Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Non-entity...

[morgieb]

Wow. Just wow.

Labor to somehow win?

(In all honesty they won't do better than 30-40 seats....but at the very least they'll make up some ground, which I feared wouldn't be significant for a while there)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's like Al said during the federal election - look at the swing patterns from the last election, then figure out the natural equilibrium - that seat was NEVER a Lib +21 seat, it's also not a +10 ALP seat - the swing not only re-established the natural equilibrium but also with the added elements of a by-election with a popular former member adding premiums.

The ALP cannot win the 2015 election - but the swings back across Sydney will be large, only because the swings in 2011 were hysterically large.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

It's like Al said during the federal election - look at the swing patterns from the last election, then figure out the natural equilibrium - that seat was NEVER a Lib +21 seat, it's also not a +10 ALP seat - the swing not only re-established the natural equilibrium but also with the added elements of a by-election with a popular former member adding premiums.

The ALP cannot win the 2015 election - but the swings back across Sydney will be large, only because the swings in 2011 were hysterically large.

Do you think Miranda will stay red in 2015, now that Collier has won it back? It was a LIB +6.78 seat at the last election, and was Liberal in '84 and '95.

[Hifly]

When's the next NSW state Newspoll coming out? We can get a clearer picture then. It won't surprise me if Collier retires again.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

When's the next NSW state Newspoll coming out? We can get a clearer picture then. It won't surprise me if Collier retires again.

The last NSW Newspoll was for the period covering April-June 2013, they may have skipped the July-September 2013 poll because of the federal election, so we may have to wait for the October-December poll to come out.

[Talleyrand]

Does anyone know how the areas Miranda covers voted in the federal election last month? I know it's in the safe seat of Cook, which gave 66.5% of its TCP to now-Immigration Minister Scott Morrison, so I'm assuming that they went solidly Liberal. This seems like it could be a reverse version of the 2010 Penrith/Lindsay situation, although I'm not sure how the areas making up Penrith voted in the general election that year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's the less Liberal half of Cook, but is still solidly Liberal (would last have been certainly been Labor in 1983, may have done so - just about - in 1993. After that, non). I think we have to see this as a classic perfect storm mid-term by-election freak result, but also that the fact that such a result is possible is extremely significant.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's like Al said during the federal election - look at the swing patterns from the last election, then figure out the natural equilibrium - that seat was NEVER a Lib +21 seat, it's also not a +10 ALP seat - the swing not only re-established the natural equilibrium but also with the added elements of a by-election with a popular former member adding premiums.

The ALP cannot win the 2015 election - but the swings back across Sydney will be large, only because the swings in 2011 were hysterically large.

Do you think Miranda will stay red in 2015, now that Collier has won it back? It was a LIB +6.78 seat at the last election, and was Liberal in '84 and '95.

Honestly? Yes.

[Hifly]

It's like Al said during the federal election - look at the swing patterns from the last election, then figure out the natural equilibrium - that seat was NEVER a Lib +21 seat, it's also not a +10 ALP seat - the swing not only re-established the natural equilibrium but also with the added elements of a by-election with a popular former member adding premiums.

The ALP cannot win the 2015 election - but the swings back across Sydney will be large, only because the swings in 2011 were hysterically large.

Do you think Miranda will stay red in 2015, now that Collier has won it back? It was a LIB +6.78 seat at the last election, and was Liberal in '84 and '95.

Honestly? Yes.

Even taking into account the boundary changes??

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's like Al said during the federal election - look at the swing patterns from the last election, then figure out the natural equilibrium - that seat was NEVER a Lib +21 seat, it's also not a +10 ALP seat - the swing not only re-established the natural equilibrium but also with the added elements of a by-election with a popular former member adding premiums.

The ALP cannot win the 2015 election - but the swings back across Sydney will be large, only because the swings in 2011 were hysterically large.

Do you think Miranda will stay red in 2015, now that Collier has won it back? It was a LIB +6.78 seat at the last election, and was Liberal in '84 and '95.

Honestly? Yes.

Even taking into account the boundary changes??

It won't be easy and I hate prognosticating 18 months out ... but my view, all things being equal is that the ALP will hold it. 

[Frodo]

Alexander Downer has just been unanimously elected as head of the South Australian Liberal Party.

How much of a difference does this make in how or whether the Liberals will take over the South Australian parliament next March? 

[Talleyrand]

Alexander Downer has just been unanimously elected as head of the South Australian Liberal Party.

How much of a difference does this make in how or whether the Liberals will take over the South Australian parliament next March? 

Most voters won't know or care who the Head of their state Liberal Party is, so it won't make any difference.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Alexander Downer has just been unanimously elected as head of the South Australian Liberal Party.

How much of a difference does this make in how or whether the Liberals will take over the South Australian parliament next March? 

No more, no less.

[Platypus]

It's been fairly quiet, but the ACT has passed a law that will allow for same sex marriage, although it first must survive a Commonwealth government challenge to the law's legitimacy:

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/love-is-in-the-air-and-the-capital-is-open-for-business-20131022-2vzlo.html

[RogueBeaver]

Tony Eggleton profile.

[Talleyrand]

Tasmanian ALP MHA calls for Premier Lara Giddings to be replaced by Economic Development Minister David O'Byrne before next year's election. The Premier, O'Byrne, and the ALP's coalition partners, the Greens, have dismissed these concerns in public.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That election will not be pleasant.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's going to be uuuuuugly

[Hifly]

It's a shame Tasmania doesn't use FPTP or the election would be even more exciting to watch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Tasmania used FPTP the coming Liberal landslide wouldn't be happening because Labor would not be in bed with the hated Greens.

[Smid]

First Newspoll released since the election.

Primary Vote (bracketted number represents election result):

Coalition 47% (45.6%)
Labor      31% (33.3%)
Greens    10% (8.7%)
Others     12% (12.4%)

Two Party Preferred:
Coalition 56% (53.5%) vs Labor 44% (46.5%)



In other news, Tasmanian Labor is contemplating dumping the Greens Ministers once the Parliament goes into recess, as they won't be sitting again prior to the writs being issued for the election, but other members of caucus are apparently warning that it may be viewed by voters as a cynical attempt to swing votes, or as an addmission of the coalition agreement being a mistake.



Also, Australian soldiers are leaving Afghanistan. The Prime Minister took the Opposition Leader with him when he went to address troops, which is the first time both a PM and Opposition Leader have been on the same trip to Afghanistan.

[RogueBeaver]

Totally desperate re Tas. Wonder when the ALP will learn to stay away from the Greens, since they won't prop up the Coalition anyways.

[Talleyrand]

I don't know the dynamics of the five Tasmanian electorates well at all, but would it be correct to say that the anti-Green sentiment is far higher in the three northern divisions (Bass, Braddon, and Lyons) than Franklin or Denison? If so, what might be the reason for that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The specific issue at the moment is that forestry peace deal nonsense. It's the north of the state that is most dependent on the timber industry.