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Author Topic: Australia General Discussion  (Read 249651 times)
Ebowed
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« Reply #1800 on: February 03, 2015, 02:03:18 PM »

Lol - Giles stays with his usurper as Deputy lol

It also appears that momentum for the LibSpill is growing ... but it's coming from the back-bench, none in the front bench want to touch it.

Yeah Jensen is going to bring it up next week apparently.  With three backbenchers blasting Tony in quick succession last night, wonder if there will be more.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1801 on: February 03, 2015, 06:26:40 PM »

The thing about leadership speculation is now the genie is out of the bottle, it will NEVER go back in, save for some major national rallying event. He's now in an even weaker position than he was before, regardless of outcome.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1802 on: February 04, 2015, 07:06:56 AM »

Sinodinos has pretty much fired a warning shot across the bow. This is a really weird situation, but it feels that something is building. 24 hours ago it seemed the momentum was dying... then Jensen, Entch etc etc... even then, it seemed like a very small group. Now this afternoon with Sinodinos saying his support was not "unconditional" and asking what he was thinking "Comrade, ask me next week".

There are reports that Turnbull was calling people, this was denied and then it turned into the MPs were calling him and he's saying "Tony needs more time"... now Abbott's key deputies are doing the numbers and putting tremendous pressure on soft supporters to get in line behind the PM. Quite frankly, it makes it quite clear to me, that the leak about Bishop not giving an assurances was from the Abbott camp to force her to publicly claim her backing. It seems the wonky reports about Turnbull is exactly the same tactic. Put out a report that puts them in the spotlight, forcing them to claim loyalty. Because, if they've done so, then try to roll him, it pretty much dooms them from day one.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #1803 on: February 04, 2015, 07:41:45 AM »

You have to love the claim (currently being made by some Liberal politicians) that leadership challenges are an 'ALP thing'; no friends, they are an Australian thing.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #1804 on: February 05, 2015, 04:16:32 AM »

Turnbull's just done a 'Politics in the Pub' thing on the Central Coast. Apparently he was blatantly flaunting his Prime Ministerial credentials.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1805 on: February 05, 2015, 05:15:58 AM »

Turnbull's just done a 'Politics in the Pub' thing on the Central Coast. Apparently he was blatantly flaunting his Prime Ministerial credentials.

What I'd heard was that he referred to Hawke having Keating and Howard having Costello ... and Abbott not having anyone.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1806 on: February 05, 2015, 03:13:04 PM »

It appears the momentum is building again and it's behind Turnbull. Abbott is on the offensive, trying to set both her and Turnbull as disloyal liars if one of them tries anything.

'Dis could be gud
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #1807 on: February 05, 2015, 06:17:44 PM »

Pyne was asked on the Today show if Abbott had the numbers. He stumbled and refused to say.

This is very telling, IMO.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1808 on: February 05, 2015, 06:21:16 PM »

Pyne was asked on the Today show if Abbott had the numbers. He stumbled and refused to say.

This is very telling, IMO.

Worse of all, he said "I hope so..." - that's an absolute killer. The Abbott Prime Ministership is dead, it's just a matter of time before the plug is actually pulled. There are a lot of possible scenarios, options etc. The worst for the Government would be a close Abbott win in a challenge. If his margin is less than 25-30 ... not only is another challenge inevitable but he'd probably be pushed to resign.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1809 on: February 05, 2015, 06:22:10 PM »

Pyne was asked on the Today show if Abbott had the numbers. He stumbled and refused to say.

This is very telling, IMO.

Also, Shorten has already begun to attack Turnbull.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1810 on: February 05, 2015, 06:27:35 PM »

Pyne was asked on the Today show if Abbott had the numbers. He stumbled and refused to say.

This is very telling, IMO.

Also, Shorten has already begun to attack Turnbull.

