl is expanding northward.

Cooroy small business owner Tex Pipke describes himself as a "dedicated conservative" who voted for the Liberal Party when he was in a Liberal electorate but backed Mr Truss last year, as there was no Liberal candidate.

Now a great supporter of Mr Truss, he believes the idea of a merger is well worth investigating. "Better now than one year before the election," said Mr Pipke, owner of Town and Country Home Rentals.

"It is worth exploring, but with a view to bring life back into the party in a way to resonate with voters and attract young voters, which obviously they didn't do at the last election."

The Nationals are the only party to go backwards in the lower house in each of the past four federal elections.

Half the 18 seats they held in 1996 have been lost over the period, while just one seat has been clawed back from the independents, leaving a total of 10 members last year.

The risk of merging with the Liberals is that Labor and independents might sweep up a further five seats at the next election, based on an analysis by The Australian. This would leave a lower house rump of five.

Former national leader John Anderson is heading a review of the party which sources suggest will make or break the push for a merger. Liberal party leader Brendan Nelson has risked his reputation on a merger.

But yesterday Dr Nelson said he would not commit himself until the Anderson report was released. "I am waiting, as is Warren Truss, for John Anderson's review to come forward," the Opposition Leader told ABC radio.

The Nationals are at their lowest ebb in the post-war era.

In their Country Party heyday in the 1960s, under the leadership of John "Black Jack" McEwen, they routinely claimed 20 or more seats in a much smaller federal parliament.

The high-water mark was 23seats out of 127 in 1975. As recently as 1984, the Nationals held 21 of the 184 seats in that parliament.

However, senior Nationals believe the demographic tide has been turning against them since the 1970s.

Tim Fischer was the last Nationals leader to take the party forward, winning two seats in 1993 and two more in 1996. But the party numbers have been falling ever since; from 18 to 16seats in 1998; to 13 in 2001; then 12 in 2004 and 10 last year.

Labor has won five sunbelt seats from the Nationals - Page and Richmond on the NSW north coast and the central Queensland trio of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia.

Another four inland seats have also fallen - two to the Liberals and two to independents.

The Nationals have offset these loses with the solitary gain of the NSW seat of Calare, which was formerly held by the late independent Peter Andren. In modern politics, death can come quickly. Just ask the Australian Democrats, who went from seven senators in 1996 to none last year.

The Nationals are vulnerable in as many as five seats.

Labor would be eyeing Queensland's Hinkler and NSW's Cowper, which have margins of less than 2 per cent, and the Victorian seats of Gippsland, where the sitting member Peter McGuaran is rumoured to be craving a life after politics.

Another two seats may be in danger to independents - former leader Mark Vaile's NSW seat of Lyne and Mr Truss's Wide Bay.

Wide Bay constituent John Cochrane, 53, is a longtime Nationals member who owns and operates one of Queensland's biggest dairy farms at Kandanga, south of Gympie. Mr Cochrane thinks a merger is a good idea but said he was worried that on some issues the voice of rural Australia would not be heard. "I would like to think that if we had a merger, it would be the responsibility of more people to look after the voice of rural industries," he said.

"But maybe I am concerned (some issues) won't be addressed. Still, I can't see any point in two conservative bodies opposing each other at the ballot box."

Reader of political science at the University of Queensland Paul Reynolds said the idea that rural voices would be lost if the Nationals merged with the Liberal Party was a furphy.

"There's no reason why rural conservative opinions can't be heard within the construct of a united party," he said. "It has happened in New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Canada."


1. How long till the Nationals lose their last seat? Or will they survive?

2. How long does Brendan Nelson have left as Liberal leader?
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« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2008, 10:03:59 am »
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Graphic with the article:

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« Reply #36 on: March 10, 2008, 10:13:54 am »
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Not surprising at all. The Nationals are doomed by political tides even if not demographic ones; whenever a Nationals MP retires, the Liberals often put up a candidate as well, and more often than not the Liberals take the seat. There's little loyalty to the Nationals as a party over the Liberals.
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Platypus
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« Reply #37 on: March 12, 2008, 09:05:41 am »
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The Nationals will survive in one form or another. Once the Liberals return to being a liberal-democratic conservative party (this is Australia...), then the Nationals will still find a large number of voters backing their agrarian populism. I can't see Mallee going Liberal under Howard, certainly not under Nelson and definately not under Turnbull.

Maybe a more defined right wing, but not a swallowing of the nationals by the Liberals.

As to Nelson's leadership, he'll stay for a while yet. I'd give him until at least next year, probably the next election.
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« Reply #38 on: March 12, 2008, 09:11:21 am »
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Worth pointing out that the demographic changes that cost them Dawson are rather different to the demographic changes that killed them in the touristy parts of Queensland and which are continuing to kill them in coastal NSW. Would also question the inclusion of Capricornia on the list; historically that's a Labor seat. The concern for the Nationals isn't that they can't hold seats gained in Coalition landslides, but that they can't even hold onto their old fiefdoms half the time.
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« Reply #39 on: March 12, 2008, 09:49:13 am »
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Worth pointing out that the demographic changes that cost them Dawson are rather different to the demographic changes that killed them in the touristy parts of Queensland and which are continuing to kill them in coastal NSW. Would also question the inclusion of Capricornia on the list; historically that's a Labor seat. The concern for the Nationals isn't that they can't hold seats gained in Coalition landslides, but that they can't even hold onto their NSW fiefdoms half the time.

