Australia General Discussion

[Senator Barnes]

Seems to me that Australians prefer whomever isn't in power at the moment.  Is that actually the case over there, guys?

[Smid]

I believe the Newspoll also had Rudd as preferred PM over Abbott by about 53-34. Going from memory here off the tv news five minutes back, so I could be wrong.

[Vote UKIP!]

Were Rudd to return to power, I don't know how that would help the ALP's chances in the next election

[RogueBeaver]

Were Rudd to return to power, I don't know how that would help the ALP's chances in the next election

I'll repost what I posted in the Gillard thread.

Sounds awfully like the Hillary 2012ers. Once you put their idols back in the domestic arena everyone shortly remembers why said idols were exiled from it to begin with.

[Secretary Polnut]

Were Rudd to return to power, I don't know how that would help the ALP's chances in the next election

As I wrote on my facebook in response to a question.

The ALP are in this position due to one reason, and one reason alone.

They underestimated Tony Abbott.

That led to:
a) Rudd not going for a double-dissolution in February 2010 (despite having 2 triggers), before Abbott was able to gain traction;

b) By scrapping the CPRS, under pressure from both internal and external forces, it removed the moral centre of the Government and showed that Rudd had no faith in his policy... a gift to Abbott;

c) Because they didn't address Abbott's lies and misdirection and did not provide a strong contrast to him, the Government ceded the battle ground to the coalition. Instead of standing up for Labor values they allowed Abbott to dictate the terms, and the Greens to suck up their primary vote.

Assuming the Prime Minister wins the ballot, as everyone is expecting, it's time to roll up the sleeves and bury Tony Abbott, and show him as the negative demagogue he is. 

[RogueBeaver]

The only thing the ALP will bury (I would argue, has buried) is themselves.

[Secretary Polnut]

The only thing the ALP will bury (I would argue, has buried) is themselves.

The thing to consider, in history, even recent history, Governments have come back from worse positions than this.

These declarations about the end of the ALP are vastly overstated.

But how they react over the next 3-4 months will determine their future.

The coalition has several key weaknesses, the key being Tony Abbott himself.

[You kip if you want to...]

As someone who doesn't know much about Aus political history, why is today's ALP situation any different to Keating in 1993 or Howard in 2004's situation? Being unpopular and down in the polls, but winning in the end.

[RogueBeaver]

Neither of them had open civil wars in their parties for one. Just as crucially, their policies were either liked or tolerated by the electorate, they were highly skilled at both strategy and tactics and had incompetent opponents. Keating had the added bonus of charisma. No one wants a party to govern that can't govern itself.

[Secretary Polnut]

Lol... when you had the Liberals ripping each other to shreds in the last months of 2009, no one... NO ONE thought the Libs would get themselves in place to help bring down an elected PM, and almost win the election less than a year later.

The focus turns to beating an opposition, hence why I think what happens over the next 3-4 months will be what matters.

The ALP certainly have the ability to continue to self-destruct, but they equally have the ability to pull themselves together and win.

[RogueBeaver]

Can they recover? Sure. But not if they continue on their present course, and they show no signs of changing it.

[You kip if you want to...]

Apparently, no mobile phones are allowed into caucus this morning. How naive.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently, no mobile phones are allowed into caucus this morning. How naive.

It isn't like the result will shock anyone...

[asexual trans victimologist]

Is there any hope of a Coalition leadership spill in the remotely foreseeable future or is the Australian right up Abbott Creek without a paddle for the remainder of this Parliament?

[RogueBeaver]

Is there any hope of a Coalition leadership spill in the remotely foreseeable future or is the Australian right up Abbott Creek without a paddle for the remainder of this Parliament?

At the rate things are going? Not a chance.

[Secretary Polnut]

Is there any hope of a Coalition leadership spill in the remotely foreseeable future or is the Australian right up Abbott Creek without a paddle for the remainder of this Parliament?

At the rate things are going? Not a chance.

I agree, if this continues, Abbott is untouchable.

But if the ALP are able to gain momentum by finally presenting a contrast to Abbott... and if he's seen as the Achilles Heel he is, then the internal divides in the Coalition will become exposed. 

[Secretary Polnut]

Interesting commentary on Sky News.

The average size of victory in successful Labor leadership challenges since 1982 has been 7 votes, even Rudd only won in 2006 49-39.

Gillard's expected margin, up to 44 votes, would be the largest margin in a leadership spill.

[RogueBeaver]

If she thumps him that bad, then forget about any possibility of a second challenge.

Here's a live feed which works for non-Aussies.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/?WT.svl=wrapper

[Secretary Polnut]

Gillard wins: 73 - 29

[You kip if you want to...]

73-29.

[RogueBeaver]

Plus que sa change...

[redcommander]

Epic fail for Rudd.

[Platypus]

Maybe now Labor can start the recovery effort before the election. I can't see Rudd being truly quietened, but at least this should stop the media speculation a little bit.

[Secretary Polnut]

Maybe now Labor can start the recovery effort before the election. I can't see Rudd being truly quietened, but at least this should stop the media speculation a little bit.

I think it will shut up a lot of people both within the party and in the journalistic class, not all, but this size of victory is just too big for many journalists to bother spending as much time on it as they have.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Rudd clearly jumped the gun on this one; he should've waited until after Gillard's (presumptive) defeat and resignation before launching his bid.