Australia General Discussion

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The Howard era has made the Liberals a joke.

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He's like Stephane Dion.

Except Nelson is worse than Dion. I'm sure Stephane Dion does not get 9% in the polls as preferred Prime Minister, that's if in Canada they do have those sorts of polls.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Canadian_federal_election#Opinion_polls

Dion's pulling pretty average, at 30%ish.

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So, the Labor government is likely to last until at least 2013 or 2016?

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Kevin Rudd will be in power for 9 years at least.

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I'll see if I can get ahold of the Costello book.

And WTF NSW?

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So the Liberals are finally back in power.

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Why would Turnbull? The Liberals aren't going to win in 2010, probably not in 2013.

In other news, the Nats are at the point of no return. If they don't break with the Liberals now, they will become the Liberals.

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Hurrah! Minchin is Opposition Leader in the Senate!

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What a terrible name.

I hope they have an online feed.

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Hooray! I like this.

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Bringing back Rudd isn't seriously being considered, is it?

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Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

I suspect the people who run the Labor Party wouldn't like that.

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If Abbott wasn't heading the opposition, I'd want this dysfunctional party to fall from power asap. They need to reform themselves in a massive way so that the next time they're in control they can actually achieve significant policy changes without nattering like kids and having rampant factional problems. And I thought Democrats were aimless...

The ALP is essentially our Democratic Party, and it's just as competent.

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What interests me is the poll on the bottom. Internet poll and all, but 82% think Rudd is doing the right thing.

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Which is the problem... the public like him... but don't know him - his colleagues know him, and hate him.

The closer people get to him, the less they like him. I handed out HTV cards at the Woodridge by-election opposite him when he was a first term backbencher and found him to be an odious t***. Don't know if the word to fill the blank is allowable or not.

Pretty sure that 'twat' is fine here.

Only American profanity is censored.

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I'm under the impression that the factional wings of the party matter rather less than they used to. Is there any basis to that?

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The Labor Party is certainly more similar to our Democratic Party than any other political party in the world is.

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Also, the Canadian electorate is incredibly volatile; the Australian electorate is not so much.

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The fascinating thing about Australia is how clear it is that the people whose titles would suggest that they have the power don't actually have the power. It's more true in Australia than any other Western democracy, I think.

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If you haven't seen what Antony Green has to say (video), you absolutely need to. To make it quick, he points out that an early election would necessitate a separate half-Senate election next year, since not enough time has elapsed since the last Senate election. He notes that half-Senate elections have historically been disastrous for the ruling government, so the Liberals would not be particularly keen on one happening next year; as a result, they might not attempt to bring the government down even if they have the numbers to do it.

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Gillard and Swan elected as Leader and Deputy Leader unopposed. All that's changed is that now Simon Crean is on the backbench for the first time in his 22-year parliamentary career.

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My guess would be that Crean would be a player, but it looks like 2013 hasn't really been good for him, particularly now that he's lost the Deputy Leader election (and by a wider margin than Gillard's loss).

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If Labor were to win 76 seats and Abbott did step down, who might replace him?