Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Brilliant employment report... over 50,000 jobs created in April, participation rate up and unemployment down to 5.5%...

[Hifly]

Brilliant employment report... over 50,000 jobs created in April, participation rate up and unemployment down to 5.5%...

Sorry to disappoint but that still won't help relieve Labor's woes

[morgieb]

Yes. If this election was actually fought on the economy, Liberals would have Hockey or Turnbull as their leader.

[politicus]

Yes. If this election was actually fought on the economy, Liberals would have Hockey or Turnbull as their leader.

If you should give a top three on the issues that are going to decide this election, what would they be?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Brilliant employment report... over 50,000 jobs created in April, participation rate up and unemployment down to 5.5%...

Sorry to disappoint but that still won't help relieve Labor's woes

Lol... it's amusing you think I think it would make a whiff of difference.

After watching the Lib IR announcement today... I said "he's just won the election".

Polls will tighten, but I don't see how Gillard can pull this out... people have just stopped listening, it's as simple as that.

[morgieb]

Yes. If this election was actually fought on the economy, Liberals would have Hockey or Turnbull as their leader.

If you should give a top three on the issues that are going to decide the electio, what would they be?

It's very hard to say. What I can say are the issues that are hurting Labor:

- poor leadership. Swan works hard but he isn't a natural politician, and Gillard seems to lack an emotional touch. If Rudd were still there Labor would be in a better state.
- certain elements of the media are somewhat misogynist.
- Labor struggles to govern. They're perceived as being in the pocket of the Greens and independents.
- Carbon tax and its scare campaign. Most people are still somewhat worried about their hip pocket
- Lingering scare of corruption on their heads, from the Thomson, Slipper and Obeid scandals.
- Rudd is still there, the media is always talking about him returning and it's somewhat destabilising to the party.

Ironically on an issues + economy based election Labor would be comfortable favourites IMO.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Honestly, I think the issues are about perception...

I agree on 'leadership', Gillard isn't seen a strong leader (plus she still is seen as a liar and disloyal)... which will hurt, but the second is perceptions on personal economic security. Funnily, I think the carbon price is an increasingly weak element of this. Despite ALL evidence to the contrary.... people seem to think the economy is weak.

To me, it'll be about leadership and the perceived economy.

[Phony Moderate]

This was discussed in a thread on the IE board, but who is most likely to become the next leader of the ALP after the probable defeat in September?

[Platypus]

Peter Slipper joins Clive Palmer's United Australia Party, which allows it to officially register, and then gets unanimously expelled.

Queensland

[tik 🪀✨]

The 2013-14 budget was announced yesterday. Lots of people disappointed, the opposition is calling the plan to get back into surplus next year a farce. Am I the only one who doesn't care about the deficit that much?

Still, plenty of cuts to satisfy if that's your priority, plus new taxes. Didn't see that coming.

[tik 🪀✨]

http://m.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/cornered-labor-chooses-brave-way-out-20130514-2jklb.html

Interesting theories.

[RogueBeaver]

New taxes as part of that new bipartisan Medicare thing, amirite? Abbott will have to choose between repealing one or both taxes- I suspect he pushes hard on mining-, a faster balance schedule and his own entitlement hobbyhorse. Plus the baby bonus was axed, kudos to Gillard/Swan for that. Libs added plenty of entitlements last time they were in office, and as we say in French, "sa suffit."

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New taxes as part of that new bipartisan Medicare thing, amirite? Abbott will have to choose between repealing one or both taxes- I suspect he pushes hard on mining-, a faster balance schedule and his own entitlement hobbyhorse. Plus the baby bonus was axed, kudos to Gillard/Swan for that. Libs added plenty of entitlements last time they were in office, and as we say in French, "sa suffit."

Too many entitlements for people who didn't need them. I don't care what Howard and Costello say, these are MASSIVE drains on the economy, it's fine to have these massive handouts (which is what they are) when the revenue is streaming in... but when revenue slows down (which it will regardless of who is in power) there are consequences on the bottom line if you keep them.

The surplus won't come until 2016-17... but I think people need to consider this... they've found over $300b in savings since 08 and there have been revenue write-downs of $170b ... and they're less than $20b short of a surplus... it's actually pretty fricking remarkable.

There have been some errors, namely weakening the mining tax to the extent that they did ($6 billion in tax credits against it, which is why it's bring in f*%( all).

[RogueBeaver]

New taxes as part of that new bipartisan Medicare thing, amirite? Abbott will have to choose between repealing one or both taxes- I suspect he pushes hard on mining-, a faster balance schedule and his own entitlement hobbyhorse. Plus the baby bonus was axed, kudos to Gillard/Swan for that. Libs added plenty of entitlements last time they were in office, and as we say in French, "sa suffit."

Too many entitlements for people who didn't need them. I don't care what Howard and Costello say, these are MASSIVE drains on the economy, it's fine to have these massive handouts (which is what they are) when the revenue is streaming in... but when revenue slows down (which it will regardless of who is in power) there are consequences on the bottom line if you keep them.

The surplus won't come until 2016-17... but I think people need to consider this... they've found over $300b in savings since 08 and there have been revenue write-downs of $170b ... and they're less than $20b short of a surplus... it's actually pretty fricking remarkable.

