Australia General Discussion

[politicus]

The Bulgarian lady director of UNESCO will get the job.

It is not Europe's turn.

It is Eastern Europe's turn, however.

Is that official?

Eastern Europe has not been part of the post-Hammarskiöld rotation schedule:

Asia (10), Western Europe and Others (10), Latin America and Caribbean (10), Africa (15), Asia(-Pacific) (10).

There have been three European SGs whereas the non-European part of Western Europe and Others has never had a SG.

[Simfan34]

Well the rumblings are is that it's time to put them in. The government has already declared their support, a year out.

[Talleyrand]

The new Fairfax/Ipsos shows remarkable movement to the Coalition, with Labor ahead on 51-49, a swing of 3 points to the Coalition. On respondent allocated preferences, it's 52-48. Primary votes are 42-36-12.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/01/fairfax-ipsos-51-49-to-labor-2/

[Simfan34]

Is this good news for Abbott or are people assuming he'll be ousted?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Individual polls may move up and down, it's the overall pattern that is most significant (at least at this stage in a parliament).

[Barnes]

Is this good news for Abbott or are people assuming he'll be ousted?

The fact that the Coalition has been trailing in every poll for months is the important point at the moment.

[BaconBacon96]

Once that budget comes around, the Coalition will be in trouble once again.

[Barnes]

The Senate censured the Attorney General, Senator George Brandis, by a vote of 35 to 32 earlier today over the Gillian Triggs affair.

Labor, the Greens, PUP, and Jackie Lambie supported the motion while Nick Xenophon and Bob Day sided with the Coalition.

[Ebowed]

The Senate censured the Attorney General, Senator George Brandis, by a vote of 35 to 32 earlier today over the Gillian Triggs affair.

Good!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The new Fairfax/Ipsos shows remarkable movement to the Coalition, with Labor ahead on 51-49, a swing of 3 points to the Coalition. On respondent allocated preferences, it's 52-48. Primary votes are 42-36-12.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/01/fairfax-ipsos-51-49-to-labor-2/

It's f'ing bonkers. I doubt you'll see much more improvement since the Libs don't have the balls to dump Abbott... noting that Abbott is still behind as preferred PM and while Shorten is net 0, Abbott remains at -30. I mean the 57-43's were never likely to hold, but there's no explicable reason for such a shift. I genuinely think a lot of people had already factored a leadership change into the mix. Mind you, it should be noted that it appears Ipsos has about a 1.5-2% pro-LNP house effect.

There was a great line about the Liberal leadership, and how they handle it like a bunch of 12 year old girls going after a spider with a stick.

[morgieb]

The new Fairfax/Ipsos shows remarkable movement to the Coalition, with Labor ahead on 51-49, a swing of 3 points to the Coalition. On respondent allocated preferences, it's 52-48. Primary votes are 42-36-12.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/01/fairfax-ipsos-51-49-to-labor-2/

It's f'ing bonkers. I doubt you'll see much more improvement since the Libs don't have the balls to dump Abbott... noting that Abbott is still behind as preferred PM and while Shorten is net 0, Abbott remains at -30. I mean the 57-43's were never likely to hold, but there's no explicable reason for such a shift. I genuinely think a lot of people had already factored a leadership change into the mix. Mind you, it should be noted that it appears Ipsos has about a 1.5-2% pro-LNP house effect.

There was a great line about the Liberal leadership, and how they handle it like a bunch of 12 year old girls going after a spider with a stick.

Yeah, I'm thinking something like this for the sudden movement back to the Coalition. Apparently the polls narrowed when Rudd challenged Gillard for the leadership.

If Abbott survives then we'll start seeing 55-45's again.

[Talleyrand]

That seems to make sense. I first started following Aussie politics during Rudd's first challenge to Gillard back in 2012 and remember being surprised that the polls showed the government down "only" 47-53 before they blew back out to double digits when he lost.


Anyway, a rare poll is out from the Northern Territory, where, to put it mildly, the incumbent Country Liberal government has been a disaster.



On respondent-allocated preferences, the Labor lead is 62-38, an 18% swing from 2012, when the CLP won 56-44.

[Barnes]

It's nice to see some polling in the Terriotory after that fabricated crisis of the CLP. After that disaster, a polling collapse was fairly certain - which makes the aborted snap election all the more lamentable.

[BaconBacon96]

It occurred to me what the cause of this increase in government popularity is; The response to the Bali Nine issue and the two men up for execution in Indonesia.

[Talleyrand]

It occurred to me what the cause of this increase in government popularity is; The response to the Bali Nine issue and the two men up for execution in Indonesia.

I doubt that the shift in the polls is the result of any real shift in government popularity. Most likely it's probably just things shifting back to normal after the double Philip/QLD disaster has passed and with the spill growing more distant in voter's minds. I think the response to the issues in Indonesia is popular itself, but it hasn't really shifted opinion of the Prime Minister or his government much overall.

Of course, being Aussie yourself, you'd probably know more than I do.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll's wild ride continues. It shows the Government's marked recovery from catastrophic to merely bad, shifting back into disaster territory.

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[Talleyrand]

I don't know what's worse: Newspoll's wild swings, Essential's weird stability, or Morgan's bias.

[Platypus]

Or just polling in general any time other than within 3 days of an election. And even then...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Or just polling in general any time other than within 3 days of an election. And even then...

Well, polling is reflective, not predictive.

I don't know what's worse: Newspoll's wild swings, Essential's weird stability, or Morgan's bias.

Well, considering the collapse in Shorten's personal ratings in the last Newspoll, I argued that it showed not a pro-LNP sample, but an anti-ALP one. If you consider that people like William Bowe on Poll Bludget seem to see a pro-LNP house bias in Ipsos of as high as 2% plus adjust Morgan down by about the same number and ignore the immovable object known as Essential... and you pretty much end up sitting around 54-46.

[BaconBacon96]

So Abbott decided to back down on a planned cut of $500 million out of auto industry assistance without consulting his Cabinet or backbench.

He's digging his own grave, I tell ya...

[Simfan34]

What kind of assistance? Isn't Holden (i.e., the Australian auto industry, if I'm not mistaken) shutting down in two years or so anyway? Or is this assistance relating to this transition?

[BaconBacon96]

What kind of assistance? Isn't Holden (i.e., the Australian auto industry, if I'm not mistaken) shutting down in two years or so anyway? Or is this assistance relating to this transition?

I get the impression it had been an annual payment for some time and the reason they were planning to cut it was due to the end of auto manufacturing in Australia.

[Barnes]

Senator Glenn Lazarus, who was the Palmer United leader in the Senate, has quit the party and will now sit as an independent. This leaves only one PUP senator.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-13/glenn-lazarus-quits-palmer-united-party/6312002?pfm=ms

[BaconBacon96]

Palmer's Party is collapsing quickly. They probably won't survive after the next federal election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Palmer's Party is collapsing quickly. They probably won't survive after the next federal election.

This is something a lot of people predicted.