Australia General Discussion

[asexual trans victimologist]

How's Garrett doing at Education, out of curiosity? I remember being distinctly upset on his behalf because of how unfair it seemed and because of how I knew of his music career from when my mother used to play his cassette tapes in the car when I was little.

[Secretary Polnut]

How's Garrett doing at Education, out of curiosity? I remember being distinctly upset on his behalf because of how unfair it seemed and because of how I knew of his music career from when my mother used to play his cassette tapes in the car when I was little.

The problem is no one really took him seriously. But people forget he's got a law degree, he's very bright and a hard worker. I wrote a speech for him back in May 2010... and he barely changed a word.

He's not doing a bad job, and considering this government he's not being talked about which probably means he's doing fine.

[You kip if you want to...]

What is Rudd's great sin?

He's non-collaborative (ie Ministers often only know of a decision in their portfolio once it's announced) - this is especially bad in the ALP, where the caucus is meant to a filtering process. The other ALP-specific sin is that he's not aligned with one of the factions - which means no one trusts him. But for the public at-large (and those of us in Canberra) - he's very ill-mannered, in private every 3rd word is f*** (or some variation), and his government was marked by a lot of activity, policy made up on the fly and no real pay off.  

I though KRudd was meant to be insanely popular for like two years after his election. What happened?

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

What is Rudd's great sin?

He's non-collaborative (ie Ministers often only know of a decision in their portfolio once it's announced) - this is especially bad in the ALP, where the caucus is meant to a filtering process. The other ALP-specific sin is that he's not aligned with one of the factions - which means no one trusts him. But for the public at-large (and those of us in Canberra) - he's very ill-mannered, in private every 3rd word is f*** (or some variation), and his government was marked by a lot of activity, policy made up on the fly and no real pay off.  

I though KRudd was meant to be insanely popular for like two years after his election. What happened?

Well he's still quite popular with general electorate. The ALP Caucus always could not stand him - the only reason he lasted so long was because his polling was awesome.

[redcommander]

So is an ALP loss pretty much a done deal now?

[Secretary Polnut]

So is an ALP loss pretty much a done deal now?

If things stay like this... yes. But there's plenty that could change.

[RogueBeaver]

Right now their numbers are either level with or slightly lower than what they were in 1996. So yes, they've flatlined. In French we call it an ecrasement.

[Secretary Polnut]

Right now their numbers are either level with or slightly lower than what they were in 1996. So yes, they've flatlined. In French we call it an ecrasement.

Since there's still 18months before the next likely election... a lot can happen.

If the alternative wasn't Tony Abbott... I'd be all for turfing this Government out... not for what it's done (because I think that's been OK), but because on so many other things it's directionless and gutless.

[Vote UKIP!]

Is the next election in 2013?

If that's the case, maybe Gillard, or at least ALP, can ride this storm.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Is the next election in 2013?

If that's the case, maybe Gillard, or at least ALP, can ride this storm.

Yes, but there may be an election before that.

[Smid]

Yeah, we have a maximum end date but no fixed terms.

(At a federal level - some states and councils have fixed terms).

[Secretary Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/war-looms-as-pms-loyalists-turn-on-rudd-20120217-1teic.html

Cabinet Ministers are now circling around Gillard to try to protect her...

[RogueBeaver]

Everyone's waiting for Queensland aren't they? So the Coalition should throw everything they have into winning state government.

Will the next steps start only if Lab looses Queensland or could it also start if they lose in all but name? Say, a minority or sharply reduced majority.

[Vote UKIP!]

Is the next election in 2013?

If that's the case, maybe Gillard, or at least ALP, can ride this storm.

Yes, but there may be an election before that.

How would there be an election before that? Would independents have to break away from the Gillard government?

Otherwise, I would think Labor would take all possible precautions to avoid an election before the next scheduled one.

[RogueBeaver]

All the independents would have to break away. They will ride it out to the statutory limit, as all flatlined governments do.

I just checked Wiki: LNP leads 58-42 in Queensland. If those numbers hold Lab loses Queensland for the first time in a generation. Second backroomer condition is the federal budget... what are they looking for in there?

[Secretary Polnut]

Is the next election in 2013?

If that's the case, maybe Gillard, or at least ALP, can ride this storm.

Yes, but there may be an election before that.

How would there be an election before that? Would independents have to break away from the Gillard government?

Otherwise, I would think Labor would take all possible precautions to avoid an election before the next scheduled one.

The Independents have stressed that their agreements are not with the Government but with Gillard herself.

One of the biggest disincentives against a successful challenge would be that all of those agreements would need to be re-negotiated and the risk of front-bench resignations ie... an immediate election that could end in an ALP blood-bath.

HOWEVER... there are some key problems.

* Oakeshott and Wilkie are almost guaranteed to lose their seats... it's rumoured that Windsor will retire... so it's not in their interest for an election to be called.

* There's a reason why Abbott has stopped lobbying the Independents and wanting an election... he knows he can't do anything without an majority in his own right, and he would want a friendlier Senate.

So I wonder, if push came to shove... how much of a risk there is of the Independents not siding with Rudd.

Labor is likely to lose the QLD election, probably by a substantial number... which will be a catalyst for change, although there is nothing new, QLD Labor is just reverting to the position they were in before the floods a year ago.

[Smid]

Rudd probably wouldn't lose Windsor, as you note, and there's a good chance he'd pick up Katter. That said, if Rudd brought on a leadership ballot, a third challenger could emerge.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

wrt to an early election, if the Craig Thomson scandal blows up any further, he might have to resign, and I'd favour the Liberals to pick up his seat in a by-election.

[Secretary Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-row-gets-dirty-20120218-1tg9j.html

Wonder how this got out....

[Vasall des Midas]

Everyone's waiting for Queensland aren't they? So the Coalition should throw everything they have into winning state government.

Not if they think Gillard limping on is even better than a coup. In that case, they should try to lose in Queensland.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-row-gets-dirty-20120218-1tg9j.html

Wonder how this got out....

Definately his Gordon Brown "bigoted woman" moment.

[Secretary Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-row-gets-dirty-20120218-1tg9j.html

Wonder how this got out....

Definately his Gordon Brown "bigoted woman" moment.

This is much closer to the real Rudd

[RogueBeaver]

OK, so he drops a few F-bombs. What national leader doesn't in private? If he'd made a racist remark about the Chinese maybe this would be a BFD. He didn't, so what's the big deal here?

[Secretary Polnut]

OK, so he drops a few F-bombs. What national leader doesn't in private? If he'd made a racist remark about the Chinese maybe this would be a BFD. He didn't, so what's the big deal here?

It basically supports that he's ill-mannered and doesn't know how to behave appropriately.

I don't care that he swears in private, I know I do, but there's a reason this got leaked... and it's as much about the ALP caucus than the public... "just remember... this is when he's frustrated... remember what he's like when he's genuinely angry?"

[Sibboleth]

And this, comrades, is why I will never become a politician.