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Author Topic: Australia General Discussion  (Read 249684 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1050 on: October 13, 2013, 08:52:25 PM »
« edited: October 13, 2013, 08:53:59 PM by Fmr. President & Senator Polnut »

Plibersek elected deputy leader as expected and Wong re-elected Senate leader.
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Hifly
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« Reply #1051 on: October 14, 2013, 01:51:04 AM »

I'm surprised that Don Farrell got a ministry position even though he is due to leave the senate in just a few months; I assume next summer he'll be replaced by someone like Chris Ketter or Joe Bullock.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1052 on: October 14, 2013, 09:09:09 AM »

Here's the full list

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At this point, it's probably time for people like Conroy and Farrell to step aside, but what up-and-comers do the forum ALPers think missed out on the Ministry?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1053 on: October 14, 2013, 05:22:09 PM »

The biggest joke, by FAR is Farrell... he'll be out of the Senate in July.

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1054 on: October 14, 2013, 06:57:17 PM »

For some reason Chris Kenny thinks Labor will roll over on the carbon tax... not that it matters because Abbott will have the numbers next year anyways.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1055 on: October 14, 2013, 08:11:53 PM »


Lol... are you seeing the deal Palmer wants Abbott to make over it? Don't count chickens.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1056 on: October 14, 2013, 08:21:16 PM »


Do tell about the deal. Given how egomaniacal Palmer is, who knows what his conditions might be next year. At any rate I'd collect the DD triggers as a backup plan.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1057 on: October 15, 2013, 04:46:59 PM »

Tell us how you really feel, Mrs McKew: she calls Rudd's policies "idiotic" with a "perverse and cruel" immigration policy that she "couldn't stomach", and he was "off his game" in the campaign.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1058 on: October 15, 2013, 06:23:25 PM »

More McKew.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1059 on: October 15, 2013, 06:39:15 PM »


There's a lot of this I agree with - the populism on foreign investment was waffle, and a lot of it and don't get me started on the Northern Australia zone... they were rightly called thought bubbles.

Now, in hindsight... well not quite hindsight, but nearly, it was clear picking Beattie was a BAD move. Initially, the reports from both ALP and LNP were that the ALP would win Forde... but the issue was they were already in a position to win it BEFORE Beattie was picked and it took a fortnight, maybe a bit less, for irritation to filter through the electorate and to have a lot of the worst elements of Labor and Rudd come to the fore.

Bot overall, she was right ... for someone who had 3 years to figure out a strategy of what to do ... he certainly seemed perpetually lost, in search of a narrative.
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morgieb
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« Reply #1060 on: October 16, 2013, 01:39:31 AM »

LNP trying to privatise HECS.

WTF?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1061 on: October 16, 2013, 02:12:58 AM »

Selling off the debt ... It's a bad idea. It's a cheap move, simply taking the debts off the ledger.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1062 on: October 16, 2013, 04:29:09 AM »

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-16/nicola-roxon-kevin-rudd-bastard-james-button-memorial-lecture/5027030

Roxon tears Rudd a new one...
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #1063 on: October 17, 2013, 06:53:55 PM »

Miranda state by-election in NSW tomorrow... who do you think will win?

I think the Liberals will hold, although there will be a large swing, given that Barry Collier is running for Labor again.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1064 on: October 17, 2013, 06:58:47 PM »

Miranda state by-election in NSW tomorrow... who do you think will win?

I think the Liberals will hold, although there will be a large swing, given that Barry Collier is running for Labor again.

Libs will hold, the margin is too large, massively over-inflated of course, but still too large.

There was a leaked internal poll suggesting the ALP ahead 54-46... but it's internal polling and the Libs are CLEARLY trying to play the expectations game... I think Libs win by the reverse of that poll 54-46...
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morgieb
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1065 on: October 17, 2013, 07:14:21 PM »

I'll say Liberals 57/43. It's surprising Collier held on to the district for so long, so I can't see him returning while O'Farrell's still reasonably popular.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1066 on: October 17, 2013, 10:03:05 PM »

Miranda state by-election in NSW tomorrow... who do you think will win?

I think the Liberals will hold, although there will be a large swing, given that Barry Collier is running for Labor again.

Libs will hold, the margin is too large, massively over-inflated of course, but still too large.

There was a leaked internal poll suggesting the ALP ahead 54-46... but it's internal polling and the Libs are CLEARLY trying to play the expectations game... I think Libs win by the reverse of that poll 54-46...

Not going to try to guess who will win, but the margin is less than the swing at the last election (ie, the seat changed hands at the last election)...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1067 on: October 17, 2013, 11:44:45 PM »

Isn't Miranda a 21% Lib margin?
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1068 on: October 17, 2013, 11:51:26 PM »


Something like that. Just looked up my figures for 2007, and I may have entered them incorrectly in my spreadsheet, but looks like it was 50.76% Labor.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1069 on: October 18, 2013, 12:03:24 AM »


Something like that. Just looked up my figures for 2007, and I may have entered them incorrectly in my spreadsheet, but looks like it was 50.76% Labor.

Yeah, it was 0.8% Labor before 2011, with a near 22% swing.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1070 on: October 19, 2013, 03:35:21 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2013, 04:04:40 AM by Fmr. President & Senator Polnut »

So far the swing in Miranda is HUGE (somewhere around 27% 2PP)... but it must be said, that the booths are for naturally ALP leaning areas around Miranda, Kirrawee and Sutherland.

But Collier is just shy of 50% on first preferences.

NOPE: It's sitting at just over 28%... but expected to settle at 27%... this must be some kind of record against a) a first-term Government b) swinging 21% in 2011 then swinging back 27%,...
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Hifly
hifly15
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« Reply #1071 on: October 19, 2013, 04:23:16 AM »

So the polls were right! I think I like Barry Collier.
Bob Carr is resigning on Monday apparently.
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #1072 on: October 19, 2013, 05:02:50 AM »

Whoa! I know Barry Collier was (and will be again, by the looks of things), a popular member, but the swing in Miranda tonight was massive!

May this be a lesson to politicians of all colours who want to pull a "Screw you guys, I'm going home!", to quote Eric Cartman from TV's South Park, on their constituents.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1073 on: October 19, 2013, 05:30:19 AM »

In my mind, this is a combination of a) a massively disproportionate swing in 2011 b) a sense that O’Farrell, while not having done much bad… hasn’t really don’t much at all c) the anti-ALP venom has now largely been purged d) a fairly well-known former member being in the mix e)... the member bailing on the electorate... oh and an increasingly hated Liberal Council... so yeah, perfect storm really.
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Hifly
hifly15
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« Reply #1074 on: October 19, 2013, 05:39:20 AM »

I think points D, E and the Lib Council are most important in this case- didn't the same poll that foresaw this result also show O'Farrell and his govt. with a massive approval rate and strong lead over Robertson?
I also think that the result of this by-election has virtually killed the opportunity to remove & replace Robertson.
Polnut, what's your opinion of the opposition leader?
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