Australia General Discussion

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Whoever was leader following November's election was going to get mauled in the polls.

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And it's why we've got to stick with Nelson for a while - replacing him is only going to burn another potential leader with bad polls and make them unelectable in the future.

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I heard Andrew Robb speak on the weekend. That man is a future PM.

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I saw that. As a Queenslander (living in Melbourne), I am impressed with her. She did a good job as Governor back home, and I think she'll do a good job as G-G.

Andrew Robb spoke very well, he clearly enunciated where the party's at and where it needs to go and I think he would make a good leader.

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Nothing more than a PR stunt.

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I'll see if I can dig up some figures on it for you. Will get back to you on it.

Saw a mate on the coverage the other night.

He told me the other day that he was flying up to Canberra for a conference... I didn't realise he was going to THAT conference...

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Haven't found anything yet about the cost - I'm expanding my search on Monday (calling up a couple of other mates in MP/Senate offices to see if they know).

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There are no easy solutions and binge drinking certainly has some very negative impacts on health and societal issues. I obviously am no fan of the Rudd Government, but I think that steps need to be taken and at least they're not shying away from the issue and making an effort. The big problem has been that the price of RTDs has gone up because of the tax increases, making it cheaper to buy straight spirits and mixers - resulting in young drinkers at house parties making their own drinks (and the risk that these drinks may contain a higher alcohol content than RTDs. Obviously this is an unintended consequence, and the government should look at other steps as opposed to a simple taxation of alcohol. I think I've recently seen some comment from MPs on my side of the fence who've suggested that instead of increasing the tax on RTDs, perhaps there should be a maximum alcohol concentration that is lower than presently. Indeed, I think I saw a mention - and this particular mention may have actually been from a political commentator whose free daily newsletter I subscribe to - that RTDs should contain a concentration of alcohol similar to beer. Obviously that couldn't prevent people from adding additional alcohol to their drinks, but I think we need to do something and this might just help...

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Yeah, the Herald Sun today reported that petrol prices in Perth are regularly higher than in Sydney and Melbourne - and that seems to be the advice of PMC, the Industry Dept and the Energy Department.

Don't know if it will finally end the honeymoon, but it might start to work.

I once heard it said that you campaign in poetry, but govern in prose... that the job of running the government is never as elegant as you make it sound before winning (and hence why the Greens can say whatever they want whenever they want).

Rudd made lots of nice soft poetic noises about interest rates, grocery bills and fuel prices for his beloved "working families" before the election... now he's running into the tough job of actually doing something about it. That old "end the blame game" and "the buck stops with me" might come back to haunt him (or then again, perhaps it won't).

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Petrol prices is a worldwide crisis. Australia, France, Canada etc.

Try telling that to Kevin Rudd, the man who believed that even though the current Petrol Crisis is that of a worldwide one, he could cut petrol prices.

Furthermore, they were just as much a worldwide problem when Rudd was in Opposition, attacking the then-Government on petrol price pain and promising that if he were elected, he'd do something about it. His problem is not that he can't do anything about petrol prices, it's that he promised he would do something about them.

Mind you, I must admire his slight-of-hand of trying to deflect the tax-on-petrol debate from the excise on fuel to the GST on the excise on fuel... When the Opposition Leader said that fuel excise should be cut by 5c per litre, he said that the GST on fuel excise should be cut. That would work out at about a 4c per litre decrease in price - one full cent less (particularly when you consider the cut of 0.5c the GST would be cut because of the 5c cut of excise suggested by the Opposition). But even though he's promising less, the real beauty of his plan is that the Federal Government receives fuel excise, whereas the State Governments receive all of the money from the GST (Federal Treasury doesn't even deduct a collection fee). So he's promising tax cuts that wouldn't affect his budget at all, only state budgets (and from what I saw yesterday, that would put a $1 billion hole in the Victorian state budget alone).

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Nelson actually looks to be gaining some confidence in his role now.

Rudd's honeymoon (albeit extended) will end... they always do.

Keep in mind the 16 seat majority rely on a lot of tiny margins... many in QLD. A friend of mine worked out that to change government the Libs need to gain 10,000 votes in those seats. It's certainly doable.

Rudd promised so much during the campaign... but he's not able to deliver.... it's starting to piss people off. It's either high-profile commissions or events that really do nothing, or economic/social policy (except Indig. policy) that's not that different to Howard. In spite of what people said and the Labor policy, people didn't vote for Rudd to be Howard, they voted for him to be different.

Here in the ACT - the sense of dissatisfaction with Rudd is palpable - his extreme demands on the public service (trying to live up to his "constant activity=work ethic"), going back on his promise to respect the ACT's right to create civil unions.

Furthermore, in Queensland, there was a certain parochial support for Rudd. I went back to campaign there in the final week and the voting booths all had Labor signs saying (and I can't remember the words verbatim, but they were to the tune of) "Now's our chance to vote for a Queenslander for PM". While that didn't cost us the election, it certainly would have given Labor a bounce in some of the Queensland seats they picked up. Rudd being a Queenslander will probably continue to assist him, but as the novelty of a Queensland PM wears off (and before Rudd, the last Queensland PM was Frank Forde for 8 days in 1945, before him Arthur Fadden for a couple of months in 1941 - both of whom became PM by virtue of being Deputy PM at the time of the resignation or death of the PM, the only Queenslander to have led a federal party to an election and subsequently elected PM prior to Rudd was Andrew Fisher, last elected in 1914), it will have less of an impact.

