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Author Topic: Australia General Discussion  (Read 249722 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2050 on: April 12, 2015, 08:15:16 AM »


Ipsos has it 54-46, and Newspoll at 51-49.

Worst thing for Labor is the huge decline in Shorten's numbers. He's at 33-51, while Abbott is at 33-59. They're basically deadlocked for preferred premier.

...in Newspoll. Despite the 51-49 headline numbers not changing. It's interesting, considering how oddly tied the ALP vote has been tied to Shorten's standing in Newspoll, this one has his numbers tanking (although Newspoll has had some of his worst numbers) but the TPP holding firm. Whereas Ipsos has Shorten slipping slightly, Abbott slightly improving, but Shorten's lead as PPM increasing and the TPP moving towards the ALP.

Long story short, no one has any bloody idea.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #2051 on: April 12, 2015, 08:21:43 AM »

The only thing we can draw out of this is that it's unlikely Abbott will be rolled as long as the numbers continue to fluctuate like this and he gets a few 49-51's etc.

I'm not advocating for Shorten to be rolled yet, but if those numbers are true, it's quite clear that Rudd's reforms sort of missed the point. The reforms within the ALP should have been directed at the pre-selection level, reducing the influence of the factions and unions, while allowing the general membership to decide candidates on their own. I feel more comfortable with the membership deciding the parliamentary party, and the parliamentary party deciding the leadership.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2052 on: April 12, 2015, 08:30:59 AM »

Forgetting that Shorten is the best performing OL against a 1st term PM ever, polling wise. Even this bad number on preferred PM is better than Beazley had against Howard in the first term or Nelson or Turnbull against Rudd (frankly I don't think Abbott got ahead of Rudd). Shorten does not need to be removed, the Government still is yet to do better than a 50-50 in the polls since just after the election 18 months ago.

This is still a Government without a narrative or real strategy. If they do get one, then we'll talk. 18 months is a long time.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2053 on: April 12, 2015, 09:07:17 AM »

Have any pollsters tried seeing how the numbers change if Shorten was replaced with another more popular Laborite?
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morgieb
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« Reply #2054 on: April 12, 2015, 04:41:59 PM »

The only thing we can draw out of this is that it's unlikely Abbott will be rolled as long as the numbers continue to fluctuate like this and he gets a few 49-51's etc.

I'm not advocating for Shorten to be rolled yet, but if those numbers are true, it's quite clear that Rudd's reforms sort of missed the point. The reforms within the ALP should have been directed at the pre-selection level, reducing the influence of the factions and unions, while allowing the general membership to decide candidates on their own. I feel more comfortable with the membership deciding the parliamentary party, and the parliamentary party deciding the leadership.
Given that Shorten's win was largely down to the parliamentary party.....that's a bit odd to say that Rudd's reforms missed the point. Or am I missing something?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2055 on: April 12, 2015, 04:50:57 PM »

Have any pollsters tried seeing how the numbers change if Shorten was replaced with another more popular Laborite?

So far Shorten remains preferred ALP leader over Plibersek and Albo. 
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2056 on: April 12, 2015, 04:55:30 PM »

I'd like it if Albo was leader actually.
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Cassius
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« Reply #2057 on: April 12, 2015, 05:15:05 PM »

Any particular reason for Shorten not doing so well in the approval stakes? I thought he was reasonably popular (or is any popularity on his part down to the fact that he's not Tony Abbott)?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2058 on: April 12, 2015, 05:33:47 PM »
« Edited: April 12, 2015, 08:43:50 PM by Senator Polnut »

I'd like it if Albo was leader actually.

I voted for Albo but Shorten, up to this point, has done what is necessary. As we're now passt the half-way point of this term, it's time to start getting more alternative policies out there.


And on Cassius' point - it could be a lack of visibility, P'ment is on its pre-Budget recess so there's less to talk about. It is funny that no one is talking about how anomalous those Newspoll ratings are. Which has been the weird thing here. Abbott's approvals (give or take a few points) are pretty consistent across the polling firms but Shorten's were pretty consistent except Newspoll which does have a tendency to sniff out those who really aren't keen on Shorten.
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morgieb
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« Reply #2059 on: April 12, 2015, 05:53:09 PM »

Any particular reason for Shorten not doing so well in the approval stakes? I thought he was reasonably popular (or is any popularity on his part down to the fact that he's not Tony Abbott)?
The latter is more accurate, he was perceived as being popular because he wasn't Abbott.

I think Shorten's been seen as somewhat irrelevant and perhaps a bit of a hack. Also the OL is a bit of a dud job up until about a few months before the election.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #2060 on: April 12, 2015, 07:54:11 PM »

The only thing we can draw out of this is that it's unlikely Abbott will be rolled as long as the numbers continue to fluctuate like this and he gets a few 49-51's etc.

