Australia General Discussion

[Mr. Morden]

Also you must note, WA is not anything like the rest of the country atm.

What makes Western Australia so different from, say, South Australia?  Especially once they start fully exploiting their own fossil fuels for export?  

Well, for starters, look at the "per capita" numbers in this table:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_states_and_territories_by_gross_state_product

EDIT: Actually, it's kind of funny how in Australia, per capita GDP is positively correlated with the state voting for the more conservative party, while in the USA, it's negatively correlated with the state voting for the more conservative party.

Of course, as Andrew Gelman would tell you, while the poor states vote Republican in the USA, it's actually the richer people in those poor states who are the ones backing Republicans.

[Mr. Morden]

The Coalition's support really has little to do with them... and they know it.

This has traditionally been true in Australian politics at both state and federal levels. It's the old saying that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them.

Isn't that pretty much the case everywhere in the world?

[Mr. Morden]

ABC's giving live updates on the most recent developments on their blog:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-21/4586250

[Mr. Morden]

Bookies now strongly favor Rudd over Gillard on odds of winning the leadership ballot (might be different by the time you read this, since events are moving fast):

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics?LeftNav

[Mr. Morden]

As I mentioned, I find it strange the Coalition is trying to call again for an early election... you'd think if they were so sure Gillard was political dead-woman walking... you'd want to keep her on for as long as possible.

I don't think they want to risk a more secure and stable Gillard being able to get traction... There's no way a no-confidence motion passes... so the election will be in September, and you get the feeling the Coalition doesn't want that.

They want an election now because they'll win if it's held now.  They'll probably win if it's held in September too, but there's at least a chance that something happens between now and then that changes voters' minds.  So why take that risk, if they can avoid it?

[Mr. Morden]

How weak is the Prime Minister of Australia as a post? It seems very small compared to the UK for example...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21863630?ocid=socialflow_twitter_bbcworld&buffer_share=6a416&utm_source=buffer

That shows some of the glaring differences between Aus and the UK in terms of the strength of party leaders.

I only skimmed through that article, but it looks like it ignores the actual structural reason for why such coups are common here: A party leadership election can be called at any time for any reason, and it can all be resolved within a few hours.  Changing party leaders in the UK is a lengthier process, is it not?  I don't recall either Cameron or Miliband taking over mere hours after their respective predecessors announced that they were stepping down.

I can only imagine the drama that would have been unfolding for the last several years between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama if the US had something like the system in Australia.  Bob Woodward surely would have been able to get at least two books out of it.

[Mr. Morden]

So after the bloodbath of resignations in the Cabinet, who is the current favorite to succeed Rudd as ALP leader if the party still loses badly in the election?  I presume folks like Combet still might come back and contest the leadership in three months?

[Mr. Morden]

Is Wayne Swan retiring from politics altogether and not contesting his seat again?  I've heard contradictory things today.

[Mr. Morden]

Greg Combet is retiring from politics altogether:

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1783804/Greg-Combet-to-retire-from-politics

With all the retirements from anti-Rudd MPs, does Rudd actually stand a good chance of hanging on as ALP leader after the likely Coalition win in the election?

[Mr. Morden]

What if Labor actually *wins* the election?  I assume that Abbott is then toast as Liberal leader?

[Mr. Morden]

If Labor were to win 76 seats and Abbott did step down, who might replace him?

I would guess Joe Hockey or Malcolm Turnbull.

[Mr. Morden]

Forgive my ignorance, but what is an "econodry"?  I tried googling "Julie Bishop econodry", but all it gave me were links to Atlas posts by RogueBeaver. 

[Mr. Morden]

Overthrowing party leaders seem to be extremely easy, and unusually common, in the Australian system. Have their ever been any proposals to reform the rules (i.e., requring a full conference, party members vote, or simillar, rather than jut a majority of MPs)?.

Labor reformed their rules around the time of the last election, so that it's much harder to depose a leader, and the choice is made with input by the wider party membership now.  But the Liberals are still using the same old system, where basically any MP can call a leadership vote at any time for any reason.

[Mr. Morden]

Talk about going back to the future.

Random tangent: When did people start using the phrase "back to the future" to mean "back to the past"?  When the movie came out 30 years ago?  I've noticed its usage in that sense (usually by journalists writing headlines) more and more in recent years.

[Mr. Morden]

I can't believe next year Bill Shorten will be PM, simply astounding.

Isn't there a decent chance that Abbott is couped later this year, and the government then wins back enough support under Turnbull (or whoever) to win reelection?

[Mr. Morden]

The betting markets also have Turnbull as the favorite to be PM at the next election, and the Coalition (very narrowly) comes in as a favorite to win it.

[Mr. Morden]

What are people's thoughts now on the probability of Abbott being ousted within the next year (before an election)?  Back in February, we had this exchange:

I can't believe next year Bill Shorten will be PM, simply astounding.

Isn't there a decent chance that Abbott is couped later this year, and the government then wins back enough support under Turnbull (or whoever) to win reelection?

That is my current prediction.