Australia General Discussion

[Frodo]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-22/gillard-surges-ahead-as-preferred-pm-in-nielsen-poll/4325840

This marries relatively well with this poll from a week ago...

Primary vote
ALP: 34% (NC)
Coalition: 43% (-2)
Greens: 10%

TPP
ALP: 48% (+2)
Coalition: 52% (-2)
... that's a 12% shift to the ALP since June...

However, that is based on 2010 preference flows...

The Essential something or other had the same 48-52 result, based on 2010 preferences, but asked deeper about preferences and found the ALP picked up another point to 49-51..

Approval
Gillard: 47%
Abbott: 37%

Disapproval
Gillard: 48%
Abbott: 60%

Preferred PM
Gillard: 50 (+7)
Abbott: 40 (NC)

If Julia Gillard is re-elected as Prime Minister next year, would it be safe to conclude that Australians would have accepted the carbon tax, thereby rendering it no longer an issue?  

[Frodo]

PM Gillard would be wise to call the election at the latest possible date (Nov 30, 2013).  Her fate is tied to the carbon tax -when it breaches 50% approvals sometime next year, she'll be good to go. 

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Crikey is predicting that the upcoming federal election (the deadline is Nov 30) will occur in September.

Thoughts?

[Frodo]

Australia does have some curious minor parties.  Here's one,

http://www.sexparty.org.au/

and its Mission Statement:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What's 'wowserism'?

[Frodo]

What's the fate of the carbon tax in the event the Liberal-led coalition under Abbott regain power?  I presume they will at least try to repeal it -will they succeed?  What's the likelihood? 

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That was a bigger-than-expected victory for the Liberals in Western Australia -does anyone think they can replicate it in South Australian elections next year?  

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Also you must note, WA is not anything like the rest of the country atm.

What makes Western Australia so different from, say, South Australia?  Especially once they start fully exploiting their own fossil fuels for export? 

[Frodo]

Alexander Downer has just been unanimously elected as head of the South Australian Liberal Party.

How much of a difference does this make in how or whether the Liberals will take over the South Australian parliament next March? 

[Frodo]

PM Tony Abbott is perhaps the best weapon that Labor could use in their arsenal to stay in power in South Australia and Tasmania. 

[Frodo]

With the election in Victoria scheduled (for now) in November, how is it looking?  Will the Liberals there hold on, or will Labor be able to regain power?