Australia General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

Green's new calculator is out.  56-44 is 99-46 on a uniform swing.

Gillard isn't going, and switching is one way for 2 leaders to share a bullet. As if Howard had suddenly punted the football into Costello's lap in spring '07...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2013/calculator/

[You kip if you want to...]

Yeah, it didn't work spectacularly in 2010 either. I do hope we haven't all forgotten that train wreck of a campaign from the ALP.

[Knives]

What about after the election?

[Smid]

If Gillard goes or is challenged, then I think it has to be Rudd... I can't think of anyone else who could cut through in this time and, at the same time, can't be tied to everything this Government has done.

Smith is too boring, Shorten is too green and tied to Gillard (despite his attempts to suggest otherwise) and is known as a faceless man, Crean is past it, Carr is in the Senate... Swan, just no... Plibersek? no... so that leaves someone like Combet or perhaps someone like Clare as a dark-horse.

Combet is too closely tied to the Carbon Tax.

I disagree with you on one of the other ones you've declined, but that would just be my opinion.

I think that if anyone wanted to take over, they would have to be someone who was not concerned with leaving a legacy, because they would likely expect to have about six months in the job to leave their mark, and not likely to become PM again after that. They'd really want to be someone who was willing to have their name in the history books as a PM, but barely a footnote beyond that. They might be willing to do it as a favour to the party, to save the furniture, so to speak, and probably hope that they could turn things around - but would need to be realistic about their chances and realise that they'd likely only be holding the job this year, so not harbouring long-term ambitions.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Smid, based on that... I think I know who you might be suggesting of those I've dismissed.

[RogueBeaver]

Long Rinehart profile from the New Yorker.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2013/03/25/130325fa_fact_finnegan?currentPage=all

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/many-shades-of-grey-in-art-of-denial-of-spills-and-other-ills-20130319-2gdni.html

Very good article about this leadership "stuff"

[Smid]

Apparently there is to be a Labor caucus meeting at 4pm?

[RogueBeaver]

I`ll believe it when I see it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Apparently there is to be a Labor caucus meeting at 4pm?

''It would be silly to tell people watching your program that there is nothing going on,''

Comment from Joel Fitzgibbon a short time ago...

[You kip if you want to...]

Apparently there is to be a Labor caucus meeting at 4pm?

''It would be silly to tell people watching your program that there is nothing going on,''

Comment from Joel Fitzgibbon a short time ago...

As if, for something major?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, it didn't work spectacularly in 2010 either. I do hope we haven't all forgotten that train wreck of a campaign from the ALP.

Keep in mind... the ALP had 55-45 lead at the start of the campaign... the horrendous campaign brought them down.

[Smid]

Apparently there is to be a Labor caucus meeting at 4pm?

''It would be silly to tell people watching your program that there is nothing going on,''

Comment from Joel Fitzgibbon a short time ago...

A senior Rudd backer... will be interesting to see if that means there won't be another third candidate rise up through the middle.

[RogueBeaver]

When does caucus normally meet? It could just be a yellow light... but isn't this how 2010 went down? Is there a TV feed we non-Aussies could watch?

On a related note, who are the best #auspol reporters to follow on Twitter? Ones who actually Tweet that is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Apparently there is to be a Labor caucus meeting at 4pm?

''It would be silly to tell people watching your program that there is nothing going on,''

Comment from Joel Fitzgibbon a short time ago...

A senior Rudd backer... will be interesting to see if that means there won't be another third candidate rise up through the middle.

He said something... cryptic in the same comments "there will not be an extraordinary meeting of the caucus about leadership"... but he also said numbers for a challenge are not being counted.

So it's all a bit strange...

[Smid]

...but he also said numbers for a challenge are not being counted.

Perhaps a deal has been done and so there is no need to count? Bit of a pedantic interpretation, but he could be saying it like that to sort of hose down speculation while still being technically correct?

Could be something else entirely, of course.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah - my immediate gut reaction is that nothing will happen.

But I was the person 2 days before the 2010 move who said "surely they wouldn't be that stupid", when a friend in the loop told me rumbles were getting deafening.

[RogueBeaver]

Is the Carr leak a coincidence? The news that "this has to be settled by Thursday?" These things take a few days minimum if done half-competently.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obviously "this has to be settled by Thursday" means it has to be settled before Parliament rises for their autumn recess. It'll be the last sitting day before the Budget session in mid-May.

[RogueBeaver]

Nothing on Twitter yet.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd advise not to get too excited - IF there is a meeting, the likely reason for two caucus meetings in a row is due to either a pep talk or a bollocking.

Having another caucus meeting is odd, but considering how shaky the MPs are... it's not shocking.

[morgieb]

End of Juliar?

[RogueBeaver]

Heh, who knows. I think it would be monumentally stupid, but if they're in full-blown panic mode...

[Platypus]

Simon Crean please.

I supported Gillard taking over from before it was a real possibility, and I'm glad she did. I've supported her fully, until about yesterday. But the last week has shifted my view, to the point where now the number one concern has to be stopping an Abbott win, and particularly an Abbott win with huge numbers. I don't know who can do that, but I now think it can't be Gillard, and that's a shame.

[RogueBeaver]

Oakes reported that Ruddites are pinging, but they won't try moving till Friday earliest.

http://www.coastalleader.com.au/story/1376500/gillards-silver-lining-rudd-a-no-go-for-regional-australia/?cs=2452