Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

When virtually the only group happy is the Business Council and the Chamber of Commerce (despite the possible economic shocks for their members by the policies being pursued) ... it tells you a lot. Pissing everybody off is bot a sign of a job well done,  it's a sign you've pissed everyone off.

[Mordecai]

How would you balance Australia's budget?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2014/may/09/budget-cuts-revenue-interactive

$5.90b - Don't raise defence spending
+ $5.40b - Cut fighter jet purchase
+ $4.00b - Tax private trusts
+ $9.10b - Keep carbon price, scrap direct action
+ $8.80b - Scrap proposed paid parental leave scheme
+ $8.00b - Pharmaceuticals spending reform
+ $74.60b - Broaden the GST
= $116b savings, $11.9b forecast surplus

Didn't want to broaden the GST but I did it to get over the line and so I wouldn't have to cut anything else. If I had to do anything else I would go with fuel price indexation and halve diesel fuel rebates. The debt levy (lol) might have been ok if it was only on people making over $180,000 instead of starting at $80,000.

I was in lock-up feeling sick as I was reading it all.

I was watching Joe Hockey's interview on television and felt the bile rising into my throat as soon as Oakes asked him about dancing to Best Day of My Life in his office. This and the cigar-smoking thing is basically a caricature of conservatism come to life.

I've decided I'm joining the ALP. They're useless, and I treasure my independence, but quite frankly I *have* to do something to ease my feeling of being entirely powerless in the face of this truly unbelievably bad government.

I'm not a lover of Labor at any level, and there are plenty of reasons not to join them, but quite frankly Tony Abbott and company are breaking my country and while I doubt Labor is actually a fix for anything I really can't think of any way I can engage without doing so.

Amusingly enough, I'm pretty much set on not voting for Labor in the state election, and I certainly won't be campaigning for them after joining up, but even though I personally think that state politics is at least as important as federal politics, the crumminess of the state ALP is absolutely nothing compared to the horror that is the federal coalition.

Is it the political faction in-fighting you hate about the ALP? Overall, their policies actually seem pretty good to me.

Edit:

At least they aren't proposing to solve the deficit with a tax cut as some here would do.

Granted, but it's taken until like... the last few weeks for the Government to acknowledge that there is as big an issue with revenue (if not a bigger one) than spending. Because they've been outright lying about the nature of our public spending... saying it's exploding, when its not - saying our pension system is unsustainable, when studies show it to be the most stable and sustainable in the world... the issue is revenue.

But as Joe Hockey (ie about beat John Howard as the worst Treasurer we've ever had) continues to ignore - had revenues from 2006-7 been maintained, we'd have a Budget surplus. But the combination of the GFC (which conservatives all of the world seem to forget ever happened), the increased value over than time of the Australian dollar and the instability of our trading partners... Government revenues have dropped.

Bottom-line, there is no Budget emergency we could make fewer drastic changes, keep the cuts the former Government put in place, and they could claim credit for a track to surplus and start paying down the debt in 4-6 years.

And don't forget they keep talking about the "Labor debt", incurred as a result of trying to keep our economy above water. I mean for goodness sake Labor only had government right before the sh*t hit the fan and right after the crisis ended. I really hate when I talk to people and they say both sides are the same or that Rudd and Gillard did a terrible job. Or criticism of the carbon tax and the mining tax. Uggh.

And there's the possibility the Coalition could needlessly cause a contraction with the budget cuts and tax hikes and drag us right into recession. If that does happen they will probably blame that on Labor too and the idiots will believe it because they didn't have "surplus".

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A pensioner gave Abbott a piece of her mind... his response? Well... take a look.

If anything, this Government's tone-deaf approach to the Budget has made the public perceptions even worse. Hockey and Cormann smoking cigars, a leak that Hockey was dancing with his wife before the speech to 'This Will Be the Best Day of My Life' and his family potentially breaking rules about the proper use and management of the Coat of Arms...

Frankly, his behaviour tells me even more than I already knew about Hockey/Cormann - this was an ideologically-driven wet-dream disguised as a Budget. It doesn't really address the structural deficits, it attacks everything the Liberals have fought against since the 70s - universal healthcare, access to University based on merit, thinking people on welfare are just 'lazy'... etc etc.

It's f'ing disgusting and I'm even more ashamed of this Government than I was before.

Oh and it's a VERY clear back-door method for calls into increase the GST and throw the blame on the states.

[tik 🪀✨]

Thanks for needlessly making my life and millions of other peoples lives harder, Liberals.

Seriously, this is completely irresponsible governance. This is not "we are all in this together," this is mildly inconveniencing some higher income earners and leaving the rest of us to rot. This is making it harder for anyone at the bottom to even get an opportunity to attempt at climbing. Reprehensible.

