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Author Topic: Australia General Discussion  (Read 249665 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1750 on: February 01, 2015, 08:31:32 PM »


It's about to start.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1751 on: February 01, 2015, 08:40:00 PM »


Watching it now. He sounds like Campbell Newman. How many times has he said the word "strong" in its various forms?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1752 on: February 01, 2015, 08:51:40 PM »


Watching it now. He sounds like Campbell Newman. How many times has he said the word "strong" in its various forms?

This is utter desperation, national security, bad bad Labor, Muslims etc etc
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #1753 on: February 01, 2015, 09:02:44 PM »

Just tuned in, did Abbott really not talk about Queensland at all? Lol.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1754 on: February 01, 2015, 09:03:57 PM »

Just tuned in, did Abbott really not talk about Queensland at all? Lol.

0 mentions, literally.

He did mention "minor administrative changes" on the state level.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #1755 on: February 01, 2015, 09:06:14 PM »

Just got back from dinner. What's Abbott talking about, exactly?
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Knives
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« Reply #1756 on: February 01, 2015, 09:07:48 PM »

Clive Palmer donated 28 mill to his political party. lol.

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1757 on: February 01, 2015, 09:08:41 PM »

Just tuned in, did Abbott really not talk about Queensland at all? Lol.

0 mentions, literally.

He did mention "minor administrative changes" on the state level.

He wasn't talking about the 'administration' as in Government, he was talking about the administration of the GST.

And, this was a horrid speech... and the media is letting him off the hook.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #1758 on: February 01, 2015, 09:09:01 PM »

Just got back from dinner. What's Abbott talking about, exactly?

Very little.  He just turned a question on unemployment into a rant against the Victorian Government and the East-West Link.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1759 on: February 01, 2015, 09:09:49 PM »

Just tuned in, did Abbott really not talk about Queensland at all? Lol.

0 mentions, literally.

He did mention "minor administrative changes" on the state level.

He wasn't talking about the 'administration' as in Government, he was talking about the administration of the GST.

And, this was a horrid speech... and the media is letting him off the hook.

Ah, missed it.

He did ask what sort of madness possesses people to vote for ALP governments. Insulting the electorate isn't really the way to go right now.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #1760 on: February 01, 2015, 09:11:11 PM »

Just tuned in, did Abbott really not talk about Queensland at all? Lol.

0 mentions, literally.

He did mention "minor administrative changes" on the state level.

He wasn't talking about the 'administration' as in Government, he was talking about the administration of the GST.

And, this was a horrid speech... and the media is letting him off the hook.

Ah, missed it.

He did ask what sort of madness possesses people to vote for ALP governments. Insulting the electorate isn't really the way to go right now.

That, and criticizing a government for fulfilling an election promise (re: EWLink) is hilarious in itself.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1761 on: February 01, 2015, 09:33:13 PM »

The message of this speech is "I'm not going, you want me gone... blast me out of office".
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1762 on: February 01, 2015, 09:44:00 PM »

The message of this speech is "I'm not going, you want me gone... blast me out of office".

How long does everyone think he has?

I'd guess he has a month to turn it around at most; I just can't envision him hanging on from this.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #1763 on: February 01, 2015, 09:46:17 PM »

Who was the last Australian Prime Minister who didn't have some sort of glaring personality defect that noticeably affected their ability to do their job? Was it Hawke or Fraser? I honestly think it might have been either Hawke or Fraser.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #1764 on: February 01, 2015, 09:47:18 PM »

I'm less certain that there will be a challenge in the near future.  There is a growing minority in the backbenches that want Abbott gone now, but I just have a feeling that the Liberals have learned something from the last government.

As has been said before, the best option would be for Abbott to bow out and let new leadership come in without a challenge.  That obviously will not happen, so for the moment, the potential challengers want to avoid messy leadership challenges.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #1765 on: February 01, 2015, 09:48:22 PM »

Who was the last Australian Prime Minister who didn't have some sort of glaring personality defect that noticeably affected their ability to do their job? Was it Hawke or Fraser? I honestly think it might have been either Hawke or Fraser.

Well, if you listen to Paul Keating, Hawke was asleep at the wheel for most of the '80s. Grin
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1766 on: February 01, 2015, 09:51:41 PM »

I'm less certain that there will be a challenge in the near future.  There is a growing minority in the backbenches that want Abbott gone now, but I just have a feeling that the Liberals have learned something from the last government.

