Australia General Discussion

[morgieb]

55-45 ALP. This is in the bag.

[Hifly]

D'ath voted one way in 2012 as did all QLD MPs ... not her personal views

Where on earth do you get your information from?!? I've asked you this before as you really do come up with pretty outlandish statements. Firstly, not all 8 QLD Labor MPs in the last parliament voted against gay marriage (because it was a conscience vote) and another two came out personally in favour just before the election. However, D'Ath has never personally expressed support for gay marriage.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

D'ath voted one way in 2012 as did all QLD MPs ... not her personal views

Where on earth do you get your information from?!? I've asked you this before as you really do come up with pretty outlandish statements. Firstly, not all 8 QLD Labor MPs in the last parliament voted against gay marriage (because it was a conscience vote) and another two came out personally in favour just before the election. However, D'Ath has never personally expressed support for gay marriage.

'Outlandish' perhaps a bit outlandish from your perspective to make calls on people who are  actually here.

On this topic, D'ath never said it was her opinion, she was reflecting electorate's input - check the record.

I'd love to know the backstory on this whole issue... I truly would.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So some more polling and some ... interesting results

Morgan

Primary
LNP: 41% (+0.5)
ALP: 35.5% (-1.5)
GRN: 10.5% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 50.5%
LNP: 49.5%

It should be noted that half of the Morgan sample came from the weekend before last.

Now, here is where it gets interesting... Newspoll, which was taken this weekend.

Primary
LNP: 39% (-2)
ALP: 39% (+4)
GRN: 10% (-2)

TPP
ALP: 54% (+3)
LNP: 46% (-3)

Approval
Abbott: 36% (-4)
Shorten: 35% (NC)

Disapproval
Abbott: 52% (+7)
Shorten: 39% (+4)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 38% (-3)
Shorten: 37% (+4)

This could be a rouge sample... although, I'd have expected Shorten's ratings to have spiked if it was a strong ALP-bias in it. I think the timing of this one is interesting, unlike Morgan, the Newspoll was from last weekend, the Budget rumours are spooking people something severe, changes to Medicare, the Aged-Pension... and honestly, I do think the death of the asylum-seeker on Manus has done some damage too. While we might be accused (sometimes rightly) of being xenophobic, the fact that someone was beaten to death in our care...

But long story short, this Government won last September in a near-landslide... and this is the position they're in. I wonder how strong the stomach will be to make the ugly choices in the Budget they seem determined to make.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

WA is going back to the polls on the 5th of April for the half-Senate election.

Hard to tell, although barring another "preference lottery", as some would call it, I except the traditional 3-3 left/right balance as the result. Might update my prediction with more detail closer to the date.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nielsen polling out with some expected and outright whacky results.

State Governments

VIC - ALP 53-47, this is pretty much where most people think this race is.

But ... NSW - ALP 51-49, that's a massive and inexplicable swing to the ALP. While I don't buy that the O'Farrell Government is in THAT much trouble, I do wonder what kind of impact Abbott et al is having on these state level numbers.

Considering the SA/TAS dynamics, they're not the best indicators at the moment.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Nielsen polling out with some expected and outright whacky results.

State Governments

VIC - ALP 53-47, this is pretty much where most people think this race is.

But ... NSW - ALP 51-49, that's a massive and inexplicable swing to the ALP. While I don't buy that the O'Farrell Government is in THAT much trouble, I do wonder what kind of impact Abbott et al is having on these state level numbers.

Considering the SA/TAS dynamics, they're not the best indicators at the moment.

I don't think the O'Farrell government has done anything controversial lately, but then again, given the corruption enquiries into 3 of the Central Coast state members...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nielsen polling out with some expected and outright whacky results.

State Governments

VIC - ALP 53-47, this is pretty much where most people think this race is.

But ... NSW - ALP 51-49, that's a massive and inexplicable swing to the ALP. While I don't buy that the O'Farrell Government is in THAT much trouble, I do wonder what kind of impact Abbott et al is having on these state level numbers.

Considering the SA/TAS dynamics, they're not the best indicators at the moment.

I don't think the O'Farrell government has done anything controversial lately, but then again, given the corruption enquiries into 3 of the Central Coast state members...

