Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I know why Abbott has rebounded somewhat, but what's the main reason for Shorten's approvals plummenting? Was he just only popular because he wasn't Abbott?

I think it could be a few things. Not the least of which the chance that Shorten was perhaps being artificially inflated due to Abbott being so toxic - Abbott's numbers really aren't THAT much better, but Shorten's have gone down and I think that's probably why. Many had seemingly factored a Lib leadership change into the mix, since that didn't happen, I think a lot of the not happy Libs have shifted back behind Abbott, whereas they might have been behind Shorten.

Again... Abbott is still the weakest first term PM of a first term Government in relation to polling for more than 40 years. Shorten is still well ahead of any first term OL. So a big part of this collective crisis on the "left" from Shorten's collapse was something that a lot of people warned against taking too much stock in. We're heading into political no-man's land for the next six months or so, so don't expect some kind of boost in support for the ALP any time soon, because the Government is going to do EVERY-THING in its power to avoid any kind cock-up. Of course, since we're dealing with the Abbott Government, we've no idea when the next balls-up will come.

While I do think the Ipsos 50-50 is probably a touch on the rogue side, with the consensus probably around 48-52, the reality is, the LNP vote probably has been artificially suppressed and conversely, the ALP artificially boosted due to how dreadful the first 18 months of the Abbott Govt has been. But, Australians are too forgiving, if an election were to be held soon, I'd expect the Government would be returned, but with a tiny majority (or minority) and an even more chaotic Senate. But it might be the only thing to help them, considering the Budget is based on very very rosy growth estimates that will likely not carry through and I wonder if they want to go to an election next year with absolutely none of their economic promises delivered? I can imagine some kind of argument later in June when the Government goes on the offensive on savings and calls an election for early August, saying we need a new Senate and until 2018 to get the job done, etc. 

[BaconBacon96]

An early election? I could see Abbott going for it, while the government's popularity has rebounded a bit and to starve off any movement for leadership change in the Liberal Party.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

An early election? I could see Abbott going for it, while the government's popularity has rebounded a bit and to starve off any movement for leadership change in the Liberal Party.

There is a generally held view (one that stats support) that the Libs (either in opposition or government) since 1998 make up about 4% TPP during an election campaign. Abbott has said before, but not publicly, "get me to 52-48 and we can win".

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This could get interesting.

[Knives]

Guys make sure you bombard anti-gay marriage Labor MPs with emails and calls about marriage equality.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

This could get interesting.

I expect Hifly to be here any second, foaming around the mouth, and declaring that this is a betrayal and  the reason Labour parties don't win any longer.

[Hifly]

This could get interesting.

I expect Hifly to be here any second, foaming around the mouth, and declaring that this is a betrayal and  the reason Labour parties don't win any longer.

Haha, well the news is inevitable.
We must remember however that it is simply unconscionable for Labor to outlaw their own conscience vote, while at the same time arguing that the Coalition ought to have one too.
Shorten, Albanese & co are completely right on this. 

[Ebowed]

Thank god the Labor party is putting equal rights to a conscience vote.  Otherwise, we would just end up ramming this policy down the throats of the public which supports gay marriage 2 to 1, at least.  Lol.

The most disappointing news out of the last week has been Shorten's agreement with the Coalition on not having any room for the people who are drowning in the ocean.  It's times like this where I feel really hopeless at the fact that whether the Labor or the Liberal party has control, this country continues to maintain brutal and dehumanising tactics to "discourage" illegal immigration.  On the plus side, this controversy brewing over the Abbott/Dutton proposal to let politicians strip Australians of their citizenship, rendering them stateless without due process, seems to be occurring not just outside of but also within the leadership, with Pyne, Brandis, Bishop, Andrews and Turnbull all on record as having problems.  When a policy is too fascist for Chris Pyne and George Brandis, you really have to wonder.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Thank god the Labor party is putting equal rights to a conscience vote.  Otherwise, we would just end up ramming this policy down the throats of the public which supports gay marriage 2 to 1, at least.  Lol.