There have been some errors, namely weakening the mining tax to the extent that they did ($6 billion in tax credits against it, which is why it's bring in f*%( all).

I'm a bit speechless. We're in total agreement on an economic issue, that is the entitlements.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New taxes as part of that new bipartisan Medicare thing, amirite? Abbott will have to choose between repealing one or both taxes- I suspect he pushes hard on mining-, a faster balance schedule and his own entitlement hobbyhorse. Plus the baby bonus was axed, kudos to Gillard/Swan for that. Libs added plenty of entitlements last time they were in office, and as we say in French, "sa suffit."

Too many entitlements for people who didn't need them. I don't care what Howard and Costello say, these are MASSIVE drains on the economy, it's fine to have these massive handouts (which is what they are) when the revenue is streaming in... but when revenue slows down (which it will regardless of who is in power) there are consequences on the bottom line if you keep them.

The surplus won't come until 2016-17... but I think people need to consider this... they've found over $300b in savings since 08 and there have been revenue write-downs of $170b ... and they're less than $20b short of a surplus... it's actually pretty fricking remarkable.

There have been some errors, namely weakening the mining tax to the extent that they did ($6 billion in tax credits against it, which is why it's bring in f*%( all).

I'm a bit speechless. We're in total agreement on an economic issue, that is the entitlements.

Well, I support making sure the unemployed and those who need help get it. But I don't support forking out $5000 for someone who has a child or to make sure people with plenty of money to pay for their kids private school uniforms or laptops ...

There was a woman who asked the PM a question about "why her family wasn't getting anything under the carbon price" - she would have had a household income well over $150k per year... this is the entitlement mentality we need to throw off, not support for people who need it. Sometimes, in a society, you pay more than you're going to get back.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd now supports SSM, I crossposted this in the election thread.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rudd now supports SSM, I crossposted this in the election thread.

He's in the process of a press conference in Brisbane as I write.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

By-election in the NSW state electorate of Northern Tablelands today, will be interesting to see who wins. Northern Tablelands covers much of the same territory as the federal seat of New England.

While state and federal politics are very different, there's no doubt the result here tonight will give some indication of whether Windsor will hold on come September...

Also, R.I.P. Hazel Hawke, the former wife of former PM Bob Hawke passed away from Alzheimer's complications on Thursday. She will be missed, and although I don't agree with the Hawkes and Mr. Hawke's government, Mrs. Hawke was never afraid to make a stand, and that I can appreciate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Actually, considering this is an open election with a lot of candidates and without Tony Windsor's deep personal vote and Barnaby's profile being thrown into the mix... I would be very hesitant to put too much weight on the results.

It's not that they're not useful at all... but there are a lot of elements in this that are unrelated to the Federal Election.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Actually, considering this is an open election with a lot of candidates and without Tony Windsor's deep personal vote and Barnaby's profile being thrown into the mix... I would be very hesitant to put too much weight on the results.

It's not that they're not useful at all... but there are a lot of elements in this that are unrelated to the Federal Election.

Very true, it will be interesting to see who wins this very open race! Only a few hours to go now...

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

With nearly 3/4 of the booths in, Northern Tablelands is a National gain. As Polnut said, without the presence of Windsor and Joyce, you can't take too much from this and apply it to what may happen in New England come September, although the Nationals doing well everywhere, even in Armidale, a university town. does say something.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's an impressive result, especially considering the NAT is what? 25? (he looks about 17... but I think he's mid-20s)

But the only thing I would say people should be thinking about - this is a natural NAT area - the ALP hasn't done well there in generations. They will instinctively vote NAT when there isn't a strong local Independent, and they have now.

The other thing in relation to Armidale, MOST Uni students who live away from home tend to keep their electoral enrolment at their family home. So yes, the NATs did better than normal - but it's not an electorate full of "lefty Uni types".

[Hifly]

If the Nats were to gain an additional seat and get to 20 could they potentially have the power to challenge Labor to become official opposition in the highly unlikely event that they desert the Libs?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

It's an impressive result, especially considering the NAT is what? 25? (he looks about 17... but I think he's mid-20s)

But the only thing I would say people should be thinking about - this is a natural NAT area - the ALP hasn't done well there in generations. They will instinctively vote NAT when there isn't a strong local Independent, and they have now.

The other thing in relation to Armidale, MOST Uni students who live away from home tend to keep their electoral enrolment at their family home. So yes, the NATs did better than normal - but it's not an electorate full of "lefty Uni types".

He's only 25? Good to see someone from my generation in Parliament from the Nationals! I figured this was a natural National electorate, although Labor did win Northern Tablelands in both 1981 and 1984 if I'm not mistaken. However, those elections, especially 1981, were good elections for the Labor party.

If the Nats were to gain an additional seat and get to 20 could they potentially have the power to challenge Labor to become official opposition in the highly unlikely event that they desert the Libs?

They could in theory, but considering the NSW Coalition is unlikely to collapse any time soon, this wouldn't happen.

As Antony Green and Polnut have pointed out, this was not a contest for New England, and Windsor's main support base is Tamworth, which did not vote tonight.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Kevin Rudd is putting his Canberra home on the market - good luck with that considering the Abbottocalypse has already sent home prices down and killed the market.