More realistic, I think.
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« Reply #40 on: March 12, 2008, 10:15:01 am »
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Worth pointing out that the demographic changes that cost them Dawson are rather different to the demographic changes that killed them in the touristy parts of Queensland and which are continuing to kill them in coastal NSW. Would also question the inclusion of Capricornia on the list; historically that's a Labor seat. The concern for the Nationals isn't that they can't hold seats gained in Coalition landslides, but that they can't even hold onto their NSW fiefdoms half the time.

More realistic, I think.

But Hyperbole Is Fun And Murray* is in Victoria**

*lost over a decade ago though and nothing else has gone since, so yeah, the bleeding there seems to have stopped.
**"The Works Are Closed But The Ballot Box Is Open" (I think it was ballot box, may have been polling station or just polls. Can't remember), on Labour posters in 1929. This, everyone, is how deeply sad I am.
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« Reply #41 on: March 14, 2008, 04:53:42 am »
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There's almost certain to be by-elections some time in the next few months in Higgins, Mayo, Lyne and Gippsland. In 2007, they all were won by margins of 11-17 points in 2PP, but with Rudd's honeymoon being what it is, the Coalition could lose all four of them. If that happened the House composition would be Labor 87, Liberal 53, Nationals 8.
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« Reply #42 on: March 16, 2008, 11:29:36 am »
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I don't know much about Lyne, but of the other three:

Higgins:

Almost instantly dismissable. That said, there was the Ryan by-election, but that was against an unpopular government rather than in favour of a popular one. I'd say it's pretty safe for the Liberals.

Mayo:

Liberal. Possibly with a greatly reduced margin, but they should hold this. It's wheatbelt, german belt south australia; not happy hunting grounds for Labor pre-Rudd and not now either.

Gippsland:

The one to watch. The farmers will go overwhelmingly for the Nationals, especially those in the highlands, who still hate the ALP; but the major centers should go Labor, especially in the LaTrobe Valley. Expect ALP majorities in Traralgon and Morwell, with the Nats winning all the farms south of the valley. Bairnsdale and Sale should be interesting; Sale will probably go slightly towards the National (but it could be tight) and Bairnsdale (and the Lakes area in general) should lean quite a bit to the National although without a McGauran that might change towards the ALP. The result will hinge on the loggers and to some extent the far eastern towns on the coast, both of which would need to go to the Nationals with 55%+ to give them a win. Nationals ahead but could be won by the ALP if KRudd stays popular.
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #43 on: March 16, 2008, 11:36:20 am »
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Lyne is solid Nats country.

Higgins will be much closer than with Costello running in November, I think all should slightly favour the incumbent party - but Higgins is the one that has the best chance of changing hands. But there will be significantly reduced margins.

On Nelson, at present Rudd's honeymoon remains strong and Turnbull is not stupid. He's hoping that Nelson is weak enough by the end of the sitting year - but also that Rudd's gloss has worn off.

It's all about the timing.
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Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #44 on: March 17, 2008, 03:30:56 am »
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also that Rudd's gloss has worn off.

I wouldn't be surprised if Rudd's gloss begins to wear off when his Government releases their first budget when Parliament resumes. However I highly doubt it. Even if the Budget is perceived as a bad one by some, the ALP will still have a commanding lead in the polls over the lackluster Liberals. This is reminding me of 1994 all over again (even though I was only 1). Hehe.


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Mango
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« Reply #45 on: March 17, 2008, 08:58:35 am »
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New Newspoll (brackets compared with poll from fortnight ago)

if election were held today:

Labor: 47 (-4)
Coalition: 35 (+4)
Greens: 11 (+1)

2PP: Labor 59 (-4), Coalition 41 (+4)

Preferred PM:

Rudd: 70 (-3)
Nelson: 10 (+3)


7% of Labor voters said they'd be more likely to vote for a merged Liberal/National party, 4% of Liberal voters said they'd be less likely to vote for it.


Poll MoE: 3%

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23393201-2702,00.html



Honeymoon starting to wear off? I guess they could hardly keep those numbers up.

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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #46 on: March 17, 2008, 11:49:33 am »
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Yay for Nelson! Into double-digits.

This is still an amazing honeymoon.
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Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #47 on: March 17, 2008, 03:19:31 pm »
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Yay for Nelson! Into double-digits.

Did I just hear correctly? That's politically incorrect!

I wonder why the Coalition's support has gone up 4 points. Now it wouldn't just be about Rudd's plans to remove funds to carers and not leaving them in the lurch. I can't think of anything that the Libs have done right since the last poll.
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #48 on: March 17, 2008, 09:30:12 pm »
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Yay for Nelson! Into double-digits.

Did I just hear correctly? That's politically incorrect!

I wonder why the Coalition's support has gone up 4 points. Now it wouldn't just be about Rudd's plans to remove funds to carers and not leaving them in the lurch. I can't think of anything that the Libs have done right since the last poll.

or sarcasm... take it as you will

A 63-37 split is utterly anormal, chances are many were angry with Nelson that day - hence both the 7% and that monstrous deficit. The 59-41 is likely more close to reality.
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« Reply #49 on: March 18, 2008, 07:10:16 am »
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I never understand why they do polls so little time after the election of a majority government.
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