The ALP is getting ready for an election to be called from Tuesday (I doubt it, but better to be ready). I think they would much prefer a double-dissolution, in order to rid them of the current Senate. But I don't think the Government has a trigger at the moment.
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« Reply #1811 on: February 05, 2015, 07:10:23 PM »

Pyne was asked on the Today show if Abbott had the numbers. He stumbled and refused to say.

This is very telling, IMO.

Also, Shorten has already begun to attack Turnbull.

The ALP is getting ready for an election to be called from Tuesday (I doubt it, but better to be ready). I think they would much prefer a double-dissolution, in order to rid them of the current Senate. But I don't think the Government has a trigger at the moment.

Surely a double dissolution would lower the threshold to enter the senate and send even more ... unique individuals into the senate?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1812 on: February 05, 2015, 07:20:43 PM »

Pyne was asked on the Today show if Abbott had the numbers. He stumbled and refused to say.

This is very telling, IMO.

Also, Shorten has already begun to attack Turnbull.

The ALP is getting ready for an election to be called from Tuesday (I doubt it, but better to be ready). I think they would much prefer a double-dissolution, in order to rid them of the current Senate. But I don't think the Government has a trigger at the moment.

Surely a double dissolution would lower the threshold to enter the senate and send even more ... unique individuals into the senate?

That is the risk... but I think they'd rather risk it, over keeping this particular Senate make up.
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Platypus
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« Reply #1813 on: February 05, 2015, 08:32:44 PM »

As long as Ricky "I told you he'd be good" muir gets back in, I'm alright with that Smiley

But I think things have simmered down for now. Turnbull won't challenge until he has the numbers, and he doesn't have the numbers. But one more tiny slip up from Abbott, and he's gone.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1814 on: February 05, 2015, 08:40:48 PM »

As long as Ricky "I told you he'd be good" muir gets back in, I'm alright with that Smiley

But I think things have simmered down for now. Turnbull won't challenge until he has the numbers, and he doesn't have the numbers. But one more tiny slip up from Abbott, and he's gone.

I kind of disagree... I think unless this is some Machiavellian master-stroke to build expectations and then present Abbott as strong-enough to withstand a challenge being called, I think momentum has returned. At this point, I'd be really, really surprised if Abbott comes out of Tuesday unscathed.
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Platypus
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« Reply #1815 on: February 05, 2015, 09:17:27 PM »

I hope you're right Smiley
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1816 on: February 05, 2015, 09:41:07 PM »

Luke Simpkins, a WA backbencher has informed colleagues that he intends to formally motion for a leadership spill.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1817 on: February 05, 2015, 09:47:33 PM »

Luke Simpkins, a WA backbencher has informed colleagues that he intends to formally motion for a leadership spill.

Don Randall, the MP for Canning, also in Western Australia, will second it.

Another telling line-

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-06/mp-seeks-leadership-spill/6075470
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morgieb
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« Reply #1818 on: February 05, 2015, 10:42:12 PM »

RIP Tone
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1819 on: February 05, 2015, 10:43:48 PM »


What I'll say... even IF Abbott sees off the challenge, or wins a challenge. This will not be the end of it. The only reason he's been kept on, if he does, is because so many are afraid of looking like ALP (2010-13).
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Platypus
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« Reply #1820 on: February 05, 2015, 10:46:07 PM »

Pyne is vacillating to make sure Turnbull and Bishop don't just go ahead without his boy Scotty.

It's done.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1821 on: February 05, 2015, 11:24:06 PM »

Abbott about to address the media.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1822 on: February 05, 2015, 11:35:07 PM »

It was a press statement of approximately a minute.

He and Bishop will urge the party-room to vote down the spill motion. So, he's trying to avoid an actual vote.

It should be said, it said nothing about what will happen IF the motion actually gets up.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1823 on: February 05, 2015, 11:43:35 PM »

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Roll Eyes
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1824 on: February 05, 2015, 11:45:39 PM »


It shows that he's learned absolutely nothing. He may well survive on Tuesday, but he will not be Prime Minister by the end of the year.
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