The impact of Rudd in Queensland can be seen in the statewide 2PP result - since Menzies winning government in 1949 (the earliest figures I could find on the AEC website) 2007 was only the third time Labor won the 2PP in Queensland - and 1990 was probably more to do with the ill-fated "Joh for PM" push. Rudd's hometown advantage can't be underestimated - although even with this, Labor still only achieved 50.44% of the 2PP which was lower than all other states and territories except for Western Australia and 2.26% lower than their national 2PP result of 52.7%. (Sources: http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseTppByState-13745.htm and http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/Australian_Electoral_History/House_of_Representative_1949_Present.htm ). So Queensland's probably already at or near its high-water mark for Labor.

Even with Labor's strong result nationally, I understand that Rudd's 16-seat majority is the smallest first-term Government majority since Federation (although I'm guessing that's in percentage terms of representation in the House - as Hawke doubled the number of seats prior to the 1984 election). Given that governments tend to get unpopular/more unpopular over time, Rudd doesn't have a much tighter margin as might be indicated by the 2PP results.

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I said before the election that the only thing Rudd stands for is getting elected and that he will say whatever it takes to achieve that outcome. Unfortunately, it appears that's exactly the case - he said plenty to get people to vote for him, but now is delivering very little of what he promised.

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Before 2007, the last PM to lose his seat was Bruce. He lost it on the back of IR legislation he introduced. Most people stop drawing the parallels there...

But the following PM, Scullin, was hit shortly after by economic turmoil that started offshore - a stock market crash, followed by the Great Depression...

Scullin was a one term PM...

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That was my hope... not to try to say that Rudd will be a one-termer because Scullin was and various other things seem to be going similarly - like you, I was trying to stimulate some Australian Political History there. It's interesting to read over.

I don't mind Lyons. His was the largest family to occupy the Lodge - 15 children if I remember correctly... He was also one of six Australian PMs to have not been elected from a seat in NSW or Victoria (Lyons was Tasmanian). His wife, Edith Lyons, was the first woman elected to Parliament (however Dame Anabelle Rankin from Queensland was the first female Government Minister. Both were conservatives.

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Costello would be a fantastic leader!

What's the source? The Australian?

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24104901-601,00.html

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"On the economy, the Liberal Party left us with interest rates the second highest in the developed world, inflation at a 16-year high and 10 successive interest rate increases and beyond that, on climate change, 12 years of neglect and denial, and the only thing they believed in, WorkChoices."

Mr Rudd dismissed suggestions that, given the economic circumstances, Mr Costello would make for a formidable opponent.

"The key question on the future of the country is are you fair dinkum about long-term economic leadership and what we've inherited from 12 years of Costello as treasurer are the facts and figures I ran through before, including the second highest interest rates in the world," he said.

Rudd knows more about spin than governance... When Costello ceased being Treasurer, Labor had the enviable position of no government debt, a future fund to pay off future public sector pension liabilities and interest rates that were still lower than they were when Costello became Treasurer. Furthermore, Costello paid off $96 billion of Government debt which was racked up by the previous government - even after they sold off Qantas and the Commonwealth Bank. And interest rates have been pushed up by the State Labor Governments that have been spending hand over fist and running up huge levels of debt. Rudd and Swan can't go ducking responsibility (although they probably will) on our current economic woes - under Costello's stewardship, Australia weathered the worst drought in history (that played havoc with our agricultural sector), the Asian economic crisis of 1998, the US recession of 2000, the global turndown in tourism following 9/11... no, if the Australian economy in Costello's hands could weather all of that, there is no excuse for Rudd and Swan to be doing so atrociously now. Costello was named Treasurer of the Year three years running by The Economist.

Trade Minister Simon Crean has told Channel Ten he is not sure Mr Costello is the answer to the Opposition's leadership problems.

"This is a guy that whenever he's been wooed he's never consented and whenever he's chased he's never succeeded," he said.

This coming from the only Labor Opposition Leader in history to not face the electorate as leader??? Simon Crean was a born loser who not only never succeeded, but was stood down before he was able to lead the ALP to electoral oblivion.

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I'm looking forward to getting it and seeing if he'll autograph it for me.

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I'm titty ing your mother! 
Now that's how you have a sex scandal!  You cats are nuts down under!

NSW Labor is imploding. A Premier who has only been in Parliament 18 months, a Treasurer who failed his university commerce degree and this. The problem is the nepotism and branch stacking that has allowed people without talent to get elected in safe seats and to then reach the front bench without experience. They are making a mockery of their own party.

Of course, the NSW Labor Government has been failing for longer than just this - their train system is in crisis, their roads are in crisis, their hospitals are in crisis... their debt level is going through the roof (while they appoint a uni dropout as Treasurer).

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WA Government falls:

National Party supports Liberals, as did one independent on election night, and the independent (ex-ALP) Member for Kalgoorlie had previously announced he'd support whoever the Nats decide to support. Two independents supported Labor, leaving it a 30-29 minority Government in favour of the Liberals.

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Federal Liberal Leadership Challenge - Turnbull to challenge Nelson for Leadership tomorrow morning

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24350023-421,00.html

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/631309/nelson-safe-as-leader-says-his-deputy

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Turnbull elected Leader:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24353407-601,00.html

Related links on right-hand side.

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Also remember, Kevin Rudd has the smallest first-term government majority in Australian history.

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Goverments are always vulnerable in the first term.

Rudd's got the smallest majority, but also so many of them are on tiny margins.

And there were some very large swings in Queensland, where the hometown novelty (first Queensland PM since 1944(?) Forde) obviously helped things. If the novelty wears off between now and then, and/or if he fails to live up to expectations, there may be a significant swing back against him. I think I've mentioned previously in this thread, but on election day, ever polling booth had an ALP sign saying "Now's our chance for a Queensland PM" - that certainly had an affect and I think it's very possible that the novelty will wear off. Of course, it might not, but then again, there are some slimmish margins up there...

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New WA Ministry:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24368855-5013945,00.html

Qld Lib/Nat merger still making news:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24368845-5013871,00.html