As has been said before, the best option would be for Abbott to bow out and let new leadership come in without a challenge.  That obviously will not happen, so for the moment, the potential challengers want to avoid messy leadership challenges.

For sure the only thing stopping them right now is the disaster from the Rudd-Gillard change. That said the Coalition has got to consider that they're two incredibly different situations. Rudd, although going through a rough patch, was still personally popular and had an election-winning lead in the poll. His rolling was a massive shocker for the country. Meanwhile, Abbott is less popular than Gillard at this point in her term and doing worse than she ever did on the preferred prime minister total. Not to mention he's down in the polls 43-57, and that the Coalition has lost its majority in a state election as a direct result of his boneheaded "captain's picks".

You may yet be right that his situation may not be as perilous as we're hearing, but it's going to be really tough for him to keep the PM's office.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #1767 on: February 01, 2015, 09:56:26 PM »

Shorten will be giving a response to Abbott's speech shortly.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1768 on: February 01, 2015, 10:05:48 PM »

The thing that Abbott is forgetting is that when Rudd was rolled it came out of nowhere. He was having a tough time in the polls, but yeah.. so people felt screwed over. If anything Rudd's removal was based more on internal mechanics of Government, rather than policy. Gillard's removal saw a considerable recovery in the polls for the ALP.

Had three things happened (assuming we put the Rudd removal to one side) I doubt we would have seen this situation.

1. Gillard had not made the promise on the carbon tax ... this was the centre-piece of her downfall
2. They explained in brutal detail why Rudd was removed. This didn't happen, they didn't make it abundantly clear ... so that left a lot of unanswered questions, so when the Feb 2012 challenge happened, they eviscerated Rudd publicly and just made things worse
3. Offered Rudd a plum diplomatic post and get him to leave Parliament. Mind you, I don't know anyone who was capable of getting Rudd to do something reasonable.

The double-edged sword for the Libs is that yes, the public hates Abbott... but they also hate the policies. Gillard had popular policies, NDIS, Gonski etc etc but nobody listened to her and so she got no credit for it (to the point that the carbon price only had a single-digit neg negative rating by the time of the 2013 election). If they remove Abbott, there's still the incredibly unpopular policies to deal with. They're not suddenly going to change tune on dodgy policies just because the worst salesman is gone.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #1769 on: February 01, 2015, 10:09:00 PM »

Oh believe me, I know the reasons for the spat in 2010 thanks to Julia's book! Wink

But I absolutely agree that Abbott doesn't understand that.  The government's policies are dreadfully unpopular, and changing the leadership won't easily fix that, absolutely.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #1770 on: February 01, 2015, 10:19:50 PM »

Shorten's on now, by the way.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #1771 on: February 02, 2015, 03:04:58 AM »

For the reasons outlined by Polnut, plus the fact that Turnbull and Bishop have always been personally more popular than Abbott are why I think Abbott's going to go.

If they get rid of Hockey too, they can reduce the extent of their cuts and other unpopular economic policies.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1772 on: February 02, 2015, 06:11:24 AM »

The other issue to consider is that when it comes to leadership (in Government) the Libs are cowards.
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politicus
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« Reply #1773 on: February 02, 2015, 06:23:19 AM »

I kind of disagree that it will be Bishop.

She's an unmarried, childless woman ... everything said about Gillard would come into play. That doesn't sit well with a lot of the voting base. She also knows that people started digging into Gillard's private life the moment she became PM... it would be the same for Bishop and let's say there's certainly some decent skeletons to find.

I think Bishop is actually content where she is, for the above reasons and others.

My money is on Turnbull PM, Bishop retains Deputy and FA and Morrison gets kicked up to Treasurer.



What sort of skeletons?
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morgieb
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« Reply #1774 on: February 02, 2015, 06:29:43 AM »

I kind of disagree that it will be Bishop.

She's an unmarried, childless woman ... everything said about Gillard would come into play. That doesn't sit well with a lot of the voting base. She also knows that people started digging into Gillard's private life the moment she became PM... it would be the same for Bishop and let's say there's certainly some decent skeletons to find.

I think Bishop is actually content where she is, for the above reasons and others.

My money is on Turnbull PM, Bishop retains Deputy and FA and Morrison gets kicked up to Treasurer.



What sort of skeletons?
My mum mentioned something about screwing over people making abestos claims when she was a lawyer.
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