Australia General Discussion

[Smid]

Yes, I always found it "interesting" (not really the right word) that a seat that was a Liberal gain from Labor had roughly the same margin as Malvern, the safest Victorian Liberal seat (which is a commentary on the NSW margin/swing, not a statement that Victorian Liberals only have marginal seats, for those who are unfamiliar with the seats in question).

[morgieb]

Polling apparently showing not much of a bump for team Liberal. Is this normal?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The polling is somewhat strange - it's unusual for no honeymoon bump to appear, let alone slides backwards. Plus, the Essential preferred PM numbers are shocking for a new PM, +5 against Shorten and +6 against Albanese - with Abbott below 40%.

Frankly, anyone who can objectively say they've gotten off to a good start is a bit delusional.

[RogueBeaver]

Since we all need a good laugh, here's Latham's latest screed. Turn off the irony meters before reading, as usual. A lot of it is his usual themes, but also manages to call Albo an intellectual lightweight with little policy depth, shady associations and a narrow-minded urban leftist.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Considering how popular Albo is with the party membership ... he'd be well-advised to keep his mouth shut. Frankly I found the whole 'Shorten is the natural heir to Hawke/Keating' stuff I'm hearing from an increasingly unnerved right faction to be utter-utter drivel.

I'm not going to lie, I've been more impressed with him over the past fortnight than I ever have ... but I still don't see either a fighter or a leader.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-24/jostling-over-senate-seat-yet-to-be-vacated/4978714

What does everyone think about the upcoming casual vacancy that will come with Bob Carr's resignation as Senator for NSW?

It appears that former MPs Deb O'Neill (Robertson) and Mike Kelly (Eden-Monaro) will put their hands up for the position. Peter Van Onselen says a deal has already been made to put O'Neill into the seat to fill Labor's affirmative action quotas, but he believes Kelly, who would have become Defence Minister if Labor had held power, would be a far better bargain for the ALP in the long-run.

[Hifly]

I'm extremely happy that Deb O'Neill will fill the casual vacancy, which is wholly necessary considering that Ursula Stephens lost her seat.
But more importantly, I highly commend Paul Howes for recognising that his liberal views on SSM are divisive within the party and his faction, and thus I support his decision to not contest the vacancy. There would also have been other PR issues with a union boss being parachuted into a senate seat as this would probably not have gone down well with the public.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I would have MUCH preferred Kelly.

[Hifly]

I would have MUCH preferred Kelly.

If he opposed SSM he would have had a better chance.

[RogueBeaver]

Don't know enough to judge. As for Howes, there were many other reasons besides SSM (I'm guessing the ALP will move his way on that issue within a few years) for why he didn't force the issue. I'm more curious to see if he eventually enters the Reps.

[Talleyrand]

Don't know enough to judge. As for Howes, there were many other reasons besides SSM (I'm guessing the ALP will move his way on that issue within a few years) for why he didn't force the issue. I'm more curious to see if he eventually enters the Reps.

I hope he doesn't make it in...

Is there any place where we can find how the ALP Parliamentary Caucus is breaking down for the upcoming ballot?

Here's my count-

Confirmed Shorten (20)

1.   Bill Shorten, MP for Maribyrnong, VIC
2.   Sam Dastyari, Senator for NSW
3.   Stephen Conroy, Senator VIC
4.   Glenn Sterle, Senator for WA
5.   Don Farrell, Senator for SA
6.   Catryna Bilyk, Senator for TAS
7.   Helen Polley, Senator for TAS
8.   Laurie Ferguson, MP for Werriwa, NSW
9.   Ed Husic, MP for Chifley, NSW
10.   Anthony Byrne, MP for Holt, VIC
11.   Mark Dreyfus, MP for Isaacs, VIC
12.   David Feeney, MP for Batman, VIC
13.   Richard Marles, MP for Corio, VIC
14.   Rob Mitchell, MP for McEwen, VIC
15.   Tim Watts, MP for Gellibrand, VIC
16.   Jim Chalmers, MP for Rankin, QLD
17.   Shayne Neumann, MP for Blair, QLD
18.   Bernie Ripoll, MP for Oxley, QLD
19.   Kate Ellis, MP for Adelaide, SA
20.   Warren Snowdon, MP for Lingiari, NT

Albanese (18)

1.   Anthony Albanese, MP for Grayndler, NSW
2.   Doug Cameron, Senator for NSW
3.   Louise Pratt, Senator for WA
4.   Penny Wong, Senator for SA
5.   Carol Brown, Senator for TAS
6.   Lisa Singh, Senator TAS
7.   Lin Thorp, Senator TAS
8.   Anne Urquhart, Senator TAS
9.   Sharon Claydon, MP for Newcastle, NSW
10.   Pat Conroy, MP for Charlton, NSW
11.   Jill Hall, MP for Shortland, NSW
12.   Tanya Plibersek, MP for Sydney, NSW
13.   Jenny Macklin, MP for Jagajaga, VIC
14.   Graham Perrett, MP for Moreton, QLD
15.   Alannah MacTiernan, MP for Perth, WA
16.   Mark Butler, MP for Port Adelaide, SA
17.   Julie Collins, MP for Franklin, TAS
18.   Andrew Leigh, MP for Fraser, ACT

