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Author Topic: Australia General Discussion  (Read 249704 times)
Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #2225 on: July 21, 2015, 08:47:39 AM »

Western Australian Liberal MP Don Randall has died, suspected heart attack.

He was one of the MPs who moved the spill motion against Abbott in February.

RIP. He was only 62. Too young to die. Sad

On to the topic of a potential byelection... Canning is a mostly Liberal-friendly seat with some areas of Labor strength in Mandurah and Armadale. Right now it's on a 12% margin, but was only on a 2% margin in 2010 due the popularity of ALP candidate Alannah Mactiernan (now MP for Perth), so it's not out of reach for Labor. However, they'd need a literal perfect storm to win it, and the federal ALP isn't doing well enough for that. Not to mention that their best candidate won't be able to run. I'd guess a small (5-6%) swing away from the Libs in a byelection, but not enough to threaten them.

As for ChopperGate, I think it makes Abbott less likely to call an early election, simply because it has reduced the momentum he was getting from Shorten's "woes" in recent weeks.



Meanwhile, in the NT, CLP Speaker Kezia Purick has quit the party. This means the government only has 12/25 seats in parliament and has lost its majority.

R.I.P. Mr. Randall, gone way too soon Sad I was definitely shocked when I read the news earlier today.

Regarding the upcoming Canning by-election, there is a chance Labor could win it, but I think the Liberals will hold with a reduced margin (Labor last won it in 1998).

The redistribution should also change the area a bit, as the new seat will likely incorporate Armadale with Gosnells, and newer areas to the west/northwest, pushing the rest of the remaining Canning into rural areas.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2226 on: July 21, 2015, 08:53:15 AM »

I've met Randall a few times, apart from teasing me for drinking white over red, he was a thoroughly nice guy and way too young.

I don't expect we can win the seat, but I imagine the swing would be significant
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Knives
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« Reply #2227 on: July 24, 2015, 12:54:12 AM »

As much as people like to sh**t on the ALP for dysfunction it is by far the best party when it comes to debate and engaging members.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #2228 on: July 24, 2015, 09:08:37 AM »

The draft boundaries for the Western Australia Legislative Assembly are out. There are lots of significant movement, especially in the Perth area. The Liberal seat of Eyre in the rural southeast of the state has been abolished and a new notional Labor seat called Baldivis has been created in southern Perth. The marginally Labor seat of Collie-Preston has now become a notionally Liberal seat called Collie-Capel. Plenty of other changes too.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/wa-redistribution-2015/

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Knives
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« Reply #2229 on: July 26, 2015, 06:29:36 AM »

National Conference was pretty brilliant and reaffirmed my belief that Bill Shorten is the right leader of Labor. Countless brilliant motions were passed that will ensure if elected we will have the most progressive government since Whitlam. Although there are so aspects of conference that left me disappointing I cannot wait to campaign to get rid of this terrible ing government.
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« Reply #2230 on: July 26, 2015, 07:36:41 AM »

So it looks like a binding vote on gay marriage but only after the election (RIP hifly), ALP members no longer have to be union members, some kind of commitment to recognise Palestine and a 50% binding renewable target?


Unfortunately senators will still be picked by old boys' clubs and the boat turnbacks will continue.
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Knives
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« Reply #2231 on: July 26, 2015, 07:49:53 AM »

So it looks like a binding vote on gay marriage but only after the election (RIP hifly), ALP members no longer have to be union members, some kind of commitment to recognise Palestine and a 50% binding renewable target?


Unfortunately senators will still be picked by old boys' clubs and the boat turnbacks will continue.

Senate reform although I'm hopeful about would be ing difficult to implement and would still end up being dominated by factional leaders who'd be able to fund campaigns for those seeking a spot in the senate. I went to conference staunchly against turnbacks, but Tony Burke's speech really changed my mind, as cruel as it is to turn back boats - if it really does deter people from taking that journey I most definitely support them but as was pointed out, we won't know if it does work until Labor is in govt.
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Barnes
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« Reply #2232 on: July 27, 2015, 12:49:49 AM »

So, all in all a successful conference.  The asylum debate was never going to be easy, but it was done in a dignified manner by both sides and the result seems to be accepted by most.  Shorten, I believe, handled himself very well throughout all of this and though I doubt his polling will take much relief, he's certainly in a stronger position than at the end of the last parliamentary sitting week.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2233 on: July 27, 2015, 07:57:54 PM »

So, all in all a successful conference.  The asylum debate was never going to be easy, but it was done in a dignified manner by both sides and the result seems to be accepted by most.  Shorten, I believe, handled himself very well throughout all of this and though I doubt his polling will take much relief, he's certainly in a stronger position than at the end of the last parliamentary sitting week.

I think Shorten handled himself quite well. I think ALP leaders*** will dissipate. They knew Abbott wanted desperately to run an anti-immigration/national security early election... with Shorten given the right to neutralise one the biggest contrasts on a very potent issue in the election-deciding demographics, it certainly undermines Abbott's strategy.

The Libs wanted and needed a bloody National Conference. They didn't get it.

The contrasts with the Government on renewables, real tax reform and marriage equality are not something, I'd think Abbott would want to run an election on.

