Australia General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

Can't read the whole article, but Howes will argue for a rules change in favour of a binding SSM vote. In non-SSM news, Rinehart is withdrawing from the court dispute with her kids.

[RogueBeaver]

Howes on domestic policy, with super-infrastructure linkage as his big theme.

[Knives]

I'm just so angry.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8ZFyt7M7NUc

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So... rumbles I've heard is that Shorten has won the Caucus vote by 49-37 - so 57-43%, which is actually at the lower end of what I was expecting.

That means that Albanese would need to get somewhere around 59% of the membership vote to win. I believe Albo's grasp had slipped from about 60-63% to somewhere around 57-59%... I think this is going to be razor, razor thin. 

[Smid]

So... rumbles I've heard is that Shorten has won the Caucus vote by 49-37 - so 57-43%, which is actually at the lower end of what I was expecting.

That means that Albanese would need to get somewhere around 59% of the membership vote to win. I believe Albo's grasp had slipped from about 60-63% to somewhere around 57-59%... I think this is going to be razor, razor thin. 

Interesting. You tend to have good sources in the Caucus, so my assumption is it's accurate - how confident are you in your sources on this information?

[Hifly]

Are they the same sources who said Labor was going to have a net gain of seats in Queensland?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Are they the same sources who said Labor was going to have a net gain of seats in Queensland?

Considering my final prediction was that they'd lose seats in QLD... at a few points in time, they looked as if they would, not sure why you're being so snippy. Plus consider that in seats like Brisbane, the LNP performance exceeded their and ALP expectations and lots of variables, like assuming a stronger performance of the KAP in FNQ.

So... rumbles I've heard is that Shorten has won the Caucus vote by 49-37 - so 57-43%, which is actually at the lower end of what I was expecting.

That means that Albanese would need to get somewhere around 59% of the membership vote to win. I believe Albo's grasp had slipped from about 60-63% to somewhere around 57-59%... I think this is going to be razor, razor thin.  

Interesting. You tend to have good sources in the Caucus, so my assumption is it's accurate - how confident are you in your sources on this information?

I'm confident that they have a good finger on the pulse, they've also clued in me in a few important things over the years, which have proven accurate. So, while these aren't people in the room, so the numbers could be a touch rubbery, I'm very confident of the fact that Shorten has cleanly won the caucus vote and that Albo needs near 60% of rank and file to win.

This isn't hand over my first-born if I'm wrong stuff, this is politics, but I'm not far from it.

[Smid]

Are they the same sources who said Labor was going to have a net gain of seats in Queensland?

From Wikipedia, these are the relevant definitions:

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There is a fairly obvious difference between speculation about election results before a poll, and knowledge of the numbers of a leadership ballot that has already taken place.

Sources prior to the election may have been able to provide observations of the allocation of campaign resources, and Polnut may have made assumptions based on the analysis of that allocation, however I don't think anyone told him decisively that Labor would be gaining seats in Queensland. Predicted, perhaps, but not stated it to be actual.

[RogueBeaver]

Latham voted for Shorten but thinks Albo will win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My gut is that Shorten just falls over the line - I'd prefer Albanese, but I'm not sure how he gets 60% of the rank and file.

My gut reaction is 51-49 Shorten... but I certainly can see Albo winning, but he's going to have to exceed most people's expectations. I do worry head is overriding heart on this... lol

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Bill Shorten has won, 64% of caucus and just over 40% of membership, 52-48% win.

So my numbers were a touch rubbery... but there were a lot of people double-dealing apparently.

[RogueBeaver]

Fantastic.

[Talleyrand]

Congrats Tony.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Congrats Tony.

That attitude is how we are guaranteed to lose in 2016.

My preference was for Albanese and I think Shorten is a risk, but ... I started to waver when I was about to fill out my ballot - Shorten genuinely impressed me over the last 2 weeks and frankly Albanese was disappointing me in that he was talking about strategy, which is fine, but barely touching policy.

The job now is to grow up, accept the result and work like buggery to bring the creep and his c-grade team down.

