Australia General Discussion

[Peter the Lefty]

If I may ask a question, who do you think would succeed Gillard as leader of the Labor Party? Would Rudd make another attempt at the leadership?

The favorite is Employment Minister Bill Shorten, often hailed as Labor's "next great hope". However, considering that Labor will likely spend at least six years in opposition after 2013, I think he may not take the leadership.

Kevin Rudd's frontbench hopes are probably finished if Labor loses the next election. He is widely loathed in caucus and without their jobs at risk, the remaining Labor MPs would almost certainly not vote for him.

If this is the ALP's "next great hope," then it's in pretty dire straights. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLwCyn1nOP0&feature=youtube_gdata_player

[Peter the Lefty]

Peter: Don't forget the bakery hissy fit.

I didn't hear about that.  What happened?

[Peter the Lefty]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYqRB63Yh-4

Un...believable.  To think he's Labor's best hope.  Depressing (for me anyway.  Not for you )  What about Greg Combet, is he considered a viable future leader? 

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, being from the left didn't stop Gillard.  Then again, it was the right who installed her.  But is Combet from the soft left or more left of the left type?  And how about Nicola Roxon, is she seen as a potential future ALP leader?

[Peter the Lefty]

Wayne Swan would lose just as badly or worse than Gillard. If I'm correct, many often see him a laughingstock, and he'd be the first prime minister to never win an election since Billy McMahon (not to mention he'd likely lose his own seat). He'd probably be remembered as a joke in the history books. Then again, "the office, staff and driver for life" might convince Swanny to to do it anyway.

I agree with RogueBeaver though. I think Gillard will still be in place to lose the next election.

What do people here think of Defence Minister Stephen Smith? I keep on hearing him mentioned as a "saving the furniture" guy in the media, but does he actually have anything different to offer?

Not particularly, but he is safe and probably has backing of both wings of the party.

The heir apparent is without a doubt Shorten. Unfortunately Smid is right about the Right controlling the party's leadership.

That sucks.  Would the left have a shot at it if most of the MP's who loose their seats in 2013 are from the right?  'Cause it seems (correct me if I'm wrong) like the majority of MP's who are at risk of loosing their seats are from the right. 

[Peter the Lefty]

So the potential Labor leaders after Gillard looses to Abbot are:
A socially (and fiscally) conservative weirdo who seems like a porky pine (Swan)
A guy with the personality of a piece of cardboard (Smith)
An old guy who's already had a go leading the party (Crean)
A guy who's so loyal to his leader that he'll threaten a baker who's out of the thing that she wants and will unconditionally agree with her, and would likely demand the same loyalty from his front bench (Shorten)
An uncharismatic, though intelligent, nerd who was also instrumental in the implementation of the carbon tax (Combet)
Two nice folks from the left of the left who I like but are unelectable (Albanese and Plibersek)
If these are the ALP's next generation of leadership, then I would only be partially surprised if the ALP bleeds support to both sides until Australia has a Canada 2011-style re-alignment-of-the-left election within the next decade.  

[Peter the Lefty]

If you think that's possible then you don't really understand Australia.

Is the Australian two-party system as engrained as the American one?  Or is Australia just too conservative a country to make the Greens an opposition party? 

[Peter the Lefty]

If you think that's possible then you don't really understand Australia.

Is the Australian two-party system as engrained as the American one?  Or is Australia just too conservative a country to make the Greens an opposition party? 

The voting system doesn't work that way. Preferencing, remember? While they have serious psephostructural issues getting unseated as un des deux is pure fantasy.

Wouldn't a preferential system make it easier for them (since people don't have to worry about vote-splitting)?  I mean, people who'd voted Labor in the past could just make the Greens their first-preference vote and Labor their second, and if enough people would do that, their primary vote could surpass Labor's in a lot of electorates (in theory).  Or is the Australian system more complex than that? 

[Peter the Lefty]

The Labor Party is certainly more similar to our Democratic Party than any other political party in the world is.

Wow.  I take it Australia's a really conservative country, then?

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, not having a proportional system didn't stop the NDP from overtaking the Liberals in Canada.  And is there any chance of Andrew Leigh becoming Labor leader after the election, or does the fact that he isn't a member of either faction make it impossible?

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, not having a proportional system didn't stop the NDP from overtaking the Liberals in Canada. 

The relationship between the Liberals and the NDP in Canada is nothing like the ALP and the Greens. Nothing.

And again, Canada has FPTP which causes wave elections all the time in Canada. AV, which Australia has, is inherently designed to maintain a two-party system. The fact that their election results are given as "two-party preferred" says enough as it is.

