Australia General Discussion

[Knives]

Obvious sarcasm...

[morgieb]

That was a bigger-than-expected victory for the Liberals in Western Australia -does anyone think they can replicate it in South Australian elections next year?  

Probably, though IIRC they aren't as on the nose there as they were in NSW & Queensland.

I fear for the GE. Might even be worse than 75/77, let alone 96.

[RogueBeaver]

If the current polls hold it would be late '70s all over again, question is whether they do. I think Labor claws back a bit and we're back to '96 or '04 assuming the trajectory doesn't change.

[Knives]

Labor will lose about 12 seats federally is it continues the way it's going.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My view is (assuming things don't change) they'll lose 6-10 seats.

This government needs a circuit-breaker. Now, were I not sure that Abbott would be a terrible PM (and leading a Government without a positive agenda of their own), I would be willing for the end of this self-flagellating government.

I'm almost the point where I'm praying (and not being a religious man) for Turnbull to roll Abbott and put all questions of the result away. At least that's a leader I could deal with relatively happily.

Melodramatic? Yes.

But this will be an important couple of weeks...

[Hifly]

Labor will lose about 12 seats federally is it continues the way it's going.

And you agreed with the notion that there would not be much change in the Western Australian Election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor will lose about 12 seats federally is it continues the way it's going.

And you agreed with the notion that there would not be much change in the Western Australian Election.

While I think a change to Rudd could change the direction they're heading in... but for how long? Who knows?

I think it's the ALP brand that's the problem...

[Platypus]

The ALP brand also held all state and territories and the federal government not that long ago.

The branding isn't the issue, it's just that the Libs have woken up to what people want in their state governments, and Labor had been in for too long. The federal party obviously contributed to these recent results, but in the leftish states, labor is still competitive or ahead in the polls at state/territory level.

Not sure what my point is other than that Labor is far from dead. Greens might be dying, though.

[Smid]

Labor will lose about 12 seats federally is it continues the way it's going.

And you agreed with the notion that there would not be much change in the Western Australian Election.

While I think a change to Rudd could change the direction they're heading in... but for how long? Who knows?

I think it's the ALP brand that's the problem...

Galaxy poll today would support your position - the PM outpolled Rudd as preferred Labor leader, although I think she was outpolled by a combined "Shorten or Combet"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ALP brand also held all state and territories and the federal government not that long ago.

The branding isn't the issue, it's just that the Libs have woken up to what people want in their state governments, and Labor had been in for too long. The federal party obviously contributed to these recent results, but in the leftish states, labor is still competitive or ahead in the polls at state/territory level.

Not sure what my point is other than that Labor is far from dead. Greens might be dying, though.

I'm not saying that the ALP is dead... because it's not. Buuuuttt... while there might be some areas where they're doing well, the ACT and VIC for example, the ALP brand is damaged in a lot of places, especially those places where seats need to be won. Look at QLD or NSW... let alone what just happened in WA.

However, the size of the swings against the Greens in the ACT (where they should have a natural foothold) and in WA tells you that more than likely, as I've been arguing  for ages... 2010 was their high water-mark.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Probably all it is is Australian voters being less reflexively pro-incumbent than they used to be. Something that also contributed to the disastrous string (upon string) of Coalition performances in state elections not all that long ago. Probably also some long-serving (and often, if we're being entirely honest, less than competent) state ALP governments have hurt the party's reputation in general, but there's no reason to believe that will have lasting consequences federally. If the Coalition do win later this year (God forbid, etc) they'll find themselves in a non-brilliant situation pretty quickly as well.

[RogueBeaver]

Labor shouldn't get too down. Remember the 1996, 2004 and 2007 elections and the triumphalist punditry that emerged after each. Stuff like this.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/09/1097261866624.html

[You kip if you want to...]

If the Coalition wins federally, Victoria will fall to the ALP again and the ALP will do well in SA in 2014 and the cycle resets.

[Knives]

Also you must note, WA is not anything like the rest of the country atm.

[Frodo]

Also you must note, WA is not anything like the rest of the country atm.

What makes Western Australia so different from, say, South Australia?  Especially once they start fully exploiting their own fossil fuels for export? 

[Mr. Morden]

Also you must note, WA is not anything like the rest of the country atm.

What makes Western Australia so different from, say, South Australia?  Especially once they start fully exploiting their own fossil fuels for export?  

Well, for starters, look at the "per capita" numbers in this table:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_states_and_territories_by_gross_state_product

EDIT: Actually, it's kind of funny how in Australia, per capita GDP is positively correlated with the state voting for the more conservative party, while in the USA, it's negatively correlated with the state voting for the more conservative party.

Of course, as Andrew Gelman would tell you, while the poor states vote Republican in the USA, it's actually the richer people in those poor states who are the ones backing Republicans.

[Talleyrand]

If the Coalition wins federally, Victoria will fall to the ALP again and the ALP will do well in SA in 2014 and the cycle resets.

It's much too early to predict the state-by-state results if the House of Representatives falls to the Coalition this September, but I have to disagree with you on SA. My understanding is that there is some extreme Labor fatigue there after over a decade of ALP rule and they're likely headed for a defeat, if not a blowout. In the event they do hold on, I'd say they head for a NSW-style massacre in 2018.

As for Victoria, I'd say there's a 50-50 chance it switches back, but it's unclear what effect the replacement of Ted Baillieu with Denis Naphstone will have at this point.


Judging from the trajectories of the most recent statewide elections anyway, I'd say Gillard's in fo a '96 style defeat, although I could envision a narrower loss if the ssituation becomes more like it was late last year in terms of the electoral landscape.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll is interesting ...

Gillard regains preferred PM title, the ALP primary is up to 34% and the Coalitions down to 44% for a 52-48% TPP.

However... the NP also shows a return to Rudd would shift the ALP primary to 47 and drop the Coalition to 39%

[You kip if you want to...]

Newspoll is interesting ...

Gillard regains preferred PM title, the ALP primary is up to 34% and the Coalitions down to 44% for a 52-48% TPP.

Too far out of line with the rest. I'd wait to see if the rest of the firms show such a move.

I don't see Rudd being worth +13% either... I hate these what if polls.

[RogueBeaver]

Same here. We'll see fluctuations like that till polling day.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well yes, all with my caveat on election year polling.

[RogueBeaver]

When's the budget due again? Last I heard nothing major was expected from it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

14 May - it's difficult to tell if there will be some kind of election-year goodies. I'm expecting something small. There will probably be something to flesh out an existing policy or announcement, which is the usual tactic when money is tight.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll is interesting ...

Gillard regains preferred PM title, the ALP primary is up to 34% and the Coalitions down to 44% for a 52-48% TPP.

However... the NP also shows a return to Rudd would shift the ALP primary to 47 and drop the Coalition to 39%

Yeah, the part with Rudd seems questionable. Did they release TPP figures for that scenario?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll is interesting ...

Gillard regains preferred PM title, the ALP primary is up to 34% and the Coalitions down to 44% for a 52-48% TPP.

However... the NP also shows a return to Rudd would shift the ALP primary to 47 and drop the Coalition to 39%

Yeah, the part with Rudd seems questionable. Did they release TPP figures for that scenario?

56-44...