Australia General Discussion

[Platypus]

anyone know where I can find a breakdown of the support for Rudd or Gillard?

[You kip if you want to...]

anyone know where I can find a breakdown of the support for Rudd or Gillard?

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/02/23/gillard-vs-rudd-the-re-match/

[Smid]

Which is the problem... the public like him... but don't know him - his colleagues know him, and hate him.

The closer people get to him, the less they like him. I handed out HTV cards at the Woodridge by-election opposite him when he was a first term backbencher and found him to be an odious t***. Don't know if the word to fill the blank is allowable or not.

Pretty sure that 'twat' is fine here.

I'd been thinking "turd" but "twat" works just fine.

When I spent a few hours across a footpath from him, I found him an odious turd and an obnoxious twat.

[RogueBeaver]

Will Rudd challenge again once he loses?

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mE9FDKxMXTw

Jules officially calls for a ballot.

Just wondering what my own Labour Party'd be like if we had the Australian system of electing a leader. We'd be a massive mess.

[RogueBeaver]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mE9FDKxMXTw

Jules officially calls for a ballot.

Just wondering what my own Labour Party'd be like if we had the Australian system of electing a leader. We'd be a massive mess.

Someone else would have won your last contest.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mE9FDKxMXTw

Jules officially calls for a ballot.

Just wondering what my own Labour Party'd be like if we had the Australian system of electing a leader. We'd be a massive mess.

Someone else would have won your last contest.

Yup. Even if Ed still won, it would've lasted all of five minutes. Gordon Brown would've became PM in like 2003-04, as agreed.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Which is the problem... the public like him... but don't know him - his colleagues know him, and hate him.

The closer people get to him, the less they like him. I handed out HTV cards at the Woodridge by-election opposite him when he was a first term backbencher and found him to be an odious t***. Don't know if the word to fill the blank is allowable or not.

Pretty sure that 'twat' is fine here.

Only American profanity is censored.

[Vote UKIP!]

What would happen to he government if Rudd defeats Gillard? Since the independents have a special agreement with Gillard, and not the ALP, would that force an election?

[RogueBeaver]

What would happen to he government if Rudd defeats Gillard? Since the independents have a special agreement with Gillard, and not the ALP, would that force an election?

No, because they have other reasons not to force dissolution. Such as losing their seats. More generally, there would be a Cabinet shuffle if Rudd won- but regardless of who wins it doesn't change the flatlined trajectory.

[Secretary Polnut]

What would happen to he government if Rudd defeats Gillard? Since the independents have a special agreement with Gillard, and not the ALP, would that force an election?

No, because they have other reasons not to force dissolution. Such as losing their seats. More generally, there would be a Cabinet shuffle if Rudd won- but regardless of who wins it doesn't change the flatlined trajectory.

I only partially agree... I think Rudd will push the primary vote up and there are opportunities for circuit-breakers.

[Joe Republic]

Are there 'wings' of the party that Rudd and Gillard represent in this feud?  Or is it purely a clash of personalities?

[Senator Barnes]

Are there 'wings' of the party that Rudd and Gillard represent in this feud?  Or is it purely a clash of personalities?

I've always thought of Gillard being on the Labor right, which doesn't translate to her being "right-wing" of course.

[Secretary Polnut]

Gillard is a member of the Victorian ALP left. Part of Rudd's problem was that he's not a member of a faction, so it means he has no natural base of support.

[Senator Barnes]

Gillard is a member of the Victorian ALP left. Part of Rudd's problem was that he's not a member of a faction, so it means he has no natural base of support.

I actually didn't know that about Gillard, thanks Polnut. 

So, what do you make then of this stuff? This is basically where I was getting my right-wing idea from.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

I'm under the impression that the factional wings of the party matter rather less than they used to. Is there any basis to that?

[Senator Barnes]

I'm under the impression that the factional wings of the party matter rather less than they used to. Is there any basis to that?

I would agree to that (as far as a Georgian's knowledge goes ).  I just read somewhere that the divisions in the ALP are more "more organisational than ideological."

I wonder if there's any merit to that?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I suggested that Kevin Rudd was a prick on reddit and was met with angry responses from Australians (one called me a c_nt). I don't understand how this guy is inspiring. He comes off as an accountant or a low-level bureaucratic official.

[Smid]

I'm under the impression that the factional wings of the party matter rather less than they used to. Is there any basis to that?

Bruce Hawker was asked about this just this morning (if my memory serves me correct). The question was in the context of Rudd mounting a second challenge if unsuccessful in a first challenge and how there could be a big change in the result from first challenge to second challenge if a factional heavy changed sides and brought, for example, 15 MPs with him, and he was saying that factional heavyweights no longer carry that sort of influence. They might bring some MPs with them, but they wouldn't bring every MP who supposedly answers to them. He was saying many backbenchers are more independent/individual than used to be the case, even from a decade or two ago.

[Secretary Polnut]

As I said previously, the factional divides used to be far more stark - there are some basic differences (for example, Gillard is the only member of the left faction opposed (publicly) to gay marriage. The right have a stronger alligience to the Union movement (but there are left-faction members from a union background).

But in day-to-day practice it's largely an tool of organisation.

I suggested that Kevin Rudd was a prick on reddit and was met with angry responses from Australians (one called me a c_nt). I don't understand how this guy is inspiring. He comes off as an accountant or a low-level bureaucratic official.

Rudd was an effective campaigner in 2007. The thing is the further away from Rudd you are, the better your view is. Those of us in 'the bubble' knew years ago how unpleasant he could be and that was the real reason he was removed.

Because the coup leaders didn't explain that properly, there are still people who don't understand why he was removed... and believe he was hardly done by.

[Leftbehind]

I suppose the fact that everyone seems pretty unanimous on Rudd being a cunt settles it, but having read the article Barnes quoted above, it's difficult to feel too sorry for Gillard either, given it paints her ousting of him as hardly one of a team player, and her supposed policy differentiation groundless (was it?).

(Yes I realise this isn't the Gillard vs Rudd thread, but it's the Australian discussion thread, and my views for answering that question lay in this thread)

[Secretary Polnut]

I think that represents something about the nature of the ALP.

Much like UK Labour and the US Democrats, it's often hard to find what many in Europe and people who consider themselves left-wing, actual left-wing policies. Even those like Gillard who are of the left when they come into power, believe they need to shift to the right faction to be taken seriously by the public.

As I said previously, the connection of pro-union = left.... is not the universal case in the ALP.

[RogueBeaver]

This isn't ideology (even Chretien/Martin had some ideological contrast, speaking as a Canuck) but pure personality. Dunno if Hawke-Keating was similar.

[Secretary Polnut]

This isn't ideology (even Chretien/Martin had some ideological contrast, speaking as a Canuck) but pure personality. Dunno if Hawke-Keating was similar.

Hawke/Keating was certainly a positive working relationship early on... but when Hawke decided to contest the 1990 election (which the ALP *just* won), Keating used that as a weapon against Hawke and also the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirribilli_Agreement_of_1988... then it became about pure bitterness and personality.

[Secretary Polnut]

Last Newspoll before the leadership ballot.

Preferred Prime Minister
Gillard: 36% - down 1%
Abbott: 38% - down 2%

Approval rating
Gillard: 26% - down 6%
Abbott: 31% - down 5%

... so the basic message is that the Australian people don't like either option... however...

Primary vote

ALP: 35% - up 3%
Coalition: 45% - down 1%

Two-party preferred

ALP: 47% - up 2%
Coalition: 53% - down 2%