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Author Topic: Australia General Discussion  (Read 78535 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #225 on: February 14, 2012, 10:04:12 pm »
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Does Australian House of Representatives have a vote of no confidence rule? And if so, how likely would it occur on this situation.

All Westminster countries do. Right now they would need all the independents to break with Labor and vote against the government on a matter of confidence like the budget or a specialized non-confidence motion (NCM). For now, apart from Willkie (who's withdrawn his support for the government), the independents show no sign of moving.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
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« Reply #226 on: February 14, 2012, 10:09:54 pm »
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Does Australian House of Representatives have a vote of no confidence rule? And if so, how likely would it occur on this situation.

Assuming it's similar to the UK, the Leader of the Opposition (probably him anyway) would table a motion of no confidence, the House would then debate the motion - a speech from Gillard, a speech from Abbott. Then, should have the House vote that they've lost confidence, Julia would go and see the Governor-general to offer her government's resignation and either ask for a new election or tell the GG to ask Tony to form a government (without an election, a bit like what Lib-NDP-BQ were planning in Canada when Harper got another minority in 2008).

Or, if the budget wasn't passed, it'd count as a vote of no confidence.
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morgieb
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« Reply #227 on: February 14, 2012, 10:10:52 pm »
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This shows how bad Labor is in the sh**t. Basically economic growth has been way higher than most/all 1st world countries. Our taxes are lower than any 1st world countries bar the basket case we call the USA....we have the 2nd highest living standards in the world.....yet Labor are still behind up 8-10 points. Jesus wept.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #228 on: February 14, 2012, 10:14:08 pm »
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Re economy: You could say the same about Major's Tories in '97.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #229 on: February 14, 2012, 10:32:07 pm »
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Re economy: You could say the same about Major's Tories in '97.

The Tories presided over two recessions and services had been ravaged and neglected. That's the stuff the electorate notices, but let's stay on topic.

Julia's embarrassing, but hardly John Major embarrassing.
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« Reply #230 on: February 14, 2012, 11:06:14 pm »
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What does Laborious do now? Does Gillard run out the clock until the next federal election, or will she be eased out by fellow ALP MP's?
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« Reply #231 on: February 14, 2012, 11:31:52 pm »
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the independents show no sign of moving.

Oakeshott has re-iterated his warning that his deal was with the Prime Minister, not the Labor Government.

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UPDATE: INDEPENDENT MP Rob Oakeshott has repeated his warning that all bets are off if the federal Labor party changes leader.

Mr Oakeshott said he was too busy to be overly concerned about growing Labor leadership speculation.
 
"I'm in about 10 dogfights at the moment and that's not one of them, that's for the Labor party," he told ABC Radio.
 
He had a meeting with Prime Minister Julia Gillard yesterday but they did not discuss her leadership woes.
 
Mr Oakeshott's deal to support the Gillard minority government is with the Prime Minister personally and her predecessor Kevin Rudd has not specifically sounded him out for support.
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #232 on: February 15, 2012, 12:39:06 am »
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What does Laborious do now? Does Gillard run out the clock until the next federal election, or will she be eased out by fellow ALP MP's?

That's the question... there are 3 questions the ALP needs to answer

1. Is this recoverable? regardless of who is leading...

2. Is our hatred of Rudd able to be put aside to manage our disappointment in Gillard?

3. Is there a credible alternative to either Rudd or Gillard?

I think the answers are probably...

1. It is, but this needs to be addressed quickly, or it will become terminal... it's very close

2. I would say Gillard has at least half of the caucus now, Rudd has probably 20% and 30% don't want Gillard, but equally don't want Rudd.

3. There are plausible options... but many of them are not palatable...

My feeling is that a challenge will come, it's in the ALP's interest to not have this instability carry-on into the post-Budget period (mid-May onwards).
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« Reply #233 on: February 15, 2012, 02:34:24 am »
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Bringing back Rudd isn't seriously being considered, is it?
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« Reply #234 on: February 15, 2012, 06:39:55 am »
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What does Laborious do now? Does Gillard run out the clock until the next federal election, or will she be eased out by fellow ALP MP's?
Not sure. What I think will happen....

1. Rudd challenges Gillard.
2. Gillard manages to swat him by because he's hated by the Labor Caucus, but she is weakened in the process.
3. Gillard still doesn't get a surge in the polls.
4. Labor eventually realises that Gillard can't win the next election.
5. They move towards a compromise candidate, probably Swan or Smith.
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morgieb
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« Reply #235 on: February 15, 2012, 06:41:15 am »
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Re economy: You could say the same about Major's Tories in '97.
The Tories had also been in power for 18 years, whereas Labor's only been in power for 4.

Besides, we've never had any "Black Tuesday" moments.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2012, 06:49:49 am by morgieb »Logged
Senator Polnut
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« Reply #236 on: February 15, 2012, 07:02:54 am »
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What does Laborious do now? Does Gillard run out the clock until the next federal election, or will she be eased out by fellow ALP MP's?
Not sure. What I think will happen....

