IN: Both Long-Thompson and Schellinger ahead of Gov. Daniels
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  IN: Both Long-Thompson and Schellinger ahead of Gov. Daniels
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Author Topic: IN: Both Long-Thompson and Schellinger ahead of Gov. Daniels  (Read 2844 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: November 25, 2007, 01:54:10 AM »

Half of Hoosiers likely to vote in next year's election disapprove of Gov. Mitch Daniels' performance, and the two Democrats vying for Daniels' job have at least as much voter support as he does, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.
   
Rising property taxes, their personal finances, the lease of the Indiana Toll Road and the state's switch to daylight saving time all contributed to Daniels' disapproval rate, the poll of 600 Hoosiers found.

If the election were held today, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson and Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger could edge Daniels out, the poll found.

Of the 449 people surveyed who said they were likely to vote in the 2008 election, 44 percent said they would back Thompson if their choice was between Thompson and Daniels, while the governor received support from 43 percent of those surveyed.

In a match-up between Schellinger and Daniels, Schellinger was ahead 44 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error on the ballot choices was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, while the margin of error on other poll questions, including Daniels' approval rating, was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Daniels was elected in 2004, winning 53 percent of the vote over Democratic Gov. Joe Kernan. By March 2005, a poll taken for The Star showed 55 percent of voters approved of the job Daniels was doing.

But after a series of controversial issues -- including pushing for daylight saving time and leasing the Toll Road -- those numbers plummeted. A poll taken for The Star in March 2006 showed that 37 percent approved of the job Daniels was doing.

J. Ann Selzer, whose Iowa-based public opinion research firm Selzer & Co. conducted the new poll between Nov. 13-16, called Daniels' current 40 percent approval rating "dismal," reflecting the "sour" mood of the state.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071124/LOCAL19/711250359/-1/LOCAL17
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2007, 02:05:44 AM »

Prediction:

Giuliani/Huckabee: 52%
Clinton/Bayh: 47%

Long Thompson: 51%
Daniels: 48%
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2007, 02:16:19 AM »

I've been wondering Atlasians by a number of 44:2 have been predicting Daniels to win reelection when he has always been unpopular. But Daniels has similar to numbers to Matt Blunt, who is losing 41:5. I predict both will lose, but there's no real explanation for that disrepency.

Of course looks like up until now Tender was one as well predicting Blunt losing and Daniels winning. Maybe he'll change that now.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2007, 02:49:51 AM »

I don't think a call of Daniels losing/winning or of Blunt losing/winning is unreasonable.

Personally, I'm going to keep my prediction of a Daniels win here, because (1) the poll shows him back by only 1%, and (2) Long-Thompson is just a plain ol' bad candidate.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2007, 11:13:10 AM »

Prediction:

Giuliani/Huckabee: 52%
Clinton/Bayh: 47%

Long Thompson: 51%
Daniels: 48%

If this is the case, Baron Hill will likely be reelected. 
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2007, 02:09:24 PM »

I've been wondering Atlasians by a number of 44:2 have been predicting Daniels to win reelection when he has always been unpopular. But Daniels has similar to numbers to Matt Blunt, who is losing 41:5. I predict both will lose, but there's no real explanation for that disrepency.

Of course looks like up until now Tender was one as well predicting Blunt losing and Daniels winning. Maybe he'll change that now.

I think Daniels has a better chance of being re-elected than Blunt because Indiana is a much more Republican state than Missouri. Indiana is, barring a major shift, going to go for the Republican Presidential candidate by double-digits, which will help Daniels, whereas Missouri is very much a tossup, which will not do any favors for Blunt.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2007, 05:34:47 PM »

Prediction:

Giuliani/Huckabee: 52%
Clinton/Bayh: 47%

Long Thompson: 51%
Daniels: 48%

If this is the case, Baron Hill will likely be reelected. 

Except for the thing about that whole scenario being very unlikely.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2007, 11:42:24 AM »

Personally, I'm going to keep my prediction of a Daniels win here, because (1) the poll shows him back by only 1%, and (2) Long-Thompson is just a plain ol' bad candidate.

(3) It's Selzer & Co.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2007, 02:07:45 PM »

I've been wondering Atlasians by a number of 44:2 have been predicting Daniels to win reelection when he has always been unpopular. But Daniels has similar to numbers to Matt Blunt, who is losing 41:5. I predict both will lose, but there's no real explanation for that disrepency.

Of course looks like up until now Tender was one as well predicting Blunt losing and Daniels winning. Maybe he'll change that now.

Daniels:Dems is now 42:9 with 16 people predicting a tossup.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2007, 10:13:50 AM »

IN is a tossup now, but Daniels still has a narrow advantage in the polls, but at this point it can go either way.
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