The other thing is, I still think the Libs want an election earlier, rather than later.

a) the Royal Commission report is due before Christmas, but no one knows what's going to be in it. It cost $80m... they'd want to be damn sure they've got enough to hurt Shorten with, otherwise it risks being attacked by Labor as a politically-driven waste of taxpayer's money. They'd rather run with the threat of the report, than run on it.

b) Mid-Year economic outlook (MYEFO) will also be in December and will raise some nasty financial outcomes, namely, while the value of the dollar has dropped, the value of iron-ore has also dropped. So likely greater deterioration in the Budget since May. I doubt they'd want that.

Fundamentally, I don't think they want to go to another Budget only a few months out from an election.   
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2234 on: July 29, 2015, 07:30:09 AM »

Bronnie, seemingly, is going the full Hitler in the bunker. She's refuting the public statements of Julie Bishop and claiming Abbott has backed her. I didn't think this could get better, but it might be.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2235 on: July 29, 2015, 03:28:43 PM »

The smart thing to do would be to get her to resign and let the government move on...but that's never been the Abbott way.
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Barnes
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« Reply #2236 on: July 29, 2015, 03:50:02 PM »

The smart thing to do would be to get her to resign and let the government move on...but that's never been the Abbott way.

Most certainly.  Dig in for the long haul.  We'll see how that works for them.

Apparently, Julie Bishop is claiming that Labor is planning a strategy of coordinated disruption during question time until this is resolved - so even more fun than usual!
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2237 on: August 02, 2015, 01:47:21 AM »

And she's resigned.

I wonder who her successor will be.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2238 on: August 02, 2015, 01:47:30 AM »

Bronnie has resigned.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2239 on: August 02, 2015, 01:48:48 AM »

And she's resigned.

I wonder who her successor will be.

I expect Bruce Scott (currently Dep speaker) will be speaker until the election (he's not seeking re-election).
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Knives
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« Reply #2240 on: August 02, 2015, 02:04:12 AM »

damn, I wanted her to stay.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2241 on: August 02, 2015, 02:06:00 AM »


It was never going to be allowed to happen.
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Knives
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« Reply #2242 on: August 02, 2015, 03:08:38 AM »


I know but like everyone hates her, she was such a great talking point for swing voters.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2243 on: August 02, 2015, 04:08:15 AM »


I know but like everyone hates her, she was such a great talking point for swing voters.

I'm interested David Speers was so confident that this has removed the threat from the Government. I certainly wouldn't be so comfortable.
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Barnes
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« Reply #2244 on: August 02, 2015, 08:14:46 AM »

And she's resigned.

I wonder who her successor will be.

I expect Bruce Scott (currently Dep speaker) will be speaker until the election (he's not seeking re-election).

The Deputy Speaker will I suppose be able to temporarily administer her role in the operations of the House, but the election of a new Speaker will have to be the first order of business next week with the Clerk presiding over the election.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2245 on: August 02, 2015, 08:25:02 AM »

And she's resigned.

I wonder who her successor will be.

I expect Bruce Scott (currently Dep speaker) will be speaker until the election (he's not seeking re-election).

The Deputy Speaker will I suppose be able to temporarily administer her role in the operations of the House, but the election of a new Speaker will have to be the first order of business next week with the Clerk presiding over the election.

No, as in he's one I could see serving officially in the role. Other names being mentioned are Phillip Rudock (considering Abbott sacked him as Chief Whip in March, it might be an odd choice) and Kevin Andrews
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Barnes
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« Reply #2246 on: August 02, 2015, 08:43:07 AM »

^Ah, yes, yes.  The practices of the House always interest me so I thought I'd focus on that for that post. Wink

Do you think Kevin Andrews would run into the problem of being someone in a highly political position being asked to serve as the independent arbiter of the House? Not that any Speaker has been extremely independent, but still as the recent example shows...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2247 on: August 02, 2015, 08:52:24 AM »

^Ah, yes, yes.  The practices of the House always interest me so I thought I'd focus on that for that post. Wink

Do you think Kevin Andrews would run into the problem of being someone in a highly political position being asked to serve as the independent arbiter of the House? Not that any Speaker has been extremely independent, but still as the recent example shows...

Well yes, the Speaker isn't that independent, but Bronny set an all-time low standard. The difference is its expected widely, that Andrews will retire at the next election, Speaker and Defence are seen as retirement pre-cursor jobs. You could maybe throw a Jane Prentice type up, despite her being critical of Abbott earlier in the year.
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Barnes
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« Reply #2248 on: August 02, 2015, 08:55:56 AM »

^Ah, yes, yes.  The practices of the House always interest me so I thought I'd focus on that for that post. Wink

Do you think Kevin Andrews would run into the problem of being someone in a highly political position being asked to serve as the independent arbiter of the House? Not that any Speaker has been extremely independent, but still as the recent example shows...

Well yes, the Speaker isn't that independent, but Bronny set an all-time low standard. The difference is its expected widely, that Andrews will retire at the next election, Speaker and Defence are seen as retirement pre-cursor jobs. You could maybe throw a Jane Prentice type up, despite her being critical of Abbott earlier in the year.

Wasn't aware of retirement plans with Andrews - his going for the job makes more sense in that regard.
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Barnes
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« Reply #2249 on: August 02, 2015, 09:34:44 PM »

Ruddock has stated he's interested in serving as speaker.

Additionally, it's possible that the Monday sitting might be used only to move a condolence motion for the late Don Randall.
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