Australia General Discussion

[Hifly]

Roxon resigning is a major loss for Labor and Australia.

Why?

[Hifly]

Roxon resigning is a major loss for Labor and Australia.

Why?

She's incredibly smart.

Can you do any better than that?

[Hifly]

A recent poll has shown that Labor will lose both Blaxland and Chifley, which are safe seats held by margins of over over 12/13%. I wonder if this massive swing extends to Eastern Sydney and electorates such as Kingsford Smith (held by Peter Garrett).

[Hifly]

The poll was conducted by Fairfax/ReachTEL and surveyed 2550 voters over 4 western sydney electorates.

[Hifly]

Both McMahon and Werriwa were also polled (and are lost to the Liberals)
http://www.smh.com.au/data-point/wipeout-in-the-west-voters-want-rudd-20130301-2fbru.html

Another poll was conducted in Wayne Swan's seat of Lilley in Queensland.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/swan-will-lose-seat-without-rudd-as-labor-leader-poll-finds-20130303-2fe27.html

[Hifly]

The Western Australia Election is tomorrow (or today if you are in Australia ). The Liberals under Barnett are expected to win a landslide victory.
A poll today from Newspoll for The Australian shows that the Liberals/Nats are leading Labor 2PP 59.5% to 40.5%, which will allow Labor to lose around half its seats.

[Hifly]

The Western Australia Election is tomorrow (or today if you are in Australia ). The Liberals under Barnett are expected to win a landslide victory.
A poll today from Newspoll for The Australian shows that the Liberals/Nats are leading Labor 2PP 59.5% to 40.5%, which will allow Labor to lose around half its seats.

Actually most predictions don't predict too much change.

And you're wrong.

[Hifly]

Labor will lose about 12 seats federally is it continues the way it's going.

And you agreed with the notion that there would not be much change in the Western Australian Election.

[Hifly]

Brilliant employment report... over 50,000 jobs created in April, participation rate up and unemployment down to 5.5%...

Sorry to disappoint but that still won't help relieve Labor's woes

[Hifly]

If the Nats were to gain an additional seat and get to 20 could they potentially have the power to challenge Labor to become official opposition in the highly unlikely event that they desert the Libs?

[Hifly]

I'm extremely happy that Deb O'Neill will fill the casual vacancy, which is wholly necessary considering that Ursula Stephens lost her seat.
But more importantly, I highly commend Paul Howes for recognising that his liberal views on SSM are divisive within the party and his faction, and thus I support his decision to not contest the vacancy. There would also have been other PR issues with a union boss being parachuted into a senate seat as this would probably not have gone down well with the public.

[Hifly]

I would have MUCH preferred Kelly.

If he opposed SSM he would have had a better chance.

[Hifly]

Are they the same sources who said Labor was going to have a net gain of seats in Queensland?

[Hifly]

Very happy at the result. Not quite so happy that it looks as if Tanya Plibersek will be deputy leader.

[Hifly]

btw Polnut I think it's time to dump your sources; they are either bad or simply lying to you.

[Hifly]

I'm surprised that Don Farrell got a ministry position even though he is due to leave the senate in just a few months; I assume next summer he'll be replaced by someone like Chris Ketter or Joe Bullock.

[Hifly]

So the polls were right! I think I like Barry Collier.
Bob Carr is resigning on Monday apparently.

[Hifly]

I think points D, E and the Lib Council are most important in this case- didn't the same poll that foresaw this result also show O'Farrell and his govt. with a massive approval rate and strong lead over Robertson?
I also think that the result of this by-election has virtually killed the opportunity to remove & replace Robertson.
Polnut, what's your opinion of the opposition leader?

[Hifly]

When's the next NSW state Newspoll coming out? We can get a clearer picture then. It won't surprise me if Collier retires again.

[Hifly]

It's like Al said during the federal election - look at the swing patterns from the last election, then figure out the natural equilibrium - that seat was NEVER a Lib +21 seat, it's also not a +10 ALP seat - the swing not only re-established the natural equilibrium but also with the added elements of a by-election with a popular former member adding premiums.

The ALP cannot win the 2015 election - but the swings back across Sydney will be large, only because the swings in 2011 were hysterically large.

Do you think Miranda will stay red in 2015, now that Collier has won it back? It was a LIB +6.78 seat at the last election, and was Liberal in '84 and '95.

Honestly? Yes.

Even taking into account the boundary changes??

[Hifly]

It's a shame Tasmania doesn't use FPTP or the election would be even more exciting to watch.

[Hifly]

Mike Kelly has withdrawn from the Labor Senate vacancy contest following Carr's resignation.
 
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/mike-kelly-withdraws-from-senate-race-20131029-2wdcb.html

[Hifly]

And Deb O'Neill has now been selected by the NSW Labor Admin. Committee  to fill the double senate vacancy.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/deborah-oneill-selected-by-labor-to-fill-bob-carrs-senate-seat-20131030-2wh7y.html

That's another vote for traditional marriage in the Senate, and Labor caucus

[Hifly]

I got asked if I was interested in a job with Jacinta Collins, my immediate reaction was 'God no! (She's hifly in a (bad) dress!!!)'...

OMG literally?!?! If I was offered that I would be so ecstatic you wouldn't believe it. We're basically ideological twins.

I'm so jealous. What sort of job were you offered with her?

[Hifly]

Indeed - but I also said there are LNPers from QLD and WA that I'd work for before her.

Blasphemy!