The most disappointing news out of the last week has been Shorten's agreement with the Coalition on not having any room for the people who are drowning in the ocean.  It's times like this where I feel really hopeless at the fact that whether the Labor or the Liberal party has control, this country continues to maintain brutal and dehumanising tactics to "discourage" illegal immigration.  On the plus side, this controversy brewing over the Abbott/Dutton proposal to let politicians strip Australians of their citizenship, rendering them stateless without due process, seems to be occurring not just outside of but also within the leadership, with Pyne, Brandis, Bishop, Andrews and Turnbull all on record as having problems.  When a policy is too fascist for Chris Pyne and George Brandis, you really have to wonder.

Yes, there are still some Libs who have issues with contraventions of international treaties and well, decency. Just because they're scumbags doesn't mean we have to act like it.

[BaconBacon96]

I wonder how many Liberals will vote for marriage equality and how many Labor against. I'd expect the Nationals to be near universally against.

[Ebowed]

I wonder how many Liberals will vote for marriage equality and how many Labor against. I'd expect the Nationals to be near universally against.

I don't know that the Liberals have committed to holding a conscience vote, so you'd expect all of them to vote against it?

[BaconBacon96]

I wonder how many Liberals will vote for marriage equality and how many Labor against. I'd expect the Nationals to be near universally against.

I don't know that the Liberals have committed to holding a conscience vote, so you'd expect all of them to vote against it?

Abbott's been saying recently that if the party room wants a conscience vote he will grant one. I have a gut feeling he may allow it this time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I wonder how many Liberals will vote for marriage equality and how many Labor against. I'd expect the Nationals to be near universally against.

I don't know that the Liberals have committed to holding a conscience vote, so you'd expect all of them to vote against it?

Abbott's been saying recently that if the party room wants a conscience vote he will grant one. I have a gut feeling he may allow it this time.

I think he knows the writing is on the wall on this one.

[BaconBacon96]

Out of sheer curiosity, does anyone know why Family First do particularly well in South Australia compared to other states?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Out of sheer curiosity, does anyone know why Family First do particularly well in South Australia compared to other states?

Old, suburban protestants.

[BaconBacon96]

Out of sheer curiosity, does anyone know why Family First do particularly well in South Australia compared to other states?

Old, suburban protestants.

Do they exist in larger numbers in Adelaide or something? Or perhaps is it cause FF have a hold on the religious right vote that's more widely distributed in other states.

[morgieb]

Out of sheer curiosity, does anyone know why Family First do particularly well in South Australia compared to other states?

Old, suburban protestants.

Do they exist in larger numbers in Adelaide or something? Or perhaps is it cause FF have a hold on the religious right vote that's more widely distributed in other states.

Adelaide is a bit older than other capital cities, yeah.

But also in WA and NSW CDP are the party of the Protestant right vote.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Joan Kirner, the first female premier of Victoria, has died.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Joan Kirner, the first female premier of Victoria, has died.

R.I.P. Premier Kirner, here's a clip of her from 1993, signing I Love Rock 'n' Roll on Australian TV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGyD2hn7d3Y

[Talleyrand]

A great loss to be sure.

On a lighter note, take a look at this!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3107057/Pictured-Julia-Gillard-ve-never-seen-rocking-black-leather-skirt-fishnet-stockings-stage-fundraiser-12-years-prime-minister.html

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Alan Bond has passed away, following major heart surgery. R.I.P.

[BaconBacon96]

Alan Bond has passed away, following major heart surgery. R.I.P.

RIP corrupt businessman.

[Knives]

The union campaign at the next federal election is going to be massive. Bigger than 2007.

[BaconBacon96]

The union campaign at the next federal election is going to be massive. Bigger than 2007.

What makes you say this?

[Knives]

The union campaign at the next federal election is going to be massive. Bigger than 2007.

What makes you say this?

People I know who work for unions and campaign for unions, the way they're talking about what will happen during the election talking it up like it's their biggest campaign ever. It's noticeable in marginal electorates atm union campaigns are very active in Deakin atm and an election hasn't even been called. I was talking to a union guy this morning who basically summed up the campaign as "Vote for anyone but the Liberals".