Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Joe Hockey is setting up a Parliamentary Friendship Group with Labor's Katy Gallagher about the push for an Australian Republic.

Very interesting to see Hockey make such a public push for this now, but also encouraging from the point of view of the republican movement and the momentum that its been trying to build as of late.

Disgusting. Hope he's sacked.

...Most (or at least a strong minority) of high-profile Liberals are republicans, including Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull. This was the case in the Howard years too, with individuals like Peter Costello being self-professed Republicans.

Unfortunately it seems like it'll be a very long time before a republic comes into being.

Well Shorten is trying to fire up the energy within Labor again.

I think it will be within the next decade.

I think 20

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The gift that keeps on giving... and this one you can't immediately blame on Captain CockUp (although the chest-thumping BS is all from him).

[Barnes]

The gift that keeps on giving... and this one you can't immediately blame on Captain CockUp (although the chest-thumping BS is all from him).

Yeah, this whole affair was fairly...bungled, putting it mildly. 

[Barnes]

Denis Napthine is stepping down from the Victorian Parliament.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Denis Napthine is stepping down from the Victorian Parliament.

Yeah, it's going to be an interesting by-election me thinks.

[Barnes]

Denis Napthine is stepping down from the Victorian Parliament.

Yeah, it's going to be an interesting by-election me thinks.

I posted an article in the by-elections thread that postulates a strong challenge from the Nationals.  They certainly need some kind of momentum after the drubbing they were given at the state election.

[Barnes]

In other news, Dyson Heydon has decided to not step down from the Royal Commission, so that little show goes on for a while more.

[BaconBacon96]

In other news, Dyson Heydon has decided to not step down from the Royal Commission, so that little show goes on for a while more.

Given what happened with Bronwyn, you'd think the Coalition would accept the need for swift conclusions to scandals when they appear. Apparently not.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tony Windsor is getting ready to contest New England against Barnaby. Windsor knows the vibe of his electorate better than anyone. This is going to be deeply entertaining.

[Knives]

The slow slide to recession continues and all Hockey wants to talk about is CHAFTA and tax cuts - ing morons.

[Barnes]

Tony Windsor is getting ready to contest New England against Barnaby. Windsor knows the vibe of his electorate better than anyone. This is going to be deeply entertaining.

I will have to put New England back on my list of must-watch seats.  These country seats that are slipping away from having the Coalition as the only dominate force and electing mainly independents (Indi, New England, Shepparton in Victoria) are really interesting to me.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The two large West Australian outback seats should be interesting to see if the renegade Nationals make it. They were quite close in '13 in a very anti-independent atmosphere.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

My favourite type of gaffe: politician's conversation picked up by accidental mic:

 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-11/dutton-overheard-joking-about-sea-levels-in-pacific-islands/6768324

[DavidB.]

Hahaha, I love this kind of gaffe too. Gordon Brown remains the uncontested leader in that competition. This one is potentially damaging in foreign relations though.

(What happened to your name, CrabCake? :/ Time to download a virus scanner! This is the worst...)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh I was drunk and thought it would be funny

[BaconBacon96]

The government just can't get anything right. They had a relatively good week, only for this leak of a purported Cabinet reshuffle and the resulting leadership speculation on Friday.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It certainly feels like the wheels are coming off the donkey cart again.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/leadership-challenge-against-pm-tony-abbott-by-malcolm-turnbull-inevitable-liberal-mps-say/story-fnii5s3x-1227524449616

Is it finally going to happen? I'll still believe it when I see it, considering how that phantom challenge back in February went.

[Barnes]

I've always thought that Turnbull never really stopped stalking Abbott, but knew that last February was just too soon. 

If they move before Canning, I would be surprised, but not shocked.  I see a challenge and a likely Turnbull victory by the end of the year at the latest.

[BaconBacon96]

I still suspect there's a large section of the Liberal Party who have a 'anyone but Turnbull' attitude, who'd be more willing to put up Bishop or Morrison as Leader. Then again, I've read recently that even conservatives in the party are coming around to him as the only one who can save the government. That's what desperation does I guess.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This could well be a deeply entertaining week.

[BaconBacon96]

There is some speculation that Turnbull backers want to launch the challenge before the by-election, although my instinct would think that's premature.

However, after this week the Parliament does not sit for another three weeks. Would the Liberals need to wait that long to have a leadership spill, or can an emergency meeting be called in-between parliamentary sittings?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There is some speculation that Turnbull backers want to launch the challenge before the by-election, although my instinct would think that's premature.

However, after this week the Parliament does not sit for another three weeks. Would the Liberals need to wait that long to have a leadership spill, or can an emergency meeting be called in-between parliamentary sittings?

The timing is the issue here. It's a calculated risk, to a significant degree. If they think a shift to Turnbull would save some embarrassment and mitigate the swing in Canning (as well as the perceived other benefits)... worth the risk of looking chaotic.
 
The timing of a special party meeting is the prerogative of the leader. If Abbott wants more time to work the numbers and his support, then he's completely within his rights to not hold a special meeting (claiming the cost to the taxpayers of bringing everyone in was not worth it) and say that it can surely wait. Noting the way he handled the February spill motion - some people argued that Abbott should have declared the leadership vacant and called the spill himself, rather than forcing them to bring it on and therefore weakening him as his actual position wasn't actually tested.

I feel he would have equal magnanimity in this situation. He would force those who wish to take him on to do what he did in 2009, resign from the front-bench, show their cards, then call for the spill. Part of his calculations would be exactly what you're suggesting... this week is probably too soon but, as has in the past, will the momentum abate once Canning is over with?

Also, don't forget that the rumours running around town that Abbott may pull a Newman and call an early-election after Canning, before those around him can push him off the cliff. The point about this scenario is that it is being considered as something that could legitimately happen. That's the other element driving the idea of a spill this week. To ensure that Abbott doesn't force them over the cliff with him, a la Newman.

[Barnes]

Leading on from what Polnut posted above, the Sydney Morning Herald has a story out claiming that Turnbull's backers are trying to convince him to challenge this week.

There's a growing belief among the rebels that Abbott will call an early election to sideline them even if it means a certain electoral defeat. 

Now, like all stories that swirl around leadership spills I take that with a heavy dosing of skepticism, but to quote one anonymous Liberal MP about Abbott: "he's crazy enough to do it."

[BaconBacon96]

Recent Australian history has shown that incumbency is no longer enough for first-term governments to get reelected on. He would really have to be insane to go to an election with this kind of polling.

Does he even have a trigger for a double dissolution though?