Australia General Discussion

[Hifly]

Labor may have effectively already lost Macedon by parachuting in an outsider left wing candidate who doesn't have any support in the local branches (90% of local members signed a petition against her and sent it off to the admin. committee) and they're refusing to campaign for her.

The issue isn't than the candidate is left-wing. It's than the left and right factions divide the seats between them and the candidate than the local branch selected belongs is opposed to factions. So, both factions opposed it. It's more a pro-factions/pro-members fight.

Christian Zahra (who has 90% support in local branches) is a right faction member. The seat is assigned to the left faction, which meant the admin committee imposed a left wing candidate on the locals who has no support, and they've made a massive public fuss over it. Thomas is the woman to lose the seat.

[MaxQue]

Labor may have effectively already lost Macedon by parachuting in an outsider left wing candidate who doesn't have any support in the local branches (90% of local members signed a petition against her and sent it off to the admin. committee) and they're refusing to campaign for her.

The issue isn't than the candidate is left-wing. It's than the left and right factions divide the seats between them and the candidate than the local branch selected belongs is opposed to factions. So, both factions opposed it. It's more a pro-factions/pro-members fight.

Christian Zahra (who has 90% support in local branches) is a right faction member. The seat is assigned to the left faction, which meant the admin committee imposed a left wing candidate on the locals who has no support, and they've made a massive public fuss over it. Thomas is the woman to lose the seat.

I'm aware, but the right-wing faction leaders aren't supporting Zahra either (it would endanger the division pact and I don't think they want someone they can't control as MLA. Even if he is a member of the right faction, his willingness to challenge the decisions of the factions is making him much less interesting for the right faction. Both factions want easily controllable members and Zahra isn't).

The initial issue was left vs. right, but it's not anymore. It's central factions vs. local branches, now. But we agree than this will do a great disservice to Thomas, sure. And, honestly, it's a good thing. Errors like that are the only way to erode the power of the factions.

[Hifly]

Labor has another big problem which is that the redistribution has been incredibly unfavourable to them. A total of 5 current Labor seats have been made notionally Liberal for this election, making their job even harder.

[RogueBeaver]

Neville Wran has died at 87 after a long illness. RIP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It won't be easy ...

[Smid]

I can't say much about Victorian politics, those who know me know my reasons. 

Won't say much about Labor's candidate in Macedon, but there is an excellent Liberal candidate there.

Redistribution isn't as cut and dried as Hifly suggests. Benefits the government in some areas and the opposition in others. Overall, reasonably balanced.

I could elaborate further but not in writing and not on a public forum.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well... it appears the Government's 'Direct Action' climate policy is in deep, deep trouble. Palmer is making it clear that his Senators will not vote for the policy (which might be one of the few things I agree with Palmer on... it's a RIDICULOUS policy), the Greens and the ALP will not support it... so, the Coalition are in a tough spot on this.

If they're seen to walk away from the issue by trying to get enough of the cross-benchers to get rid of the Carbon Price, but not replace it with anything... it will be a terrible political look. One of the things that is interesting about climate change policy, people might not like to have to put out themselves to deal with it (because they're ... well, yeah) but they really don't like nothing being done about it. Plus it will be seen as pretty big defeat.

Hunt and Abbott better start working on alternatives, put a real plan on the table and try to work with the Opposition ... PUP is going to be a disaster on this area among others.

[Platypus]

While there's more to this than meets the eye, what meets the eye is pretty damn awful:

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

They're just... awful

[RogueBeaver]

Abbott joins the Lizard club.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Abbott joins the Lizard club.

He was very handsy with the Duchess at Manly... I'm pretty sure she shot him a look of "thanks, it's pretty obvious that I'm meant to be heading down the stairs everyone else has walked down"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One of the new Government's measures to return the Budget to surplus... a deficit 'levy' ie a 4 year 1% tax increase on those earning $80k and 2% for those on $180k+... although in the Australian context, $80k isn't exactly considered high-income.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/deficit-tax-to-cost-earners-on-80000-an-extra-800-a-year-reports-20140428-zr0zk.html

Can you imagine the squealing that would have come from this lot when they were in opposition to a tax-increase to pay down the deficit? Also a bit rich considering the rubbery figures the Govt is using as well as their increasing the deficit over the forward estimates by $68 billion.

