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Author Topic: Australia General Discussion  (Read 78538 times)
Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #450 on: August 17, 2012, 10:38:26 am »
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So the potential Labor leaders after Gillard looses to Abbot are:
A socially (and fiscally) conservative weirdo who seems like a porky pine (Swan)
A guy with the personality of a piece of cardboard (Smith)
An old guy who's already had a go leading the party (Crean)
A guy who's so loyal to his leader that he'll threaten a baker who's out of the thing that she wants and will unconditionally agree with her, and would likely demand the same loyalty from his front bench (Shorten)
An uncharismatic, though intelligent, nerd who was also instrumental in the implementation of the carbon tax (Combet)
Two nice folks from the left of the left who I like but are unelectable (Albanese and Plibersek)
If these are the ALP's next generation of leadership, then I would only be partially surprised if the ALP bleeds support to both sides until Australia has a Canada 2011-style re-alignment-of-the-left election within the next decade.  
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« Reply #451 on: August 17, 2012, 11:29:37 am »
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If you think that's possible then you don't really understand Australia.
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« Reply #452 on: August 17, 2012, 11:30:59 am »
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Anyways, I think Shorten counts as the PoMo candidate in any potential leadership spill.
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« Reply #453 on: August 17, 2012, 11:34:53 am »
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We have to wait and see who's left in caucus first...
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #454 on: August 17, 2012, 11:47:59 am »
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If you think that's possible then you don't really understand Australia.
Is the Australian two-party system as engrained as the American one?  Or is Australia just too conservative a country to make the Greens an opposition party? 
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« Reply #455 on: August 17, 2012, 12:00:58 pm »
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If you think that's possible then you don't really understand Australia.
Is the Australian two-party system as engrained as the American one?  Or is Australia just too conservative a country to make the Greens an opposition party? 

It's more that the ALP's base (or, more accurately, bases) has no reason to desert it and would have nowhere to go if (for whatever reason) that were to happen. The Greens certainly offer very little to such people. That's without considering the importance of the political traditions represented by the ALP to a surprisingly wide range of things within Australian society; they're grandfathered in. A few bad federal elections (if that's what does end up happening) won't change that.
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« Reply #456 on: August 17, 2012, 12:01:16 pm »
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If you think that's possible then you don't really understand Australia.
Is the Australian two-party system as engrained as the American one?  Or is Australia just too conservative a country to make the Greens an opposition party? 

The voting system doesn't work that way. Preferencing, remember? While they have serious psephostructural issues getting unseated as un des deux is pure fantasy.
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« Reply #457 on: August 17, 2012, 12:07:28 pm »
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The Labor Party is certainly more similar to our Democratic Party than any other political party in the world is.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #458 on: August 17, 2012, 12:30:27 pm »
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If you think that's possible then you don't really understand Australia.
Is the Australian two-party system as engrained as the American one?  Or is Australia just too conservative a country to make the Greens an opposition party? 

The voting system doesn't work that way. Preferencing, remember? While they have serious psephostructural issues getting unseated as un des deux is pure fantasy.
Wouldn't a preferential system make it easier for them (since people don't have to worry about vote-splitting)?  I mean, people who'd voted Labor in the past could just make the Greens their first-preference vote and Labor their second, and if enough people would do that, their primary vote could surpass Labor's in a lot of electorates (in theory).  Or is the Australian system more complex than that? 
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #459 on: August 17, 2012, 01:41:02 pm »
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The Labor Party is certainly more similar to our Democratic Party than any other political party in the world is.
Wow.  I take it Australia's a really conservative country, then?
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« Reply #460 on: August 17, 2012, 04:50:08 pm »
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It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government. If they're at 60-65 seats post election, which seems about likely, someone along the lines of Andrew Laming, Jason Clare, at a stretch Mark Dreyfus.
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« Reply #461 on: August 17, 2012, 04:52:03 pm »
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If you think that's possible then you don't really understand Australia.
Is the Australian two-party system as engrained as the American one?  Or is Australia just too conservative a country to make the Greens an opposition party? 

The voting system doesn't work that way. Preferencing, remember? While they have serious psephostructural issues getting unseated as un des deux is pure fantasy.
Wouldn't a preferential system make it easier for them (since people don't have to worry about vote-splitting)?  I mean, people who'd voted Labor in the past could just make the Greens their first-preference vote and Labor their second, and if enough people would do that, their primary vote could surpass Labor's in a lot of electorates (in theory).  Or is the Australian system more complex than that? 

It's still not a proportional system and unless the Aussies start conducting their party politics like the French, what you're suggesting wouldn't quite work.

And plus, the Greens are and always will be a niche party, it's in the name. And, from what I gather, their record in the Senate 2010-2013 hasn't been incredible? The carbon tax fiasco has been engineered by the Greens, from what I gather, although i've probably been listening to Tony Abbott too much to come to that conclusion.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #462 on: August 17, 2012, 07:50:38 pm »
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Well, not having a proportional system didn't stop the NDP from overtaking the Liberals in Canada.  And is there any chance of Andrew Leigh becoming Labor leader after the election, or does the fact that he isn't a member of either faction make it impossible?
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« Reply #463 on: August 17, 2012, 08:11:39 pm »
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Well, not having a proportional system didn't stop the NDP from overtaking the Liberals in Canada. 

