Australia General Discussion

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The polls seem to be rather bouncy depending on whether they're conducted early or later in the month, at least recently. If this trend continues and dare I say, Lab takes the lead then Abbott will be in deep trouble. So I'll wait a bit before worrying. Agreed w/Polnut and CS. However worst-case, who'd replace Abbott? Can't replace someone with no one. Nelson and Turnbull faceplanted as leader already, so  guess that leaves Hockey?

Nelson resigned from the house in 2009, so he's not coming back, and although he's more popular than Abbott. I can't see Turnbull coming back, considering that unlike John Howard, how who did come back as Liberal leader in 1995, Turnbull never led the Liberals to an election.

So if the Liberals are to change leader before the next election, which isn't too likely in my opinion, I can see Hockey becoming leader.

Even if Abbott wins he can't repeal it or the mining taxes without 39 Senate seats, which he might never get. Certainly not at this election.

Sadly, I think you're on the money here, RogueBeaver. Unless the Coalition wins 38 and does a deal with the DLP or Nick Xenophon.

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By-election in the NSW state electorate of Northern Tablelands today, will be interesting to see who wins. Northern Tablelands covers much of the same territory as the federal seat of New England.

While state and federal politics are very different, there's no doubt the result here tonight will give some indication of whether Windsor will hold on come September...

Also, R.I.P. Hazel Hawke, the former wife of former PM Bob Hawke passed away from Alzheimer's complications on Thursday. She will be missed, and although I don't agree with the Hawkes and Mr. Hawke's government, Mrs. Hawke was never afraid to make a stand, and that I can appreciate.

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Actually, considering this is an open election with a lot of candidates and without Tony Windsor's deep personal vote and Barnaby's profile being thrown into the mix... I would be very hesitant to put too much weight on the results.

It's not that they're not useful at all... but there are a lot of elements in this that are unrelated to the Federal Election.

Very true, it will be interesting to see who wins this very open race! Only a few hours to go now...

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With nearly 3/4 of the booths in, Northern Tablelands is a National gain. As Polnut said, without the presence of Windsor and Joyce, you can't take too much from this and apply it to what may happen in New England come September, although the Nationals doing well everywhere, even in Armidale, a university town. does say something.

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It's an impressive result, especially considering the NAT is what? 25? (he looks about 17... but I think he's mid-20s)

But the only thing I would say people should be thinking about - this is a natural NAT area - the ALP hasn't done well there in generations. They will instinctively vote NAT when there isn't a strong local Independent, and they have now.

The other thing in relation to Armidale, MOST Uni students who live away from home tend to keep their electoral enrolment at their family home. So yes, the NATs did better than normal - but it's not an electorate full of "lefty Uni types".

He's only 25? Good to see someone from my generation in Parliament from the Nationals! I figured this was a natural National electorate, although Labor did win Northern Tablelands in both 1981 and 1984 if I'm not mistaken. However, those elections, especially 1981, were good elections for the Labor party.

If the Nats were to gain an additional seat and get to 20 could they potentially have the power to challenge Labor to become official opposition in the highly unlikely event that they desert the Libs?

They could in theory, but considering the NSW Coalition is unlikely to collapse any time soon, this wouldn't happen.

As Antony Green and Polnut have pointed out, this was not a contest for New England, and Windsor's main support base is Tamworth, which did not vote tonight.

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Incoming Foreign Minister Julie Bishop cutting back on travel expenses:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bishop-cancels-first-class-tickets-to-new-york-20130913-2tq8p.html

All I can say is YES!

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Here's Abbott's new ministry:

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development - Warren Truss

Treasurer - Joe Hockey

Foreign Minister - Julie Bishop

Employment, Minister assisting the Prime Minister on the Public Service - Eric Abetz

Attorney-General, Arts - George Brandis

Finance - Mathias Cormann

Communications - Malcolm Turnbull

Indigenous Affairs - Nigel Scullion

Industry - Ian Macfarlane

Social Services - Kevin Andrews

Small Business - Bruce Billson

Trade and Investment - Andrew Robb

Health, Sport - Peter Dutton

Education - Christopher Pyne

Agriculture - Barnaby Joyce

Defence - David Johnston

Immigration and Border Protection - Scott Morrison

Environment - Greg Hunt

Disabilities and Aged Care - Mitch Fifield

Human Services - Marise Payne

Assistant Minister for Health - Fiona Nash

Assistant Minister for Immigration and Border Protection as well as Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Women - Michaelia Cash

Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister - Josh Frydenberg

Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Communications - Paul Fletcher

Chief Whip - Phillip Ruddock

Speaker - Bronwyn Bishop

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Yeah Tony Abbott isn't a misogynist .

Um, there are four women in the ministry, five including the Speaker. I think Mr. Abbott chose his ministry on merit, not on filling any quotas. And would a misogynist really choose a female as deputy party leader?

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Incoming Foreign Minister Julie Bishop cutting back on travel expenses:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bishop-cancels-first-class-tickets-to-new-york-20130913-2tq8p.html

All I can say is YES!

Gotta love those meaningless 'gestures' - reduction from First to Business probably lowers the cost from about $10k to $8k... it's good for the cheap seats through - hence their victory.

And Bishop will NEVER be leader ... if it was about merit and effectiveness - why isn't Kelly O'Dwyer at least a Parli Sec? You're telling me there wasn't ANY female talent in the junior pool worthy of elevation to Cabinet? Give me a break.