I'm not advocating for Shorten to be rolled yet, but if those numbers are true, it's quite clear that Rudd's reforms sort of missed the point. The reforms within the ALP should have been directed at the pre-selection level, reducing the influence of the factions and unions, while allowing the general membership to decide candidates on their own. I feel more comfortable with the membership deciding the parliamentary party, and the parliamentary party deciding the leadership.
Given that Shorten's win was largely down to the parliamentary party.....that's a bit odd to say that Rudd's reforms missed the point. Or am I missing something?

That was an unfortunate incident, yes, but I think we would see less results like that if more Labor MPs won preselection in pure branch ballots rather than simply getting on the virtue of factional deals and union hackery. The other big thing is that you need a 60% threshold to create a spill within caucus, and 75% if they're in government; I definitely don't think that should exist. It makes it harder to get rid of underperforming leaders.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2061 on: April 12, 2015, 10:05:14 PM »

Yes it was quite a short sighted gesture. I expect it'll be removed at some point.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #2062 on: April 13, 2015, 10:51:31 PM »

There's going to be a spill for the Labor leadership in the NT tomorrow.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-14/nt-labor-mla-ken-vowles-prepared-to-contest-labor-leadership/6391660?section=nt



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Talleyrand
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« Reply #2063 on: April 19, 2015, 06:42:34 PM »

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-19/nt-labor-leader-delia-lawrie-resigns-gunner-takes-over/6403864

Delia Lawrie has resigned. Michael Gunner (MP for Fannie Bay, Clare Martin's old seat) is NT Opposition Leader.



http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/04/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-south-australia/

Labor is ahead 54-46 in South Australia in the latest state poll.
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Knives
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« Reply #2064 on: April 24, 2015, 03:29:51 AM »

The Greens are such a joke of a political party, I can't even with them.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2065 on: April 24, 2015, 05:27:16 PM »

The Greens are such a joke of a political party, I can't even with them.

Context? No?
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #2066 on: April 24, 2015, 05:46:09 PM »

The Greens are such a joke of a political party, I can't even with them.

Far more electorally successful than most Greens, though.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2067 on: April 24, 2015, 05:48:36 PM »

The Australian Greens are one of my favourite Western parties. Definitely the best Green Party, overall.
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Knives
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« Reply #2068 on: April 24, 2015, 10:56:34 PM »

The Greens are such a joke of a political party, I can't even with them.

Context? No?

Just in general, but recently it's been the taking credit for things they didn't achieve - ie. Sam Hibbins claiming the new 50 trams Labor ordered as being his achievement. I'm a hack so probs don't listen to me lol.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #2069 on: April 25, 2015, 06:15:23 AM »

The Greens are such a joke of a political party, I can't even with them.

Context? No?

Just in general, but recently it's been the taking credit for things they didn't achieve - ie. Sam Hibbins claiming the new 50 trams Labor ordered as being his achievement. I'm a hack so probs don't listen to me lol.

Nah. It's a fair enough thing to say. Most places where they have a track record, they're seen as a bit've a joke.
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Knives
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« Reply #2070 on: April 25, 2015, 06:46:18 AM »

The Greens are such a joke of a political party, I can't even with them.

Context? No?

Just in general, but recently it's been the taking credit for things they didn't achieve - ie. Sam Hibbins claiming the new 50 trams Labor ordered as being his achievement. I'm a hack so probs don't listen to me lol.

Nah. It's a fair enough thing to say. Most places where they have a track record, they're seen as a bit've a joke.

It just annoys me how smug they are and how little the understand the mechanics of politics. Like, they want to close Hazlewood, good so do I but they haven't offered what to do with the people who will become unemployed because of it - they really don't give a sh**t about workers. It's frustrating because they paint Labor as uncaring but the reality is they don't give a sh**t either.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #2071 on: April 25, 2015, 04:46:20 PM »

The Greens are just a bunch of young inner-city Liberals who don't understand how economics work.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2072 on: April 25, 2015, 06:23:49 PM »

The Greens are just a bunch of young inner-city Liberals who don't understand how economics work.

Lee Rhiannon = basically John Howard?

I mean, I'm all for criticising hispters but that is a pretty silly statement...
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #2073 on: April 25, 2015, 09:24:09 PM »

I was being somewhat facetious myself, but the basic critique is the idea of the new Greens (not Bob Brown's generation you see) emerging in city centers as being children of affluent Liberals with an environmental conscious.

In all fairness, I was a little annoyed at their aforementioned foolishness.
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Knives
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« Reply #2074 on: April 25, 2015, 09:54:01 PM »

Also, they supported the Liberal speaker in the Vic Senate over Labors guys, it just doesn't make sense. They're infuriating at times.
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