Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ruddock has stated he's interested in serving as speaker.

Additionally, it's possible that the Monday sitting might be used only to move a condolence motion for the late Don Randall.

That would be expected.

Um, yes, Ruddock has expressed that interest, but apparently there are some strong feelings that he shouldn't. The name emerging recently is Tony Smith, Member for Casey.

You can't help think that Abbott really is starting to lose control...

[BaconBacon96]

Did Abbott ever really gain back control of his backbench after the February crisis- probably not. No wonder he can't control the narrative if he can't control the party room.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Did Abbott ever really gain back control of his backbench after the February crisis- probably not. No wonder he can't control the narrative if he can't control the party room.

Not really, but superficially he appears to have the chickens in line again. He looks much much weaker since all of this blew up.

Let's see what Newspoll has to say this evening.

[Mr. Morden]

What are people's thoughts now on the probability of Abbott being ousted within the next year (before an election)?  Back in February, we had this exchange:

I can't believe next year Bill Shorten will be PM, simply astounding.

Isn't there a decent chance that Abbott is couped later this year, and the government then wins back enough support under Turnbull (or whoever) to win reelection?

That is my current prediction.

[BaconBacon96]

Given his slight improvement in the polls,  I've been thinking that Abbott would probably survive given his slight improvement in the polls. That was until this latest scandal.

Now I'm not so sure since once again the competency of his leadership has come under scrutiny. The next few weeks might be vital towards the future of his Prime Ministership.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I still think they want to go before Christmas. But I think it will be late November or they'll wait until the last possible moment to give themselves some distance from the 2016 Budget so they can release a politically influenced pre-election outlook.

So, to put it in English. I think they want an early election, but if it happens it will be closer to Christmas or it will be Aug/Sept next year.

But if Abbott somehow falls before then, I'd expect an almost instant election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ugh - there's some kind of Twitter-based rumour that Newspoll was actually done over the weekend, but News Ltd is hiding it. Such bloody idiocy.

Newspoll has clearly been delayed to coincide with Parliament resuming and when the Ipsos in Fairfax papers is due out.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/australian-court-revokes-approval-for-adani-groups-12-2-billion-coal-mine-1438741179

thank you based ornamental snake + yakka skink!

let's hope these noble reptiles kill off this silly project once and for all.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/australian-court-revokes-approval-for-adani-groups-12-2-billion-coal-mine-1438741179

thank you based ornamental snake + yakka skink!

let's hope these noble lizards kill off this silly project once and for all.

Glorious news!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-06/tony-burke-asks-finance-department-to-review-his-entitlements/6676672

In other news, Manager of Opposition Business Tony Burke is under scrutiny for a $12000 taxpayer funded trip to Uluru in 2012 when he was Environment Minister.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mBWch9Z7gLw

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In the last two days ... two polls out with three expected today and tomorrow.

Galaxy: ALP - 53-47
Newspoll: ALP - 54-46

[BaconBacon96]

Tony Smith elected as the new Speaker.

[Barnes]

Very solid choice as the new Speaker.

In other news, has anyone been following the news furor over Ellen Sandell in Victoria placing a Greens' logo on the Aboriginal flag? Haha

[Barnes]

The full Coalition party room will meet at 3:15 to discuss Same-sex Marriage.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The full Coalition party room will meet at 3:15 to discuss Same-sex Marriage.

Pyne has apparently accused the PM of stacking the meeting to ensure the free-vote numbers are more tenuous, by having it as a Coalition Party room meeting, instead of just the Liberals.

[Barnes]

The full Coalition party room will meet at 3:15 to discuss Same-sex Marriage.

Pyne has apparently accused the PM of stacking the meeting to ensure the free-vote numbers are more tenuous, by having it as a Coalition Party room meeting, instead of just the Liberals.

Yeah, reports of "gasps" in the meeting this morning from Libs supporting SSM when the joint meeting was announced.  Moderate Liberals accusing Abbott of blindsiding them.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The full Coalition party room will meet at 3:15 to discuss Same-sex Marriage.

Pyne has apparently accused the PM of stacking the meeting to ensure the free-vote numbers are more tenuous, by having it as a Coalition Party room meeting, instead of just the Liberals.

Yeah, reports of "gasps" in the meeting this morning from Libs supporting SSM when the joint meeting was announced.  Moderate Liberals accusing Abbott of blindsiding them.

Now - we can see if any of the moderate Libs have any balls.

[Barnes]

Reports going around that about half a dozen Liberal MPs would cross the floor if a conscience vote is denied.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Reports going around that about half a dozen Liberal MPs would cross the floor if a conscience vote is denied.

That's only because the Ministry cannot cross the floor without losing their positions.

[Barnes]

Reports going around that about half a dozen Liberal MPs would cross the floor if a conscience vote is denied.

That's only because the Ministry cannot cross the floor without losing their positions.

Of course.  That size for a backbench revolt is pretty sizable.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The meeting's been going nearly 4.5 hours in total...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The joint party room has decided against a free-vote.

The mind boggles at the stupidity.

[Barnes]

Abbott might have won the debate in the short-term, but his method of doing so will almost certainly prove hazardous to his leadership position. 

[BaconBacon96]

While obviously it's an idiotic stance, we must remember that Abbott is trying to balance both sides on the issue. I recall there were reports a couple of months or so back of anti-SSM members threatening Abbott's leadership if he granted a free vote.

Of course what this only does is piss off moderate Liberals who may otherwise have been supportive of his leadership, like potentially Pyne for example. Pyne of course is one of Abbott's closest allies, so to have him offside is a very precarious position.

Abbott might also be attempting to frame this along factional lines. The February revolt had no clear leader or any clear factional allegiance, with both moderates and hardline conservatives opposing him. Abbott's logic could be that if he wins over the loyalty of one faction again he'll be able to starve off the opponents in another.

[BaconBacon96]

It should also be noted that a free vote would very likely still have failed in a Liberal only vote. The fact that Abbott brought in the Nationals to ensure this shows just how insecure about his own position in the party is.