Nothing?  The ALP is a centrist party (was once center-left, but as of the 1980's no longer is) which is currently are a minority government.  The Greens are a more left-wing party.  Even though they also need the independents, the ALP government (at least partially) relies on the Greens for survival, and is quite unpopular.  Surely that must sound something like the relationship between the Liberals and the NDP between 2004 and 2006, even though the Greens are unlikely to pull the plug on the government the way the NDP did.  And if the Greens' primary vote surpasses the ALP's, wouldn't the 2PP vote just change from Coalition vs. Labor to Coalition vs. Greens? 

[Peter the Lefty]

It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government. If they're at 60-65 seats post election, which seems about likely, someone along the lines of Andrew Laming, Jason Clare, at a stretch Mark Dreyfus.

Dude, Laming's a Liberal.

I meant Andrew Leigh, oops.

Yaayy!  I'm a big fan of his.  A true unabashed social democrat who isn't a slave to either faction.  Hope he becomes Labor leader and fixes up the party (both structurally and ideologically) and becomes PM. 

[Peter the Lefty]

It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government. If they're at 60-65 seats post election, which seems about likely, someone along the lines of Andrew Laming, Jason Clare, at a stretch Mark Dreyfus.

Dude, Laming's a Liberal.

I meant Andrew Leigh, oops.

Yaayy!  I'm a big fan of his.  A true unabashed social democrat who isn't a slave to either faction.  Hope he becomes Labor leader and fixes up the party (both structurally and ideologically) and becomes PM. 

Very smart man too - he's basically the Antony Green/Nate Silver/etc. of parliament.

If that's the case, guys like that have no business running the show, just pulling the strings come election time. Like a Peter Mandelson or a David Axelrod. They're just more effective that way.

Well, he's also very charismatic.  I suppose you could say he's both a head and a heart as well.  I'm guessing he's seen as far more ideologically in line with the Left faction than with the right?

[Peter the Lefty]

It's more that Australian Labor is basically left-in-that-it-isn't-as-right-wing-as-the-liberals.

I highly doubt anyone will replace Gillard before the next election, and if it were to be anyone it would need to be an old face like Crean.

Post election, Shorten is a possibility, although I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a bit of an unknown, and allowed them to build a brand new identity as Labor leader, untainted by the Gillard government.

Shorten has obviously had a few gaffes of late - eating humble pie, and not knowing what he supports, but I didn't think either were enough to stop him from becoming Leader. However... after yesterday's gaffe, I don't think he can ever become leader.

THANK GOD! 

[Peter the Lefty]

My God, that was great.  Gillard finally has shown she has guts.  Maybe she'll back gay marriage next?  Nah, I shouldn't get too hopeful. 

[Peter the Lefty]

I never thought I'd feel so sorry for Gillard, but suddenly I do.  It was an extremely slimy thing to do, stabbing Gillard in the back after she restored humility and gentility to the party's leadership (by all accounts, she treated her cabinet far better than Rudd did), and now they've stabbed her because they want to lose by a smaller margin.  Slimebuckets. 

And while I'm on a rant: Gillard, despite all her faults, has been a far better PM than Rudd was.  Australians have no idea how lucky they are to have an economy as healthy as the one they have compared to the rest of the world.  And while I'm not one to use the "bigotry" card easily, it's obvious that if Gillard were a man, her poll numbers would be far higher, probably higher than Rudd's. 

*Deep breaths, deep breaths*

[Peter the Lefty]

Okay, let me rephrase what I said.  Gillard's government is a trainwreck, no doubt about it.  But considering that basically every government in the world right now is a trainwreck, hers is actually probably the most minor one.  And the Aussie economy is a miracle compared to others in the world right now.  She at least deserves a bit of credit for that.  And even if she were a man, I'm still certain that she'd be behind Tony Abbott in the polls.  But she'd have better numbers than Rudd does.

[Peter the Lefty]

Rather tearjerking thing to watch.
http://m.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/your-father-would-be-proud-rob-oakeshott-tells-julia-gillard/story-fnhqeu0x-1226670902348

[Peter the Lefty]

With all the retirements from anti-Rudd MPs, does Rudd actually stand a good chance of hanging on as ALP leader after the likely Coalition win in the election?

Hopefully not.  The only reason they returned him to power was to mitigate the scale of their defeat.  They couldn't stand working under him before, and unless he actually has changed, they'll be eager to get rid of him once he's served his purpose of saving some of the furniture.

[Peter the Lefty]

Greg Combet is retiring from politics altogether:

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1783804/Greg-Combet-to-retire-from-politics

Quite sad to hear.  He was one of my favorite members of the cabinet.

[Peter the Lefty]

At least it's nice to see that Rudd's cabinet seems markedly more left-wing than Gillard's.