Australia General Discussion

[Peter the Lefty]

It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government. If they're at 60-65 seats post election, which seems about likely, someone along the lines of Andrew Laming, Jason Clare, at a stretch Mark Dreyfus.

Dude, Laming's a Liberal.

I meant Andrew Leigh, oops.

Yaayy!  I'm a big fan of his.  A true unabashed social democrat who isn't a slave to either faction.  Hope he becomes Labor leader and fixes up the party (both structurally and ideologically) and becomes PM. 

[You kip if you want to...]

Queensland at a stretch, largely because it hasn't been as clearly two-party as the rest of the nation. It is now, but you see the right wing in QLD fracture a lot and it will fracture again, whether through disintegration of the LNP or rising new challengers like BKAP or PHON back in the 90s.

NSW saw a few minor parties do surprisingly well, but a massive swing to the opposition away from the government doesn't really count as volatility when compared to Canada.

Swings in Canada and Australia make UK elections seem so predictable.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government. If they're at 60-65 seats post election, which seems about likely, someone along the lines of Andrew Laming, Jason Clare, at a stretch Mark Dreyfus.

Dude, Laming's a Liberal.

I meant Andrew Leigh, oops.

Yaayy!  I'm a big fan of his.  A true unabashed social democrat who isn't a slave to either faction.  Hope he becomes Labor leader and fixes up the party (both structurally and ideologically) and becomes PM. 

Very smart man too - he's basically the Antony Green/Nate Silver/etc. of parliament.

[You kip if you want to...]

It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government. If they're at 60-65 seats post election, which seems about likely, someone along the lines of Andrew Laming, Jason Clare, at a stretch Mark Dreyfus.

Dude, Laming's a Liberal.

I meant Andrew Leigh, oops.

Yaayy!  I'm a big fan of his.  A true unabashed social democrat who isn't a slave to either faction.  Hope he becomes Labor leader and fixes up the party (both structurally and ideologically) and becomes PM. 

Very smart man too - he's basically the Antony Green/Nate Silver/etc. of parliament.

If that's the case, guys like that have no business running the show, just pulling the strings come election time. Like a Peter Mandelson or a David Axelrod. They're just more effective that way.

[Peter the Lefty]

It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government. If they're at 60-65 seats post election, which seems about likely, someone along the lines of Andrew Laming, Jason Clare, at a stretch Mark Dreyfus.

Dude, Laming's a Liberal.

I meant Andrew Leigh, oops.

Yaayy!  I'm a big fan of his.  A true unabashed social democrat who isn't a slave to either faction.  Hope he becomes Labor leader and fixes up the party (both structurally and ideologically) and becomes PM. 

Very smart man too - he's basically the Antony Green/Nate Silver/etc. of parliament.

If that's the case, guys like that have no business running the show, just pulling the strings come election time. Like a Peter Mandelson or a David Axelrod. They're just more effective that way.

Well, he's also very charismatic.  I suppose you could say he's both a head and a heart as well.  I'm guessing he's seen as far more ideologically in line with the Left faction than with the right?

[Smid]

It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government.

Shorten has obviously had a few gaffes of late - eating humble pie, and not knowing what he supports, but I didn't think either were enough to stop him from becoming Leader. However... after yesterday's gaffe, I don't think he can ever become leader.

EMPLOYMENT Minister Bill Shorten ruled out any immediate increase to the $13,000 a year Newstart allowance yesterday, despite declaring he finds it "hard to make ends meet" on his much larger salary of about $330,000.

(Source)

For our international readers, Newstart allowance is the government/brand name for unemployment welfare payments. Specifically, here is Minister Shorten's quote from the same article:

I think it would be very difficult to live on $249 (a week). I've got a young family, I find it hard enough to make ends meet currently and I've got a job.

[RogueBeaver]

You were right about the "next Latham" thing Smid. Now all we need is him getting physical or profane on camera.

[Peter the Lefty]

It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government.

Shorten has obviously had a few gaffes of late - eating humble pie, and not knowing what he supports, but I didn't think either were enough to stop him from becoming Leader. However... after yesterday's gaffe, I don't think he can ever become leader.

THANK GOD! 

[RogueBeaver]

We'll see if caucus shares our view of Shorten. They already had one Latham and don't need another. However as a Coalition fan I sure hope they pick him- it would be an increased majority in Abbott's second term.

[Solopop]

If Gillard loses the election in 2016 Roxon will be Labor leader.

[RogueBeaver]

Alan Jones trolls Gillard.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/latest/14996717/gillards-father-died-of-shame-alan-jones/

[Secretary Polnut]

Alan Jones trolls Gillard.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/latest/14996717/gillards-father-died-of-shame-alan-jones/

It was absolutely disgusting...

[Platypus]

If Gillard loses the election in 2016 Roxon will be Labor leader.

Highly improbable, and from a personal viewpoint, highly undesirable.

------

Re: Jones. Not a surprise he's a tosser, just a surprise the media have decided to make a scandal out of this. Why not any of the last 327 disgusting things he's said in the last few years?

[Secretary Polnut]

If Gillard loses the election in 2016 Roxon will be Labor leader.

Trust me anyone who has to deal with her personally will not want that...

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

If Gillard loses the election in 2016 Roxon will be Labor leader.

Highly improbable, and from a personal viewpoint, highly undesirable.

------

Re: Jones. Not a surprise he's a tosser, just a surprise the media have decided to make a scandal out of this. Why not any of the last 327 disgusting things he's said in the last few years?

Well it's about time they did....

[Solopop]

If Gillard loses the election in 2016 Roxon will be Labor leader.

Trust me anyone who has to deal with her personally will not want that...

Really, people I know who've worked with her quite like her.

[RogueBeaver]

Slipper claims conspiracy?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/9589923/Australian-parliament-speaker-Peter-Slipper-claims-political-conspiracy.html

[Vosem]

So, I don't follow Australian politics much, so forgive my ignorance, but...has there been a swing towards the ALP recently?

[RogueBeaver]

A few weeks ago there was a 50-50 poll but no polls have been published since then. Abbott's still favoured but he can't get complacent.

[Solopop]

Abbott's not favored Gillard's smashing him in who's a better leader and more likeable.

And 2 Party polling shows Labor and Liberals tied, so Labor support is growing.

[Platypus]

The state of it is basically this: Nobody likes the government, but when they have to choose between a labor government or a Tony Abbott Prime Ministership, they're splitting down the middle.

The question is, who is more likely to make themselves more attractive: Labor as a whole, or Abbott?

[Smid]

Slipper resigns

[Smid]

Embarrassingly, given his lewd text messages, the Prime Minister and Attorney-General who believe that Tony Abbott has a problem with women, somewhat hypocritically supported him to remain as Speaker today.

I won't copy any of his texts here, but a google search of "peter slipper salty" will turn up results for anyone who wants to assess for themselves the content of his messages.

[Platypus]

I've never seen my facebook wall so full of blind people. The left are completely ignoring the texts but all posting about Gillard's absolutely stunning parliamentary performance, the right are all ignoring the fact that Abbott got reamed in parliament and focussing on what a horrible, horrible man Slipper is.

So even though the guy Gillard was indirectly supporting is filth of the kind that the left hates, and even though Slipper represented the coalition for something like 20 years, everyone got what they wanted from today.

As for me... as much as I hate Abbott and was pretty much cheering on the PM word for word, I think the resignation makes the day a slight win for the opposition.

...although probably more accurately, everyone lost except the hacks.

[Platypus]

Gillard in parliament, btw:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihd7ofrwQX0

Worth a watch.