[Talleyrand]

Congrats Tony.

That attitude is how we are guaranteed to lose in 2016.

My preference was for Albanese and I think Shorten is a risk, but ... I started to waver when I was about to fill out my ballot - Shorten genuinely impressed me over the last 2 weeks and frankly Albanese was disappointing me in that he was talking about strategy, which is fine, but barely touching policy.

The job now is to grow up, accept the result and work like buggery to bring the creep and his c-grade team down.

The bigger worry I have is not the fact that Shorten's now leader, but how he ascended to the position in some sort of factional stoush... That said, you're right that the party needs to unite behind him to give the strongest performance against Abbott in 2016.

Also, here is my final guess for how the caucus vote went down (with 100% margin of error). Feel free to make corrections/suggested changes.

Shorten (55)

1.   Bill Shorten, MP for Maribyrnong, VIC
2.   Bob Carr, Senator NSW
3.   Sam Dastyari, Senator for NSW
4.   Ursula Stephens, Senator NSW
5.   Jacinta Collins, Senator VIC
6.   Stephen Conroy, Senator VIC
7.   Mehmet Tillem, Senator VIC
8.   Glenn Sterle, Senator for WA
9.   Mark Bishop, Senator WA
10.   Don Farrell, Senator for SA
11.   Alex Gallacher, Senator SA
12.   Catryna Bilyk, Senator for TAS
13.   Helen Polley, Senator for TAS
14.   Mark Furner, Senator QLD
15.   John Hogg, Senator QLD
16.   Joe Ludwig, Senator QLD
17.   Kate Lundy, Senator ACT
18.   Nova Peris, Senator NT
19.   Laurie Ferguson, MP for Werriwa, NSW
20.   Sharon Bird, MP for Cunningham, NSW
21.   Chris Bowen, MP for McMahon, NSW
22.   Tony Burke, MP for Watson, NSW
23.   Jason Clare, MP for Blaxland, NSW
24.   Joel Fitzgibbon, MP for Hunter, NSW
25.   Chris Hayes, MP for Fowler, NSW
26.   Julie Owens, MP for Parramatta, NSW
27.   Michelle Rowland, MP for Greenway, NSW
28.   Matt Thistlethwaite, MP for Kingsford Smith, NSW
29.   Ed Husic, MP for Chifley, NSW
30.   Anthony Byrne, MP for Holt, VIC
31.   Mark Dreyfus, MP for Isaacs, VIC
32.   David Feeney, MP for Batman, VIC
33.   Richard Marles, MP for Corio, VIC
34.   Rob Mitchell, MP for McEwen, VIC
35.   Anna Burke, MP for Chisholm, VIC
36.   Lisa Chesters, MP for Bendigo, VIC
37.   Michael Danby, MP for Melbourne Ports, VIC
38.   Jim Chalmers, MP for Rankin, QLD
39.   Shayne Neumann, MP for Blair, QLD
40.   Bernie Ripoll, MP for Oxley, QLD
41.   Kate Ellis, MP for Adelaide, SA
42.   Warren Snowdon, MP for Lingiari, NT
43.   Andrew Giles, MP for Scullin, VIC
44.   Brendan O’Connor, MP for Gorton, VIC
45.   Clare O’Neil, MP for Hotham, VIC
46.   Alan Griffin, MP for Bruce, VIC
47.   Joanne Ryan, MP for Lalor, VIC
48.   Kelvin Thompson, MP for Wills, VIC
49.   Maria Vamvakinou, MP for Calwell, VIC
50.   Tim Watts, MP for Gellibrand, VIC
51.   Wayne Swan, MP for Lilley, QLD
52.   Gary Gray, MP for Brand, WA
53.   Nick Champion, MP for Wakefield, SA
54.   Amanda Rishworth, MP for Kingston, SA
55.   Gai Brodtmann, MP for Canberra, ACT



Albanese (31)