Unconfirmed (48)

1.   Bob Carr, Senator NSW
2.   John Faulkner, Senator NSW
3.   Ursula Stephens, Senator NSW
4.   Kim Carr, Senator VIC
5.   Jacinta Collins, Senator VIC
6.   Gavin Marshall, Senator VIC
7.   Mehmet Tillem, Senator VIC
8.   Mark Furner, Senator QLD
9.   John Hogg, Senator QLD
10.   Joe Ludwig, Senator QLD
11.   Jan McLucas, Senator QLD
12.   Claire Moore, Senator QLD
13.   Mark Bishop, Senator WA
14.   Sue Lines, Senator WA
15.   Alex Gallacher, Senator SA
16.   Anne McEwen, Senator SA
17.   Kate Lundy, Senator ACT
18.   Nova Peris, Senator NT
19.   Sharon Bird, MP for Cunningham, NSW
20.   Chris Bowen, MP for McMahon, NSW
21.   Tony Burke, MP for Watson, NSW
22.   Jason Clare, MP for Blaxland, NSW
23.   Justine Elliot, MP for Richmond, NSW
24.   Joel Fitzgibbon, MP for Hunter, NSW
25.   Chris Hayes, MP for Fowler, NSW
26.   Stephen Jones, MP for Throsby, NSW
27.   Julie Owens, MP for Parramatta, NSW
28.   Michelle Rowland, MP for Greenway, NSW
29.   Matt Thistlethwaite, MP for Kingsford Smith, NSW
30.   Anna Burke, MP for Chisholm, VIC
31.   Lisa Chesters, MP for Bendigo, VIC
32.   Michael Danby, MP for Melbourne Ports, VIC
33.   Andrew Giles, MP for Scullin, VIC
34.   Alan Griffin, MP for Bruce, VIC
35.   Catherine King, MP for Ballarat, VIC
36.   Brendan O’Connor, MP for Gorton, VIC
37.   Clare O’Neil, MP for Hotham, VIC
38.   Joanne Ryan, MP for Lalor, VIC
39.   Kelvin Thompson, MP for Wills, VIC
40.   Maria Vamvakinou, MP for Calwell, VIC
41.   Kevin Rudd, MP for Griffith, QLD
42.   Wayne Swan, MP for Lilley, QLD
43.   Gary Gray, MP for Brand, WA
44.   Melissa Parke, MP for Fremantle, WA
45.   Nick Champion, MP for Wakefield, SA
46.   Amanda Rishworth, MP for Kingston, SA
47.   Tony Zappia, MP for Makin, SA
48.   Gai Brodtmann, MP for Canberra, ACT


If anyone has corrections/changes to make to the count, I'd love to have them. I complied this list in just under an hour, so obviously it may have mistakes (as well as being devoid of local knowledge).

[Smid]

I think you can put Senator Conroy in the Shorten camp. He made comments in an interview a couple of weeks ago, I think I commented on them higher up the thread.

[Talleyrand]

I think you can put Senator Conroy in the Shorten camp. He made comments in an interview a couple of weeks ago, I think I commented on them higher up the thread.

Done! Another issue is what to do with MPs/Senators like Rudd, who won't announce their preference in public, but will almost certainly vote one way. Probably best to err on the side of caution.

[Smid]

I think you can put Senator Conroy in the Shorten camp. He made comments in an interview a couple of weeks ago, I think I commented on them higher up the thread.

Done! Another issue is what to do with MPs/Senators like Rudd, who won't announce their preference in public, but will almost certainly vote one way. Probably best to err on the side of caution.

Perhaps a "likely" column, or "unconfirmed" column?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've heard Shorten has a lead among the caucus, with about 15 genuinely undecided.

[RogueBeaver]

Remind me how the balloting works again?

[You kip if you want to...]

Remind me how the balloting works again?

Weighted vote of 40% for caucus, 40% for members, 20% for the unions.

[RogueBeaver]

So Albo's popular with members, Shorten with caucus. What about the unions?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's 50/50 - it doesn't follow the UK model.

[RogueBeaver]

It's 50/50 - it doesn't follow the UK model.

What's 50/50? Caucus/membership or union support for the candidates?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's 50/50 - it doesn't follow the UK model.

What's 50/50? Caucus/membership or union support for the candidates?

50% caucus - 50% membership

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Julia Gillard live interview now on ABC 24 - geo-block taken off.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Now this is the Julia Gillard I told everyone about - ugh - I despair for this country.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I would have MUCH preferred Kelly.

If he opposed SSM he would have had a better chance.

Oh sorry, I missed this... oh do be quiet. The degree to which is this NOT a deal-breaker cannot be overestimated. Please return to whatever hovel you reside in and await the rapture etc etc... you're getting really tiresome.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So... just some polling we've seen so far.

Morgan
LNP: 52.5%
ALP: 47.5%

Essential (23 Sept)
LNP: 51%
ALP: 49%

Preferred PM (Albanese)
Abbott: 37%
Albanese: 31%

Preferred PM (Shorten)
Abbott: 37%
Shorten: 32%

Essential (1 October)
LNP: 52%
ALP: 48%