[RogueBeaver]

Somehow I'm neither surprised nor happy.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At least they aren't proposing to solve the deficit with a tax cut as some here would do.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At least they aren't proposing to solve the deficit with a tax cut as some here would do.

Granted, but it's taken until like... the last few weeks for the Government to acknowledge that there is as big an issue with revenue (if not a bigger one) than spending. Because they've been outright lying about the nature of our public spending... saying it's exploding, when its not - saying our pension system is unsustainable, when studies show it to be the most stable and sustainable in the world... the issue is revenue.

But as Joe Hockey (ie about beat John Howard as the worst Treasurer we've ever had) continues to ignore - had revenues from 2006-7 been maintained, we'd have a Budget surplus. But the combination of the GFC (which conservatives all of the world seem to forget ever happened), the increased value over than time of the Australian dollar and the instability of our trading partners... Government revenues have dropped.

Bottom-line, there is no Budget emergency we could make fewer drastic changes, keep the cuts the former Government put in place, and they could claim credit for a track to surplus and start paying down the debt in 4-6 years.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This coming week is shaping up to be among the worst for this Government so far... stay tuned.

[Talleyrand]

ReachTel has Labor on 54% of the TPP, with a 40% primary vote to 39% for the Coalition (the lowest its been in several years, I presume?).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Morgan is out with a 55-45... and Newspoll tonight. Considering how bizarre NP can be - I expect a tie

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Too tired to do everything - Newspoll has it 53-47 ALP with the Coalition primary crashing by 5% and Abbott's lead over Shorten now within the MoE (2%) and Abbott's satisfaction rating the worst since he became PM net -20.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Former treasurer Costello on the deficit tax - I agree with him - it's a stupid idea.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My basic question on the deficit tax... since the Government says as it's temporary, it's not really a tax, that they're going to take back everything that was said about the carbon price.

The Government has done was pretty much every first-term government has done - misread their 'mandate' and overreached. I get it "we won, that means we can do what we want!!" ... but unless you start asking yourselves WHY you won, then you're likely to fall flat on your face. The Government is in a really terrible spot, you do it and get killed, you don't and you get accused of being afraid and not serious in your proclamations.

The clear fact that the Government has only led in 10% of published polls since the election and that Abbott got no honeymoon at all, none tells me told me that the 2013 electorate wanted rid of the ALP and their inability to behave like grown ups - not that this was an endorsement of the Liberal policy agenda.

Howard was lucky to survive 2008 and used every trick in the book and huge amounts of cash to hold on in 2001 and 2004... and some external good luck.

I said to an LNP friend last night - this feels very much like 2011, a prime minister people were wary of, but gave a chance to despite misgivings - then pulls a stunt that re enforces people's fundamental concerns. This is about trust... the problem is, once people have turned off you, it's really hard to get them back.

Abbott hasn't got the political skill, political capital or cash to throw around. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is their a chance Malcolm Turnbull could be leading the Liberals into the next election? Especially if Abbott can't force through the Carbon Tax repeal in the new parliament.

It seems that for a third time consecutively in Australia a Prime Minister will be traumatically damaged over a botched tax introduction.

[morgieb]

Is their a chance Malcolm Turnbull could be leading the Liberals into the next election? Especially if Abbott can't force through the Carbon Tax repeal in the new parliament.

It seems that for a third time consecutively in Australia a Prime Minister will be traumatically damaged over a botched tax introduction.

It's possible, but I doubt the right will be so willing to go along with Turnbull. Think Abbott is in huge trouble though.

[Mordecai]

Is their a chance Malcolm Turnbull could be leading the Liberals into the next election? Especially if Abbott can't force through the Carbon Tax repeal in the new parliament.

It seems that for a third time consecutively in Australia a Prime Minister will be traumatically damaged over a botched tax introduction.

I'm salivating at the thought but I don't think so. It would invite some really unflattering comparisons to Rudd-Gillard and probably damage their credibility more than if they just stuck by Abbott.

[Knives]

 I HATE Dennis Napthine.