That's the thing, even taking my partisan hat off... I can't really point to anything the O'Farrell Government has actually done? They've been the ultimate small-target Government, they sacked a lot of people, found a billion dollars.... what else?

[You kip if you want to...]

Nielsen polling out with some expected and outright whacky results.

State Governments

VIC - ALP 53-47, this is pretty much where most people think this race is.

But ... NSW - ALP 51-49, that's a massive and inexplicable swing to the ALP. While I don't buy that the O'Farrell Government is in THAT much trouble, I do wonder what kind of impact Abbott et al is having on these state level numbers.

Considering the SA/TAS dynamics, they're not the best indicators at the moment.

I don't think the O'Farrell government has done anything controversial lately, but then again, given the corruption enquiries into 3 of the Central Coast state members...

That's the thing, even taking my partisan hat off... I can't really point to anything the O'Farrell Government has actually done? They've been the ultimate small-target Government, they sacked a lot of people, found a billion dollars.... what else?

Exactly though. After the walking disaster that was the last few years of NSW Labour, why would voters already be ready to give them another chance? Surely a first time O'Farrell government's task is to just hold themselves together and make themselves look even half competent compared to the last government.

[morgieb]

Yeah am not buying it. Pretty sure they're ed in Victoria though.

[morgieb]

I suppose ICAC and drinking laws wouldn't help, but a 28 point swing? Really?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol

[MaxQue]

I suppose ICAC and drinking laws wouldn't help, but a 28 point swing? Really?

I have seen a swing of that mangnitude in Quebec, but, it's Quebec. It shouldn't be used to forecast or explain or compare to anywhere else.

Still, I think it's may be a sign than 10 years + governments aren't happening anymore in Australia.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Has to be remembered also that Labor is the natural party of government in NSW for reasons other than tradition...

[morgieb]

Well Newspoll says 58/42 Liberal, so it looks like that Nielsen poll was an outlier.

[Platypus]

I can't believe Daniel Andrews is going to be the Victorian Premier. Ugh.

The Libs don't deserve to be re-elected, but neither does Labor, especially under Andrews. I don't know how I plan to vote yet, I think it comes down to the Liberals to be honest. If they get their sh**t together, they get my vote. Not holding my breath for that to happen, though, if the Metro Rail project and the Hazelwood response is any indication.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well Newspoll says 58/42 Liberal, so it looks like that Nielsen poll was an outlier.

Well, the Newspoll was taken over two months... so I think they're both wrong

[Knives]

I can't believe Daniel Andrews is going to be the Victorian Premier. Ugh.

The Libs don't deserve to be re-elected, but neither does Labor, especially under Andrews. I don't know how I plan to vote yet, I think it comes down to the Liberals to be honest. If they get their sh**t together, they get my vote. Not holding my breath for that to happen, though, if the Metro Rail project and the Hazelwood response is any indication.

Really? What's he done that's been so horrible? I actually like the sound of some of the ideas he's proposing.

[Platypus]

The way he's politicised the Morwell situation is a recent issue, but in short, he's an ideological hack.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Just got this in my letterbox from the Palmer United Party:



I got a similar DVD in the mail last year for the general election too. Haven't watched this one yet, but I did watch last year's DVD.

[Smid]

Last year, I met my local Palmer candidate at the railway station and told him how disappointed I was that I hadn't received the DVD and he promised to try to get me one. He failed to deliver. If you're not going to keep it, I think the National Library has a collection of election-related materials.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Last year, I met my local Palmer candidate at the railway station and told him how disappointed I was that I hadn't received the DVD and he promised to try to get me one. He failed to deliver. If you're not going to keep it, I think the National Library has a collection of election-related materials.

I didn't get one either! Granted, considering this was the result at my local booth...

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Last year, I met my local Palmer candidate at the railway station and told him how disappointed I was that I hadn't received the DVD and he promised to try to get me one. He failed to deliver. If you're not going to keep it, I think the National Library has a collection of election-related materials.

I didn't get one either! Granted, considering this was the result at my local booth...

At least PUP beat the crazies (Rise Up) at your booth Polnut!

[Mordecai]

I remember getting one in the mail last year but I threw it away. If I get another I'll probably keep it just for a souvenir.

[RogueBeaver]

Howes quits AWU and the ALP executive. Admittedly I haven't been following for 6 months, but is there some sort of backstory here?