1. Rudd challenges Gillard.
2. Gillard manages to swat him by because he's hated by the Labor Caucus, but she is weakened in the process.
3. Gillard still doesn't get a surge in the polls.
4. Labor eventually realises that Gillard can't win the next election.
5. They move towards a compromise candidate, probably Swan or Smith.

This destabilisation cannot continue, a spill needs to happen by May... or they risk a NSW-like wipeout.
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« Reply #237 on: February 15, 2012, 10:00:08 am »
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Crean, ploise. Now.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #238 on: February 15, 2012, 12:49:01 pm »
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Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?
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« Reply #239 on: February 15, 2012, 01:03:59 pm »
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Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

How does the rank and file feel about Rudd?
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Sibboleth
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« Reply #240 on: February 15, 2012, 01:08:28 pm »
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Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

How does the rank and file feel about Rudd?

I've no idea and that's really not the point.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #241 on: February 15, 2012, 03:59:32 pm »
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Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

How does the rank and file feel about Rudd?

I've no idea and that's really not the point.

Personally, i've always found the Australian way of selecting party leaders to be very strange.
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morgieb
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« Reply #242 on: February 15, 2012, 04:50:10 pm »
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Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

How does the rank and file feel about Rudd?
Talking about the Caucus or everyday Labor members?
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morgieb
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« Reply #243 on: February 15, 2012, 04:51:29 pm »
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Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

How does the rank and file feel about Rudd?

I've no idea and that's really not the point.

Personally, i've always found the Australian way of selecting party leaders to be very strange.

Pretty sure Labor are considering reforming it.
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #244 on: February 15, 2012, 05:33:44 pm »
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Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

How does the rank and file feel about Rudd?

I've no idea and that's really not the point.

Personally, i've always found the Australian way of selecting party leaders to be very strange.

Pretty sure Labor are considering reforming it.

They're talking about primaries... which to be fair doesn't exactly fill me with glee.

Rudd's popularity grows the further from Canberra you get. Those of us here 'in the bubble' know what he's really like, hence why the idea of a Rudd return terrifies both the ALP leadership and the Public Service in equal measure.
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MasterSanders
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« Reply #245 on: February 15, 2012, 05:35:47 pm »
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What is Rudd's great sin?
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« Reply #246 on: February 15, 2012, 05:47:32 pm »
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Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

I suspect the people who run the Labor Party wouldn't like that.
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« Reply #247 on: February 15, 2012, 05:52:04 pm »
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What is Rudd's great sin?

He's non-collaborative (ie Ministers often only know of a decision in their portfolio once it's announced) - this is especially bad in the ALP, where the caucus is meant to a filtering process. The other ALP-specific sin is that he's not aligned with one of the factions - which means no one trusts him. But for the public at-large (and those of us in Canberra) - he's very ill-mannered, in private every 3rd word is f*** (or some variation), and his government was marked by a lot of activity, policy made up on the fly and no real pay off.  
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« Reply #248 on: February 15, 2012, 06:00:40 pm »
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What is Rudd's great sin?

He's non-collaborative (ie Ministers often only know of a decision in their portfolio once it's announced) - this is especially bad in the ALP, where the caucus is meant to a filtering process. The other ALP-specific sin is that he's not aligned with one of the factions - which means no one trusts him. But for the public at-large (and those of us in Canberra) - he's very ill-mannered, in private every 3rd word is f*** (or some variation), and his government was marked by a lot of activity, policy made up on the fly and no real pay off.  

Didn't he screw over Peter Garrett by making him take the fall for something he ordered Garrett's ministry to do over Garrett's head or something? Some kind of harebrained insulation scheme that ended up killing people?
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #249 on: February 15, 2012, 06:06:56 pm »
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What is Rudd's great sin?

He's non-collaborative (ie Ministers often only know of a decision in their portfolio once it's announced) - this is especially bad in the ALP, where the caucus is meant to a filtering process. The other ALP-specific sin is that he's not aligned with one of the factions - which means no one trusts him. But for the public at-large (and those of us in Canberra) - he's very ill-mannered, in private every 3rd word is f*** (or some variation), and his government was marked by a lot of activity, policy made up on the fly and no real pay off.  

Didn't he screw over Peter Garrett by making him take the fall for something he ordered Garrett's ministry to do over Garrett's head or something? Some kind of harebrained insulation scheme that ended up killing people?

Yes, the Insulation Scheme was the dark-side of the generally effective 2009 stimulus package. This is probably the worst example of Rudd saying "oh, I've issued a press release saying your department will do x, make sure it works".

When I was in the public service Garrett was my Minister and he was otherwise a very capable and effective Minister. But Rudd handed him a poison chalice. When unskilled workers were trying to make money out of the billions going out, people died.

So Garrett had the energy-efficiency portfolio taken away and given to Penny Wong.
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