[You kip if you want to...]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9PnBnb6ASQ

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Considering the way Labor (as well as pretty much everyone else) has been eviscerating this Budget and the Government, the Budget reply speech tonight (which I'll be in the gallery for) should be a real barn-burner.

[MaxQue]

Can we already stick a fork in the Coalition?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Can we already stick a fork in the Coalition?

There's still more than two years. My primary issue is whether or not Abbott will descend into what I call the 'Gillard spiral' - where the public stop listening to you and don't trust you. It's also what killed Rudd, when he pulled back on the ETS and refused to call a double-dissolution over it (which he would have won in early 2010) ... he lost the moral authority to govern in the people's eyes. Gillard's authority slowly trickled away and Abbott is certainly risking that fate.

It's clear he's following the Howard model and risking unpopularity early and clawing it back for the election. The problem is, Howard was still in his honeymoon (Abbott never got one), the polling leading with a still weak opposition leader (see below) and there was a sense that he did some good things despite the pain... (the public response to this Budget has been vicious). Plus, Abbott doesn't even possess 1/5 of John Howard's innate political skill.

The interesting thing to consider is that Tony Abbott only got consistently ahead of Gillard as preferred PM in the last 3 months of her tenure. The Essential Poll (which psephologists don't like because of its stability and lack of response to sudden changes) has Shorten ahead as preferred PM. Plus there's going to be a SLEW of polls early next week, Morgan/Essential/Nielsen/Newspoll... 

[morgieb]

Can we already stick a fork in the Coalition?

Still two and a half years, and their majority is pretty damn big. But the signs aren't great, the deficit levy definitely smells like Abbott's carbon tax.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Fantastic speech by Shorten - found myself clapping and joining the standing ovation. Most entertaining part - watching how irritated Bronny was at the clapping and how angry Joe was in general.

[Knives]

I'm pretty sure Pyne called him a c___. If you listen it doesn't sound like grub at all.

[Platypus]

Re-watching Shorten now, very very good speech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrxAlX6aOy8

[Mordecai]

Pyne tried to get Bishop to stand up to halt the applause for Shorten, lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKCHnIozGTE

[Knives]

Re-watching Shorten now, very very good speech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrxAlX6aOy8

Yeah, I feel like he's been holding back until now. He savaged them.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Turnbull is open to a double-dissolution... not so much the Government.

[afleitch]

What I find curious about the Liberals is that they are governing like Hague would have done here had the Tories won in 2001; too soon, too ideological and ultimately damaging to themselves and the country.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The far-left strikes again...

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I'm pretty sure Pyne called him a c___. If you listen it doesn't sound like grub at all.

I did have a listen, and I cannot believe anyone in the HoR would use such a word!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The far-left strikes again...

I've been through worse at the fish-markets on Christmas Eve...

I'm pretty sure Pyne called him a c___. If you listen it doesn't sound like grub at all.

I did have a listen, and I cannot believe anyone in the HoR would use such a word!

If anyone did use that particular word... I'm not surprised it's him. Kind of appropriate him being Minister for Education, considering how juvenile he is.

[Platypus]

I have no problem with him using it, more with his poor attempt at a denial.

[BaconBacon96]

That was a great speech by Shorten. I supported the Coalition going into the election, but now I'm questioning their judgement.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nielsen is out... 56-44 ALP with Abbott's approval down 9 to 34% and his disapproval up 12 to 62% (biggest recorded change in a single period for a PM's approval)... more to come.

Nielsen

Primary
LNP - 35% (-5)
ALP - 40% (+6)
GRN - 14% (-3)

TPP (based on 2013 preferences)
LNP - 44% (-4)
ALP - 56% (+4)

TPP (based on respondent preferences)
LNP - 42%
ALP - 58%

Approval
Abbott - 34% (-9)
Shorten - 47% (+4)

Disapproval 
Abbott - 62% (+12)
Shorten - 39% (-2)

Preferred PM
Abbott - 40% (-5)
Shorten - 51% (+6)

This is the first time since the election that a preferred PM rating of 50%+ has been recorded and for a first-term PM not to be the recipient of it... is shocking.

[Talleyrand]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/18/nielsen-56-44-to-labor/

lol

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll is out a day early... while the headlines aren't AS bad for the Government, they're pretty terrible and the internals are worse.

Sufficed to say #morepopularthanabbott is trending...

55-45 ALP - ALP ahead on primaries, Abbott on -30 net satisfaction and ... Shorten 10% ahead as preferred PM.

Newspoll

Primaries
LNP - 36% (-2)
ALP - 38% (+4)
GRN - 11% (-3)

TPP
LNP - 45% (-2)
ALP - 55% (+2)

Satisfaction
Abbott - 30% (-5)
Shorten - 42% (+7)

Dissatisfaction
Abbott - 60% (+4)
Shorten - 39% (-2)

Preferred PM
Abbott - 34% (-6)
Shorten - 44% (+6)

[You kip if you want to...]

How long until a spill?