I was surprised O'Dwyer wasn't promoted, she ought to be, it was probably more about her faction (O'Dwyer being a wet, and this is coming from a dry) than her gender. While I do approve the cut from First to Business Class, they should have gone one step further to Economy Class.

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Forgive my ignorance, but what is an "econodry"?  I tried googling "Julie Bishop econodry", but all it gave me were links to Atlas posts by RogueBeaver. 

To add to what RogueBeaver said, the opposite of a dry is, predictably, a wet. The terms first came in use in 1980s Britain, coined by the late, great Margaret Thatcher herself to refer to the division in the UK Conservative Party.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wets_and_dries

The terms are used to a lesser degree in Australia and Canada, and probably New Zealand as well.

Someone who's economically dry, or fiscally conservative.

On a more solemn note, Keating's eulogy for the Unknown Soldier will be cast in bronze at the War Memorial.

While Paul Keating isn't one of my favourite PMs, that speech is easily one of the best I've read from an Australian PM.

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By-election in the NSW state seat of Miranda on October 19. Obviously Labor won't win, bit it will be interesting to see the swing, particularly as incumbent member Annesley wants to return to NRL administration.

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Fantastic.

Was trying to post about Shorten becoming Labor leader last night, but the forum wasn't working for me :S

I was expecting an Albanese victory though, considering his support amongst the Labor grassroots.

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Miranda state by-election in NSW tomorrow... who do you think will win?

I think the Liberals will hold, although there will be a large swing, given that Barry Collier is running for Labor again.

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Whoa! I know Barry Collier was (and will be again, by the looks of things), a popular member, but the swing in Miranda tonight was massive!

May this be a lesson to politicians of all colours who want to pull a "Screw you guys, I'm going home!", to quote Eric Cartman from TV's South Park, on their constituents.

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It's like Al said during the federal election - look at the swing patterns from the last election, then figure out the natural equilibrium - that seat was NEVER a Lib +21 seat, it's also not a +10 ALP seat - the swing not only re-established the natural equilibrium but also with the added elements of a by-election with a popular former member adding premiums.

The ALP cannot win the 2015 election - but the swings back across Sydney will be large, only because the swings in 2011 were hysterically large.

Do you think Miranda will stay red in 2015, now that Collier has won it back? It was a LIB +6.78 seat at the last election, and was Liberal in '84 and '95.

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When's the next NSW state Newspoll coming out? We can get a clearer picture then. It won't surprise me if Collier retires again.

The last NSW Newspoll was for the period covering April-June 2013, they may have skipped the July-September 2013 poll because of the federal election, so we may have to wait for the October-December poll to come out.

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Kevin Rudd is retiring from Parliament, can't say I'll miss him:

http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=924213&vId=

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Question for you Aussies:

Do you guys fill out your entire ballot or does it look more like:

[3] LNP
[1] Greens
[] Family First
[2] Labor
[] Katter's Australian
[] Palmer United

?

The short answer is no, that would be an informal ballot at a federal election.

It would also be an informal ballot in Victorian state elections, however would be formal in Queensland and NSW state elections, which operate under Optional Preferential Voting (OPV) rules. I can't answer about the other states.

Federal rules allow one box to remain blank, so long as all other boxes have been consecutively numbered, starting with a "1" (the blank box being assumed to be the voter's final preference). In that case, a blank box doesn't act as a "wild card" though - it can't be used to substitute any missing number, only the final missing number.

Coming from Western Australia myself, I can confirm you have to number all the boxes in our state elections, like you do in South Australia and the Northern Territory as well.

In the ACT, where they use proportional representation, the minimum number of preferences equals the number of vacancies in the electorate, either 5 or 7. Same in Tasmania, except all their seats return 5 members.

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Got it. Thanks guys

No problem

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Peter Cosgrove has been named Australia's next Governor-General, due to take over from Quentin Bryce in March.

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WA is going back to the polls on the 5th of April for the half-Senate election.

Hard to tell, although barring another "preference lottery", as some would call it, I except the traditional 3-3 left/right balance as the result. Might update my prediction with more detail closer to the date.

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Nielsen polling out with some expected and outright whacky results.

State Governments

VIC - ALP 53-47, this is pretty much where most people think this race is.

But ... NSW - ALP 51-49, that's a massive and inexplicable swing to the ALP. While I don't buy that the O'Farrell Government is in THAT much trouble, I do wonder what kind of impact Abbott et al is having on these state level numbers.

Considering the SA/TAS dynamics, they're not the best indicators at the moment.

I don't think the O'Farrell government has done anything controversial lately, but then again, given the corruption enquiries into 3 of the Central Coast state members...

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Just got this in my letterbox from the Palmer United Party:



I got a similar DVD in the mail last year for the general election too. Haven't watched this one yet, but I did watch last year's DVD.

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Last year, I met my local Palmer candidate at the railway station and told him how disappointed I was that I hadn't received the DVD and he promised to try to get me one. He failed to deliver. If you're not going to keep it, I think the National Library has a collection of election-related materials.

I didn't get one either! Granted, considering this was the result at my local booth...

At least PUP beat the crazies (Rise Up) at your booth Polnut!

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Howes quits AWU and the ALP executive. Admittedly I haven't been following for 6 months, but is there some sort of backstory here?

I'm not entirely sure myself, although I'm sure him missing out on Carr's old Senate seat would be part of the reason.

In other news, Clive Palmer and the Palmer United Party haven't paid a $5300 debt to a northern NSW club. The club hosted a calamari and chips night for the party.

I swear, Palmer is getting crazier and more imbecilic every day...