1.   Anthony Albanese, MP for Grayndler, NSW
2.   Doug Cameron, Senator for NSW
3.   John Faulkner, Senator NSW
4.   Kim Carr, Senator VIC
5.   Gavin Marshall, Senator VIC
6.   Louise Pratt, Senator for WA
7.   Sue Lines, Senator WA
8.   Penny Wong, Senator for SA
9.   Anne McEwen, Senator SA
10.   Carol Brown, Senator for TAS
11.   Lisa Singh, Senator TAS
12.   Lin Thorp, Senator TAS
13.   Anne Urquhart, Senator TAS
14.   Jan McLucas, Senator QLD
15.   Claire Moore, Senator QLD
16.   Sharon Claydon, MP for Newcastle, NSW
17.   Pat Conroy, MP for Charlton, NSW
18.   Jill Hall, MP for Shortland, NSW
19.   Tanya Plibersek, MP for Sydney, NSW
20.   Justine Elliot, MP for Richmond, NSW
21.   Stephen Jones, MP for Throsby, NSW
22.   Jenny Macklin, MP for Jagajaga, VIC
23.   Catherine King, MP for Ballarat, VIC
24.   Graham Perrett, MP for Moreton, QLD
25.   Kevin Rudd, MP for Griffith, QLD
26.   Alannah MacTiernan, MP for Perth, WA
27.   Melissa Parke, MP for Fremantle, WA
28.   Mark Butler, MP for Port Adelaide, SA
29.   Julie Collins, MP for Franklin, TAS
30.   Andrew Leigh, MP for Fraser, ACT
31.   Tony Zappia, MP for Makin, SA

[Hifly]

Very happy at the result. Not quite so happy that it looks as if Tanya Plibersek will be deputy leader.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

While you cannot avoid factional goings on, it's believed that the reason why Shorten did so well in caucus was down to the Victorian left shifting from Albanese.

For me, the silver lining in Plibersek as deputy

[Hifly]

btw Polnut I think it's time to dump your sources; they are either bad or simply lying to you.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Not really - the media reported that a lot of people were giving assurances to both sides, which explains what I said at the time were rubbery (but indicative) figures. According to media here, Albanese thought he was going to win - which means he also thought the caucus numbers were along the same lines.

These are the same sources who told me the exact margin of the Feb 2012 challenge, who told me the Rudd did not have the numbers to challenge Gillard in March when people like Richardson said he would and would win. Also, up until the last 2.5 weeks it looked like the ALP would have a net gain of seats in QLD... so I know it gives you some perverse thrill to try to undermine a progressive ...I'll keep them on thanks very much.

[Talleyrand]

The Victorian Left switched to Shorten? Does that include people like Senator Carr?

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of Sen. Carr... though this was a 1-cycle story at the time.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Fantastic.

Was trying to post about Shorten becoming Labor leader last night, but the forum wasn't working for me :S

I was expecting an Albanese victory though, considering his support amongst the Labor grassroots.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Fantastic.

Was trying to post about Shorten becoming Labor leader last night, but the forum wasn't working for me :S

I was expecting an Albanese victory though, considering his support amongst the Labor grassroots.

I think the interesting story is that Shorten did much better across both elements than expected. It's clear that a number of people that Albanese thought were in his corner backed Shorten in the end. Plus, Albanese's support among the grass roots was weaker than it was when the race started. Albo probably had close to 65% support, and Shorten did chip away through pretty strong and policy-focused debate and public performances.

When I was talking to other party members, I was interested by a number of natural Shorten supporters leaning Albo, but more interesting (and perhaps more surprising) were the people who I saw as natural Albo backers moving towards Shorten, when asked why they said "I love Albo, but all he's talking about is strategy... Shorten is presenting alternative ideas" When I saw these people, I moved from being sure Albo could overcome the caucus, to being sure Shorten would win in a squeaker.

[RogueBeaver]

Frontbench is set.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Frontbench is set.

One downside of the return to the elected front-bench, is that people like Conroy etc can elbow out up and coming talent, when this is the IDEAL time to build them up.