The relationship between the Liberals and the NDP in Canada is nothing like the ALP and the Greens. Nothing.

And again, Canada has FPTP which causes wave elections all the time in Canada. AV, which Australia has, is inherently designed to maintain a two-party system. The fact that their election results are given as "two-party preferred" says enough as it is.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #464 on: August 17, 2012, 08:50:40 pm »
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Well, not having a proportional system didn't stop the NDP from overtaking the Liberals in Canada. 

The relationship between the Liberals and the NDP in Canada is nothing like the ALP and the Greens. Nothing.

And again, Canada has FPTP which causes wave elections all the time in Canada. AV, which Australia has, is inherently designed to maintain a two-party system. The fact that their election results are given as "two-party preferred" says enough as it is.
Nothing?  The ALP is a centrist party (was once center-left, but as of the 1980's no longer is) which is currently are a minority government.  The Greens are a more left-wing party.  Even though they also need the independents, the ALP government (at least partially) relies on the Greens for survival, and is quite unpopular.  Surely that must sound something like the relationship between the Liberals and the NDP between 2004 and 2006, even though the Greens are unlikely to pull the plug on the government the way the NDP did.  And if the Greens' primary vote surpasses the ALP's, wouldn't the 2PP vote just change from Coalition vs. Labor to Coalition vs. Greens? 
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« Reply #465 on: August 17, 2012, 08:52:40 pm »
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Wayne Swan would lose just as badly or worse than Gillard. If I'm correct, many often see him a laughingstock, and he'd be the first prime minister to never win an election since Billy McMahon (not to mention he'd likely lose his own seat). He'd probably be remembered as a joke in the history books. Then again, "the office, staff and driver for life" might convince Swanny to to do it anyway.

I agree with RogueBeaver though. I think Gillard will still be in place to lose the next election.

What do people here think of Defence Minister Stephen Smith? I keep on hearing him mentioned as a "saving the furniture" guy in the media, but does he actually have anything different to offer?

Not particularly, but he is safe and probably has backing of both wings of the party.

The heir apparent is without a doubt Shorten. Unfortunately Smid is right about the Right controlling the party's leadership.
That sucks.  Would the left have a shot at it if most of the MP's who loose their seats in 2013 are from the right?  'Cause it seems (correct me if I'm wrong) like the majority of MP's who are at risk of loosing their seats are from the right. 

Not sure if that's true or not - ideology doesn't play a big of a role as it does America.
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« Reply #466 on: August 17, 2012, 08:53:44 pm »
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We have to wait and see who's left in caucus first...

tbh most of the big names are in safe seats.

Generally, you'd see more local sort of MPs in marginal seats.
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morgieb
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« Reply #467 on: August 17, 2012, 08:54:36 pm »
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It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government. If they're at 60-65 seats post election, which seems about likely, someone along the lines of Andrew Laming, Jason Clare, at a stretch Mark Dreyfus.

Dude, Laming's a Liberal.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #468 on: August 17, 2012, 08:55:32 pm »
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It isn't happening.
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morgieb
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« Reply #469 on: August 17, 2012, 09:05:40 pm »
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The Labor Party is certainly more similar to our Democratic Party than any other political party in the world is.
Wow.  I take it Australia's a really conservative country, then?

Not entirely, but the problem is that there are some really conservative unions backing the ALP, plus there isn't any real middle party, merely a left party.

It's still more conservative than most other countries.
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« Reply #470 on: August 17, 2012, 10:10:37 pm »
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It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government. If they're at 60-65 seats post election, which seems about likely, someone along the lines of Andrew Laming, Jason Clare, at a stretch Mark Dreyfus.

Dude, Laming's a Liberal.

I meant Andrew Leigh, oops.
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« Reply #471 on: August 18, 2012, 12:26:10 am »
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The Greens won't pass Labor in primary vote for a long time, if at all. They may achieve that in some individual seats - that's how they won their NSW state seat, but it's quite uncommon. They've passed the Liberal vote in a few inner-city seats, but then they need Liberal preferences to win those seats. Of course, they got them in Melbourne, but sentiment in the Liberal Party is different now and they won't be getting them again any time soon, I would suspect.

Green support is concentrated in a few areas, which makes it harder for them to win enough seats to achieve what the NDP accomplished in Canada.

Preferential voting may advantage them with allowing people to vote for them without wasting their vote, but the real benefit compared to other countries is the Senate, where PR allows them to win seats, which gives them publicity, which gains them votes.
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« Reply #472 on: August 18, 2012, 12:55:45 am »
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Also, the Canadian electorate is incredibly volatile; the Australian electorate is not so much.
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« Reply #473 on: August 18, 2012, 03:03:52 am »
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Also, the Canadian electorate is incredibly volatile; the Australian electorate is not so much.

Queensland and NSW to deny.
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« Reply #474 on: August 18, 2012, 06:00:16 am »
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Queensland at a stretch, largely because it hasn't been as clearly two-party as the rest of the nation. It is now, but you see the right wing in QLD fracture a lot and it will fracture again, whether through disintegration of the LNP or rising new challengers like BKAP or PHON back in the 90s.

NSW saw a few minor parties do surprisingly well, but a massive swing to the opposition away from the government doesn't really count as volatility when compared to Canada.
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